Villain in hand runs at 17/9/2.6 The turn card is gross but Im not sure I can get away from this hand no matter how it turns out. C/f seems pretty weak and I cant b/f any reasonable amount.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

Hero ($59.90)
UTG ($28.40)
MP ($48.95)
Button ($50.75)
SB ($157.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, A.
1 fold, MP raises to $1.75, 2 folds, Hero raises to $7.5, MP calls $5.25.

Flop: ($14.75) J, 7, 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $8, MP calls $8.

Turn: ($30.75) Q (2 players)
<font color="#CC3333">Hero....

Bet more on the flop, $10 is about right. OTT, bet $20 and get it in.

I 1/2 pot with air and I 1/2 pot with overpairs, I just like the way it works out but maybe I will give 2/3 a try, seems like a much higher variance move in general though.

I'm betting like 23 on the turn and calling a shove.

flop cbet is fine, we dont have to bet too much

i bet strong on the turn

You guys realize that now JJ and QQ beat me right? Is it such a simple b/c?

honestly, I think this is about the only thing you can really do. I don't like a c/f and I think you're fairly committed once you put anymore money into the pot. I don't believe I'm good enough to lay this down if I'm beat

Its not really about being good enough to fold but about being committed or not. C/f seems incredibly weak tight and b/f isnt allowed by stacks. I could c/c but then Im going to have to c/c the river also and at that point I might as well just b/c and hope he pays off with worse.

yeah, but you beat AK, KK, AQ, AJ/TT(possible?). I don't think this is an easy spot at all

KK is likely, AK I will say is here once in a while, AQ rarely, AJ definitely is possible, and TT probably is also but is going to probably fold this turn. I guess what Im thinking is that realistically, only two of those hands pay off a turn bet and of those two, one of them are rarely here.

I'd have bet more on the flop and just throw it in on the turn

If we are b/c, isn't it better to c/rai since the board doesnt have many draws ? By c/rai I think we extract much more value from the hands we beat.

I dont think there is much merit to crai because he is going to check behind all the hands we beat, Im not sure why he would turn any of those into a bluff. Also all the people who shove the turn, what is your reasoning? Just understand that we are pretty much relying on one hand to pay us I think. There could be merit to c/c turn and if that gets checked through then vb the river. If I vb the river and he shoves theres still no folding though so meh.

anymore thoughts?

Based on the PF and flop, it makes sense to worry about sets. When I'm in this situation and my cbet gets called, I hate it. vs reasonable villain, you are prolly beat. But I am always shocked by the hands people are calling 3bets with PF. I see so many hands that aren't PPs here. Fact that you have AA makes AJ less likely here than if you had KK, but still I can't believe the crap that some people call 3bets with. Sometime I see QJ and then I puke and add villain to my buddies list.

Cbet size is fine with dry board. You're way ahead of his range here, and you are more likely to get called by people who think your cbet is weak and don't realize it doesn't need to be any bigger to play for stacks.

I think you have to commit here because c/f is so weak. I don't mind CRAI here. I have done it in similar situations (when I was tilting and real pissed he called flop and figured I was beat) and had villain fold, and I thought, WTF can he call flop with and then bet turn that doesn't all my c/r, but I am always surprised by how horrible some people can be.

If this guy can float you in 3bet pot, then CRAI is good, but I think this is unlikely. If I were villain OTB and you were SB and had been 3betting my steal opens a lot, I can float here and bet turn with nothing, but I doubt villain is doing that here.

We dont have anywhere close to enough history to make him floating the flop reasonable. He might, but it doesnt seem likely. Its funny because you guessed his exact hand but Im curious in general if its best to c/c as opposed to b/c. I dont think crai is great because he checks behind alot of hands we beat (I think) and he then definitely folds out the hands we want in there (I think).

I really would like to know what sort of range to give people who call reasonably-sized 3bets PF. I want to put them on set mining PPs and sometimes AK if they have position, but they always shock me with the crap they call with. I threw QJ out there because it seemed like the most ridiculous hand anyone could have in that situation, so that's what they usually show up with, but how can you put them on that.

Well the 3 bet is definitely big enough to make set mining not profitable, thats the most I can do.

Agreed. His call pf is horrible with JJ. Even worse with QJ.

i think QJ and even K/J in hes range so its b/c

pretty sure this guy is too nitty to bet/call the turn all in. I think I'd just check/fold or at least check/raise all in. I would say betting atm is the worst option since if he did float you light (with TT or AJ) he'll just dump it on the turn to the 2nd bet. The only advantage is if he thinks ur bad enough to bet AK on the turn.....

you dont think c/f here is pretty weak tight?

I really doubt a 17/9/3 is peeling that flop with air very often. So that means he's peeling at the widest AJ/JJ/QQ/KK/AA.

On the turn you beat AJ/KK and the occasional float. But really I doubt he's raise/calling preflop with AJ. You could stove it I guess and see how your doing against 1-&gt;2 AJ hands and all the other set hands. But really his AF is too high and his preflop stats too nitty to make me want to bet here.

My other point is I'd rather get it in as a check/raise all in rather than a bet/call because I don't think your ahead of his range often enough if you give him another chance to fold the turn. If he checks back the turn he has either KK/AK almost always.

yeah I stoved it for you and your 50/50ish versus 2-4 AJ hands and JJ+. FWIW I think he's more likely to overcall with 77-&gt;TT preflop than to overcall with somethin as trashy as AJ. Even he should realize AJ is junk. Which just leans his range even more on the turn to set/underpair/overpair rather than top pair/overpair/set

I agree with your range 100%. I also agree with your analysis, I guess I just hate c/f here. Is there any merit to c/c in your opinion? Crai seems to blow him off any hands I want in there, no?