Villain was running 20/7, but I'd only been at the table for 30 hands. I haven't seen any of his hands at showdown and the only hand he's seen me show down was a 3 way all in when I flopped a monster (2 overs + FD with KQs).

I'm not sure what to do on the flop when he raises my cbet b/c if he bets big on the turn then I'm not really comfortable playing for stacks this deep on that board. I realize it's not much of a raise but the pot is huge, I'm OOP and we're deep. Fold or call? If you vote for calling the raise, then what would you do on a blank turn?


Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: $50.00
Hero (BB): $148.75
UTG: $131.00
CO: $137.20
BTN: $90.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with A A
UTG raises to $1.50, CO calls $1.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $7.50, 1 fold, CO calls $6

Flop: ($16.75) 5 Q K (2 players)
Hero bets $9, CO raises to $21

i would at least call here, the guy easily has something like AK or KJs. It's possible he has KQ or maybe J10c, but I think you have to call

Call, you have ace of spades. There are a lot of great turns that you can put pressure on villain. If he has a set, so be it, but you have to call flop at the very least and re-evaluate turn.

Wow, pretty ridiculous. I think it's a very-sigh fold.

I think his range is really thin. KK-QQ, AKs, KQs, KcJc, AKo, KQo... remove KK if we think he 4-bets pre, and that leaves QQ, AKs, KQs, KcJc, AKo, KQo.

He's not doing this with AQ. You have the nut flush blocker, and we can account for the Qc, so there might not even be 1 credible flush draw in his range... KcJc is possible, so let's include that for now.

We have 44% equity against the range with QQ+, and 48% equity against the range with only QQ.

Playing this hand is going to be super difficult out of position. I don't know what calling the flop does for us... what do we do next if we call flop? Check/fold the turn? That seems super exploitable, doesn't define villain's range at all, and doesn't make much sense to me. And planning to bet/folding the turn seems ridiculous, obviously. Check/call turn equally bad and entering into RIO territory.

I don't really see a good turn/river game plan if we calling flop oop, but maybe I'm wrong. How would people play it after calling flop? I don't really like calling. I think it's 3-bet/get it in, or fold.

If you 3-bet the flop here KNOWING that he'll call/you'll get it in, you would need 46% equity to have a good play. If we accept that his range is QQ, AKs, KQs, KcJc, AKo, KQo and that he pays off the hands we beat, then it's just barely +EV.

It's super marginal though. And I'm not totally sure he'd pay us off with AK all the time. So I think it's a just a fold.

Okay, so say the turn is 7d then what do you do? Lead the turn? Check and see how much he bets? How much are you willing to c/c on the turn?

^^^ my question as well.

Nice post ! TY!

Willyoman, you forgot to put 55 in the range. I think it's pretty standard to call with pairs this deep. I would also add JTs/JTo in his range.

The concept of waiting for the virtual nuts to play vs a villain makes me cringe. Play PLO to nuthug. Now back to the hand.... $9 into $16.75 seems pretty weak, why didn't make it more?

The As gives me confidence in this hand. If a 7d appears on the turn, what part of his range will he fire with? Any set he's value betting you.... My hunch is that he will slow down the vast majority of the rest of his range. So the flop will be b/c, turn c/f (to any reasonable bet), if there's another blank on the river will re-evaluate between a small value bet or c/c'ing. You are both playing deep, it has to affect him as well.

You know, I thought villain was the initial UTG raiser, not the the CO flat caller. Definitely affects his range. Yeah, of course 55 is there.. and AK and QQ are less likely, though possible. And yeah, JcTc is possible but probably a somewhat loose call pre-flop @ > 4% of effective stacks oop.

What is the range your putting him on? I don't think he ever has KK, QQ, or 55 here, QQ is possible though. If you fold here your basically giving him credit for exactly QQ.

I would call here and re-evauluate the turn for sure. Combo wise he has a lot of worse hands here then better hands.

We're deep, it's very easy for him to have QQ/55/JTcc/ATcc/T9cc/KQ.

:/

Okay turn is a 2o and he bets $40, your move?

Good explanation. At first glance here it seemed as though its a call without thinking much. If you really think deeper it becomes much closer to a fold.

Do you think he ever has air here? I guess readless we have to look at what he's trying to tell us correct which is QQ or KQ?

Do you think a 20/7 raises 55 JTs or T9s UTG and calls a large 3-bet?

BUT to answer your question I see your point, we don't really have a legit plan if we call here I stand corrected :P.

20/7 after only 30 hands, basically irrelevant stats.

$40 bet on turn w. a 2 is a fold. But why oh why is everyone assuming that the villain bets out big on the turn?

QQ/KK are out of his range 95% of the time, he would 3bet those to the 1st raiser.

we are only scared of 55 and KQ . call and ship a safe turn imo.

I think it's close. If Villain is any good, he knows he's putting you in a very tough spot when he raises here. What's your image? Does he have any reason to believe you are 3betting light? If you have any reason to believe he is playing back at you, I wouldn't feel bad about getting it in - either on the flop or by check-shoving on a blank turn (I think I prefer the latter). Otherwise, if 20/7 is everything you've got - this doesn't seem to be the kind of player to make an elaborate bluff. (30 hands is not a lot, but it's enough to give us an idea of his preflop tendencies.) I think folding is fine in that case. Calling and then making a decision based on his turn/river bet sizing is probably fine as well - we are basically hoping he has AK if we do this.

why do u say that¿

wait wat? we are deep enough for villain to call with any pair IP. I would call flop and fold to a large turnbet. I do think it's quite possible for villain to still have AK and take a pot control line on the turn so I don't see any merit in folding AA so quickly even given stacksizes.

Thank you for correcting me forgot about stack sizes going to bed when tired FTW.

Well, fwiw, this is what happpened. I just felt dumb for calling on the flop to re-evaluate when I was uncomfortable felting 1P vs.villain that deep on that board when a blank turn hit. Thanks for the responses.


Poker Stars $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: $50.00
Hero (BB): $148.75
UTG: $131.00
CO: $137.20
BTN: $90.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with A A
UTG raises to $1.50, CO calls $1.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $7.50, 1 fold, CO calls $6

Flop: ($16.75) 5 Q K (2 players)
Hero bets $9.00, CO raises to $21, Hero calls $12

Turn: ($58.75) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $45.50, Hero folds

Final Pot: $58.75
CO wins $56.75
(Rake: $2.00)

This is fine imo.

Incidentally, this is why it is said you should be more out of line deep as a villain.

Why do people keep talking about UTG, VILLAIN WAS IN THE CO, given his 20/7 stats, and the fact that he flatted both times preflop that definitely widens his range, certainly to the point where 55 is more likely at this point than QQ

In this situation I really dont think he has KKs/QQs KKs re pops you pre flop and maybe QQs flat call, but if he has QQs why wouldn't he re raise pre flop flop against a BB in position. But it makes alot of sense to flat call with QQs/ 55s/Jts/KQo/AK w/ K of clubs.

Is it possible at all that the CO could be making a play here with a non 2p+ hand (maybe A K with the K of clubs). For someone who played so strong pre flop the flop bet was very weak and maybe the CO felt he could put you in a bad spot by raising the flop IP. I am not sure how good the Co is but you have to play your hand I would def raise the turn and if he sucked out on you thnen you have to pay him off. You cannot fold big pairs just because the CO min raised you on the flop, thats weak tight poker.

Calling isn't good imo.. your hand isn't going to change on the turn, just the same decision for more money. Decide wether you want to commit or not. So we're hoping to see a hand like AK that is raising on the flop? Which other hands are doing this that we beat? Not many imo, fold flop.