30/20 only 10 hands

[converted_hand][hand_history]IPoker, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
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Hero (SB): $57.16 (114.3 bb)
BB: $53.30 (106.6 bb)
UTG: $51.67 (103.3 bb)
MP: $21.27 (42.5 bb)
CO: $62.87 (125.7 bb)
BTN: $49.75 (99.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7 6
UTG folds, MP calls $0.50, CO raises to $2, BTN folds, Hero raises to $6, 2 folds, CO calls $4

Flop: ($13) 6 4 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: ($13) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $8.26, Hero calls $8.26

River: ($29.52) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $21.04

He's capped and you're not. Bet the flop and turn and be done with it if he persists.

Very easy for villain to stab to much air type hands and gutshots etc on the flop like JT T9 A5.
AQ KQ will be a big part of his unbalanced check back range + some traps. So easy fold i think as played.
Alternativly you could start putting pressure on him yourself like nonsimplesimon mentioned so bet and bluff some turn and river runouts i find also good with your blockers to nutted hands and alot of eq.
I would recomend adding your thoughprocess when you post a hand like why you decided to check etc.

Preflop is already a rare 3bet SBvsCO, I would avoid vs an unknown opponent who isolates a limper (their range is presumably stronger than a simple open).

Just call preflop.

As played, standard call down.

Four good data points here over the aggregate which is already overbluffed:



1. Missed FD 2tone board



2. Low flop



3. Flop connected with straight



4. Low Flop----->Turn Overcard

What are the stats for? I don't think whatever stats over 10 hands tells us much

MDA is interesting but this isn't a standard 3b pot and iso/call is presumably tighter. X-b70-B is only overbluffed if REG? Are we saying it's a reg because of iso?

Suspect unless you know you crush postflop calling or raising here is likely -EV, than just folding pre.

Yes bet flop/turn seems fine for value/protection... But if he call flop and turn, and River miss the flush, I have to check call or check fold? Btw preflop seems better only call

process on river would be just to count the potential combos that he could bluff and what is he left with in terms of value. Then based on the odds i get i call or fold so for exampel on this runout if we would bet flop and turn we would need to check river here winning vs Ax fd.
Then i just look what he would bet for value and bluffs so value here Qx+ but even with weaker qx i think population is not going thin enough for value.
So he will have in this line around 3-4 combos sets (not including 44 think it is not isolating often enough) and other sets raise flop or turn sometimes and we bock 66.
Qx he has AQo with a in club some freq. AQs KQs QJs QTs clubs and best qx with bdfd. So in generall i would give hime around 10combos in total but i expect QT QJ to be to nitty often and also the weaker backdoor fd would fold because we would bet big flop if we bet no small bets. so around 7 combos.
So lets say 11 combos value but lets be carefull and say 12 combos
If we go for the line b 2/3 turn 50-60% (wich makes sense with very high freq) we will be left with around 50% potsize on river wich is intresting villain is supposed to not bluff much when he bets.
He can have 25% bluffs so 4 bluffs with 12 combos of value.
He has in this line probably always T9s no clubs so 3 combos and at around 1-2 combos of A5s. Other then that he has KJ KT JT A5 T9s in clubs that he could potentialy bluff so i think easy call then.
I think MDA is a great way of simplyfing our decisions but here i think just following the ranges and counting combos is the best was to make a good play like ceres mentioned it is a specific spot.