early in game so far villain is donking many many flops and appears to be aggressive, not seen too many turns yet
he clicks buttons very quickly
so far his prf stats are standard

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (2 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

WS (SB) ($600)
BB ($992.50)

Preflop: WS is SB with Q, Q
WS bets $18, BB calls $12

Flop: ($36) 9, A, A (2 players)
BB bets $24, WS calls $24

Turn: ($84) 2 (2 players)
BB bets $65, WS calls $65

River: ($214) 3 (2 players)
BB bets $350, WS?

he outplayed u son. you should raise flop or turn.

bleh.. I guess I'd call and make a note. Did he donk dry flops exclusivly?

easy call early

Mathematically speaking you can safely fold 62% (350/(350+214)) of your range and not allow the villain to print money (i.e. run you over) by using this line while holding garbage

So I guess this question reduces to "is QQ higher than the 63% percentile in your range?"

I'll bet QQ is far below the 63 percentile....

You probably open 100% of Ax hands. Then you probably smooth call any donk nearly 100% of the time. So by the turn you still have very nearly all of the Ax combos in your range. But what do you do on the turn? If you raise Ax on the turn then QQ is now at the tip-top of your range and you should call if you want to prevent the villain from running you over with this line. However, if you also smooth call the turn with Ax then you arrive at the river with a range probably close to :

99, All Ax combos, KK,QQ,JJ,TT (and maybe a few 9s....). Given that there are 90 possible combos of Ax you can easily fold QQ in this spot because it is near the bottom of your range.

^ lol can I hire u??

I'm hoping to get better. If there is something ****** above I'd like to be informed.

pls dont post more

Great post.

Just to note that Ax without A or A: 3.7% of 100% of the hands.

While if you could use the A and A: 14.9% of 100% of the hands.

Num combos of Ax on a 9h Ad As 2h 3d board = ...
52 cards - 5 board cards = 47 unknown cards.
of 47 unknown cards 45 are not Aces, 2 are Aces.
2 * 45 = 90 = 90 combos of Ax

Thank you,
I can't recompute your numbers (I suspect they are wrong).

sure. nuff said

Yeah, the first one should be a little less than half 14,9%.

No. our strategy is not to break even, our strategy is to extract maximum value out of our bets and calls. This is similar to encountering someone who's open jamming every hand 100bb deep. Sure you can call w JJ+/AK and show a profit but assuming you have a 40 bi roll folding stuff like A9 or 77 will still be a mistake

we have plenty of 9s obviously lol

i probably end up clicking fold, don't see ppl bluff here

yah fold river son

on which street are you folding and why?

great post

It's not at all similar to open jamming every hand 100BBs deep. In this hypothetical situation we have seen the villain open push many times and have some basis to widen our calling range.


In the situation WhateverSon posted about he has only stated that the villain donked frequently over a very small sample. We haven't observed enough hands to warrant a huge deviation in strategy.

If you believe (correctly) that a frequent donker is likely to 3-barrel his entire range -- thus making all the hands that beat QQ an insignificant portion of his river betting range -- then you have a case for widening your range.


However, note:

Yeah, this would definitely be my standard to start

the problem w your thinking is that you're not trying to make the max EV play w your range but you're trying to create a 0 EV situation by pitting your range against villain's. yes, calling w top 36% of your range or w/e you were saying can be +EV but sometimes in this type of situation your range will simply crush villain's and satisfying w this type of thinking is not gonna elicit max EV

that has nothing to do w what I was saying even tho I puke fold too. I'm not talking about this hand in specific, I'm saying that your line of thinking has problems

yeah math is kool and all but i still think its a call vs a frequent donker early on.
he can easily have worse for value, missed turn draws, purebluffs. i agree vs a known reg this becomes a fold but vs an unknown w/ fishy tendencies i call

he expects you to call with ax so do the opposite

call with worse?

hes barreling me off a 9
or hes maximizing value

which is it?