I've been debating my call here even though I was ahead because of the ICM implications making it high risk.

I knew the other player was a bit of a maniac and Agresssive/Agressive.
He reraised with any ace or pair at least.
He is most likely a level 1-2 thinking player that does not think much about what hand I may hold, only his own, from my observations.
Slow played big hands and was super agrro with average hands.

I put him on a PP from 5's to maybe 10's
So I figured I was ahead (as I was).
I was 60% to win on the flop with two cards to come.
Should I fold here anyways against such an over shove EVER?

Thoughts?

Full Tilt Poker, NL Hold'em Tournament, 30/60 Blinds, 2 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): 3,220
SB: 2,780

Pre-Flop: (90) A K dealt to Hero (BB)
SB calls 30, Hero raises to 180, SB raises to 480, Hero calls 300

Flop: (960) J 6 Q (2 Players)
Hero checks, SB bets 2,300 and is All-In, Hero calls 2,300

Turn: (5,560) 3 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

River: (5,560) 2 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: 5,560 Pot
Hero showed A K (Ace King high) and LOST (-2,780 NET)
SB showed 7 7 (a pair of Sevens) and WON 5,560 (+2,780 NET)

**** no!

Shove preflop also IMO.

next time b/3b against this person

ICM should not be mentioned in the heads up forum.

Edges are good for you.

No ICM Jay?

3 betting and shoving is questionable here. What are your motives?
What are you trying to do with that push?
Maybe for a more passive Level 2/3 thinking player... but not an aggro L1/2

My thinking:
He is aggro L1/2 thinking player.
He will call a push with any hand he raises.
What is profitable about getting super involved here pre?
I elect to control the pot size and play my opponent post flop.

I have a big edge over this guy. I know how he plays and how to trap him. Why coin toss when I have an advantage that can crush him. Why gamble when there is no need and I can control the pot and re-evaluate according to my reads post flop?

I am not looking to get all in pre in MOST cases with stacks so close and a good edge on this guy.


So what thinking are you following?

Holy ****, if he's aggro AND calling w any hand he's raising pre then you need to ship this PF ASAP.

Going back to your first question... 60% to win, fold anyways. Anytime you are 60% to win and fold you are doing yourself a disservice. This isn't the main event of the world series or some special tourney. these are HU sngs where pushing small edges repeatedly will earn you great profits, assuming you are using correct bankroll management. One exception might be if you are playing someone in the bottom 2-3% of players you ever play and know he will just give his money away later. However in most cases, blinds escalate and people go back wishing they could take their 60% edge they passed on.

See Chicago, I will usually be making that kind play when I get him down a bit like 2-1 or so once I have that kind of read. I don't want to flip a coin and end up with 200 chips to fight back with...

In most situations I would do the same but here its a little different...

Let me explain this a little differently...

Imagine I know that I have a 75% advantage over this player as a fact overall.
So 75% of the time I am going to win against this player.
Would you still take the 60/40 for stacks so close in value in a shootout that pays 2nd nothing and first 4x the original buy in?

This is where ICM comes into play as well I believe...

Where is the line between profitable and unprofitable once given that kind of information?


For any other player where overall advantage would be virtually unknown or less than 60% this should always be a call, right?

But given the information that you can use your skills to overpower the villain here and you don't have to get your money in on a draw, wouldn't there be a good case for folding?

zzzzzzzzzz I hate these posts. cwar, can you add something to the FAQ about this? and lock?

basically, even though i have 60% to win mathematically on that flop... is there more to consider that would change my overall win % against this player?

More than hand hitting stats....

excuse me? what is THIS kind of post?

should I post under theory or something? I mean really. This is very relevant to my game.

Personally, my consideration ends right about there.

Mine too. 60% isn't a "barely cutting it" winrate. 60% is pretty damn good. If you regularly pass on 60% edges, the chances are pretty slim that there's any single player out there that you have a 75% advantage over anyway.

60% is borderline crushing. I think a villain who shoved any two would have more than 25% equity, so I sincerely doubt OP can get his proclaimed 75%.

So then why were you not shoving all in preflop?

He thinks he can get a better edge some other way. Like not getting it in on this flop, for instance, or perhaps c/fing when Ax fires the blank flop.

Get the money in with a very significant edge.

I have to say the 99% of the time there is no question...

He isn't shoving with any two but with any two he 3bets...

But anyways...
the overall rule is take the 60%
but rarely, there may be a CASE for a fold that would be profitable...

again, this is a RARE, RARE instance...

but it is something to think about in a deep HUSO

You're 40bb deep, that is not deep.

I'm never going to think about it, and I doubt I'm missing out on anything.