Here, I have two very similar examples. I've mentally done some EV calculations - the kind I would do at the table and I would come up with a % of the time he needs to fold and go from there. I would like to know if my assessments are on target in these hands.

Both villains are similar, they are really the only type of player at 5NL I try to semi-bluff: the lovable weak-Regs. This one was actually a weak LAG opening a TON on the button.

Full Tilt Poker $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BTN: $8.46
SB: $5.50
Hero (BB): $12.33
UTG: $5.54
CO: $6.71

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is BB with 9 J
2 folds, BTN raises to $0.20, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.65, BTN calls $0.45

Flop: ($1.32) T 3 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $1, Hero raises to $3.35, BTN calls $2.35

Turn: ($8.02) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $8.33 all in

With my quick fold EV calculations, I estimated that I villain needs to find a fold ~35% of the time for this to be profitable. I might do the hard calculations in a minute.

This 2nd hand is so similar, villain was a level 1 thinking 18/15 TAG. I've pretty much dominated him so I think he actually is afraid of me.

Full Tilt Poker $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG: $6.01
MP: $1.29
CO: $5.12
BTN: $5.74
SB: $0.79
Hero (BB): $5.31

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is BB with T A
1 fold, MP calls $0.05, CO raises to $0.20, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.70, 1 fold, CO calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.47) 8 9 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.75, CO calls $0.75

Turn: ($2.97) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $3.86 all in, CO requests TIME, CO says "AA or KK?"

This time... I have more equity but there isn't as much dead money. I didn't estimate fold EV here, because I think I have 16 outs... I probably have ~30% equity vs his calling range but still need him to fold a little more than 40% of the time? Is my guess correct? Also... probably should have bet more on the flop. I was 8 tabling so I dunno where that bet size came from. I'd normally do .90-1.00 which puts more dead money in by the turn.

you are alot better than I was at analaysing plays at 5nl

Thanks. I'd trade a bit of that to not be a calling station. Although, I'm not one when I try not to be.

These hands look great kaos

I'm a station too

I'm a station, you're a station, we're a station. Wouldn't you like to not be a station too?

gateswi is more station imo

what a station

Just take the bluffing part off villains range and when things dont make sense... put it back on the table.

I always love your advice and I've never heard anything like this before. I'll try it.

I've actually done something like that Vithel. I tell myself 'look man, this guy is not trying to bluff you off TPTK, he has a set and he's taken the standard c/c + c/r line. Yes yes he could conceivably know that he reps a strong range and be making a play but for chrisakes you have 15 hands on him'

It's always a thoughtful call too... thoughtful in a way that I know I'm beat but call anyways. That's the sick part. It never works out well though. I can't remember the last time I stacked someone with a call, tbh.

Anything about the hand? Besides the flop bet size in #2, are these standard good moves?

Would you call this one on villains shoes?


Full Tilt Poker $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: $10.00
BB: $4.64
UTG: $10.15
MP: $23.26
CO: $10.35 (Hero)
BTN: $9.69 (Villain)

Pre Flop: ($0.15)
2 folds, CO raises to $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, 1 fold, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.95) 4 T K (3 players)
BB checks, CO bets $0.70, BTN calls $0.70, BB folds

Turn: ($2.35) 9 (2 players)
CO checks, BTN bets $2.35, CO raises to $9.35 all in

BTN (villain in this hand) was holding K8

I was CO (results later)

Without history or other indications that villain is the type to make big semi-bluffs on the turn.(The same kind of bluffs posted in this thread ) Never. Once we develop that history, the spot doesn't get much easier though.

I like both hands, of course you cant do this against random fish for profit, but vs non autoclicking button regs (Hand 1 especially, Hand 2 is fine) its ok.

PS: move up, you are way ahead NL5, take a shot at NL10

Also, to analyze your hand a bit better. I wouldn't even call this vs you. (and I assume you are more than capable of making turn semi-bluffs) This is because KsXs hands make up a large portion of your range. Just as much as sets and 8s9s or 9sJs. If you are bluff raising these hands 100% of the time(a real possibility), then it's so balanced that I'm crushed 60-75% of the time and a 75% favorite 30-25% of the time.

If you add total air to your range, then you're insane and eventually I would pick up on that read and exploit it.

Edit, we posted at the same time; I've done 10NL. I'm a huge winner this past week but the first shot I took, I lost 5 BI. Now, I am at 100$ bankroll and 2 table it if I feel good and warmed up. Thank you much for the compliment also.

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, 1 fold, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.95) 4 T K (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.70, BTN calls $0.70, BB folds

Turn: ($2.35) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $2.35, Hero raises to $9.35 all in, BTN calls $6.34 all in

River: ($19.73) J (2 players - 2 are all in)



Like i said, i took exactly your line of thinking, and he called, and i didnt hit... meh, still an EV+ play i guess.

Yeah, the As9s draw was your best combo draw too. I thought about editing that into my post in your range.

This kind of fits into the 25o thread, villains just don't fold TP. Though, I'm pretty sure my villain in hand #2 folded JJ-QQ. Hand #1, I have no idea what he had - he had a very, very wide 3bet calling range.

just bet hand 1 dont c/r if he checks back his 1 pair it eats big into your equity.

hand 2 is standard

I'm sorry, I made a really bad OP. We had some history of me 3betting him from the blinds and this is how I know he's flatting me lite. He also bet every time I checked. I was certain he would bet his entire range. That's the big reason for the check/raise.

A second reason is that I hate cbetting because when he raises - I'm in a **** situation without initiative and unwilling to ship it in on the flop. This deep, I really want to keep initiative and set myself up to have the most FEq possible.

Does this sound right? Please correct any faulty thought processes.

No I'd snap fold but I wouldn't have K8s in that position either... lol

#1) fine given the read about villain autobetting the flop when checked to
#2) $1 instead on flop like you said. standard otherwise. tip: talking online shows strength so say something back to him. i'd say 'close' 'cmon call' or whatever.

move up, you are way better than 5NL. havent read enough of your posts to know for sure but seems like you should do fine at 25NL. looks like u are thinking of the math parts a lot, attempting to estimate FE %. just wanted to say that being able to do that isnt an important part of poker at uNL. understanding a few simple FE% situations then adjusting a bit for the current hand is overkill even.

this

nice plays by the OP, but this level of thinking will sometimes get you into trouble at NL5 where some people just play their cards no matter what...
Your skill is so high, your burning money by playing these stakes, when you could be pulling in simillar BB/100 higher up.

Like others I try pulling off simillar stunts at NL10 (hitting turns like a sledgehammer IP when you smell weakness is about as +EV as it gets) but I still lack discipline to fold any made hand (no matter how marginal) even vs. a rock since I think everybody is making simillar moves on me as I do. I just cant help myself, when someone is playing TPTK or a completed FD the way it is normally played, I just think to myself "this is just too obvious play" and repop only to burn more of my money, giving action to a nit holding the nuts... So I reamain a breakeven player... So I guess to be a good position player you also have to fold...

Buster, the response from Gateswi is about a hand i posted on this thread, not a response to OP hands.

Still i get your point.

I figure I'd share why I'm still at 5NL... for you guys who think I should play 10NL or even 25NL, here is my 10NL graph:



The EV is bad in itself, but I had a couple of days where I would run into the very tip top of peoples ranges every time I ran a semi-bluff. Either way, the win-rate isn't spectactular(2.5bb/100)... but, oh well.

As a sidenote, if you are currently staking and/or know someone who is... I'd love to try 25NL. I've played a session of it and ran well. I think I can beat the regs there w/o needing to survive 99/1 all-ins.