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5NL - QQ river decision 5NL - QQ river decision

03-09-2010 , 11:56 PM
Villain is tight, with 14/11/1.7 over 52 hands. No reads on how he plays postflop.

Poker Stars $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BTN: $7.08
SB: $8.79
BB: $5.55
Hero (UTG): $7.47
MP: $5.00
CO: $5.53

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is UTG with Q Q
Hero raises to $0.20, MP calls $0.20, 4 folds

Flop: ($0.47) 6 2 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.35, MP calls $0.35

Turn: ($1.17) J (2 players)
Hero bets $0.55, MP calls $0.55

River: ($2.27) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $1.40, Hero folds


Turn bet should've been bigger. On river, the flush hit and possibly the straight draw. I slowed down, thinking to call a half pot bet. He bet more or less 2/3 of the pot, which to me seemed like a value bet. Should I have barreled again on the river? As played, should I call?
5NL - QQ river decision Quote
03-10-2010 , 12:50 AM
I think you should have pot the flop and pot the turn charge for the FD. The river how ever is not something I can really give good advice on. These type of things throw me for a loop as well.
5NL - QQ river decision Quote
03-10-2010 , 02:22 AM
I don't think you have to worry about a straight. Somebody this nitty isn't going to show up with 7T or QT in middle position. But to me this looks exactly like a slowplayed set (he called your raise instead of 3betting; I'm thinking the majority of his range here is medium or small pocket pairs).
5NL - QQ river decision Quote
03-10-2010 , 02:23 AM
b/f river about 1.30.

fwiw c/f is fine, and c/c is horrible.
5NL - QQ river decision Quote
03-10-2010 , 02:30 AM
I think the river c/f is fine. I think he has a flush or a set a lot.

In terms of what he has here, he's going to check behind with the 87 OESD almost always after making middle pair. So he doesn't really have much to bluff at all with the flush getting there and 87 turning into middle pair, which a random 5nl player will almost always just check to showdown. And there's not really anything he'll bet for value that we beat. We have an overpair, but it's mostly a bluff catcher now.

There's probably some value in bet/folding river.. you might get value from 87 and TT, but I'm not sure there enough or that it's +EV overall.
5NL - QQ river decision Quote
03-10-2010 , 04:39 AM
bet .40 on flop, bet .90 on turn. bet/fold river. U can still get some thin value from some hands, and the possibility of getting bluff raised on the river is pretty slim since even a set has to worry bout the flush and straight draw getting there. Altho your UTG open bet bet bet line looks alot like an overpair, this is 5nl and against a guy this tight i dont like check calling at all. As played fold river.
5NL - QQ river decision Quote

      
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