P1(BTN) $8.12 - VP:74 PFR:50 AF:1.7 W:30|31 STL:78|0 3B:29|67 CB:57|17 N:3.66 Hands:74
P2(SB) $3.97 - VP:39 PFR:3 AF:2.4 W:37|80 STL:0|53 3B:0|100 CB:100|50 N:2.44 Hands:74
P3(BB) $5.53 - VP:31 PFR:15 AF: W:0| STL:0|100 3B:33| CB:|100 N:0.48 Hands:13
Me(UTG) $7.43 - VP:16 PFR:12 AF:1.7 W:56|60 STL:44|80 3B:0|100 CB:50| N:0.23 Hands:73
P5(MP) $4.91 - VP:6 PFR:3 AF:Inf. W:50|0 STL:33|100 3B:0| CB:100| N:-2.60 Hands:32
P6(CO) $10.10 - VP:25 PFR:17 AF:0.8 W:31|50 STL:77|100 3B:4|50 CB:29|75 N:1.67 Hands:69


Pre Flop: Me(UTG) with [A,A]
Me(UTG) raises 0.15, P5(MP) folds, P6(CO) folds, P1(BTN) calls 0.15, P2(SB) calls 0.13, P3(BB) folds


Pot: 0.50
Flop: (6,6,J) (3 players)
P2(SB) checks, Me(MP) bets 0.25, P1(BTN) calls 0.25, P2(SB) folds


Pot: 1.00
Turn: T (2 players)
Me(EP) bets 0.60, P1(BTN) calls 0.60

Pot: 2.20
River: Q (2 players)
Me(EP) bets 1.20, P1(BTN) raises 3, Me(EP) folds


Final:
Returns 1.80 to P1(BTN)
P1(BTN) wins 4.37



We should never be calling this river right? We're only beating QJ here. Villain has been pretty aggressive pre and post.

Call. You're ahead of his range and get nice odds.

bump. anyone else call here?

Yeah think it's a call vs this guy. I can hardly read this hh though.

Yeah it really sucks. I wish there was a way to make it clearer. All I did was add the suits and the pot size. Hold 'Em Indicator blows. I wish there was a way to convert them without paying for a program.

utg with those fish behind I would be opening 20c but given your tightness maybe this might be a red flag, but fish don't apply any range assumptions and aren't aware of position, regardless though you want them to pay you off and when one fish calls your raise the fish left to act will call like a domino effect. This should not be your goal unless you are looking for a crap shoot, and you are gonna be oop postflop so you want to be raising big here (even 5x or 6x with any real big fish behind). We are cbetting flop 100% of time but you should have applied some pot control on the turn. on the river villains range will have 6's in them possibly even ak, him calling you with a jack is likely but trying to get 3 streets of value here oop is pretty hard if anything this was a very thin value bet. I doubt he is capable of bluffing this, but the biggest mistake here was betting the turn, if you would have x/c here you could fold to a big riv bet depending on what you know about the player. Or you could have gotten checked behind then you would bet out on riv and get value from his jx hands.

he could have had jt or jq and thought he was raising for value and you only have to be right 22.2% of time, though I won't lie this is a tough spot but I would fold just because I feel as if he had J he would have maybe raised flop and I tend to notice that when fish raise like this on river in similar spots they usually have it.

Your decision would have been WAY simpler if you would have checked turn.

Yeah never x turn.

Some good points, but...

By checking turn don't we give up a lot of value to his Jx hands (which there are more combos of then 6's.) Also it's unlikely he has AK as we are blocking it. It's down to a 6 that didn't raise the turn, 98 and the QJ or QT river raise. I'm going to run the hands that I think he could have by river in equilab. I don't think he necessarily raises J on flop either.

I just ran Equilab and I did a rough guesstimation at his river range. And it showed this:

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 6dJh6sTdQs
Equity Win Tie
MP2 28.13% 28.13% 0.00% { AsAc }
MP3 71.88% 71.88% 0.00% { JJ, 66, A6s, K9s, K6s, QJs, Q6s, J6s, T6s, 98s, 96s, 86s, 76s, 62s+, A6o, K6o, QJo, Q9o, Q6o, J9o, J6o, T9o, T6o, 98o, 96o, 86o, 76o, 65o }


Just wanted to make sure I did the pot odds correctly as well. But the pot is 3.40 when I bet my 1.20. He raises to 3.00 so he covers my 1.20 so he's actually betting 2.80 into a pot of 3.40. The new pot is 6.20 which we add my call of 2.80 to and we come out with 9. 2.80/9 is 31% (pot odd percentage.)

Our equity against his estimated range is 28% which is less then 31% so it's a fold. Did I do this right?

^^^
The pot is 6.40 and you have another 1.80 to call, so you are getting odds of 3.5/1 meaning that you have to be good a little under 25% of the time to call.

I'm calling this river - particularly because you say that villain has been aggressive postflop.

I'm also betting bigger on this river... I still think that Jx and any Qx, possibly some pairs such as Tx, 99 etc. will be calling a bigger bet.

def don't check turn

bigger flop

call otr, but expect to be beat there a decent amount

by checking turn I'm pretty sure hes betting his jx hands (due to his postflop aggression) so you would get the value you're looking for anyways and not worry about getting raised by a 6 (also you're right theres a good chance he doesn't raise jx on flop, I was just assuming as he seems like a weak agro). Also take into account if you if he checks back on the turn you can bet a lot stronger on riv and he will be calling a good majority of the time with a j, therefore you can make up for the some of the value lost on the turn if it does go check check. idk but to me this seems like a pretty clear pot control situation

and the pot odds were roughly 22% on riv

You're kinda just mashing together a bunch of outdated or irrelevant concepts.

Why are you half potting flop and turn with a strong value hand against complete ******s?

74/50 on NL10 ? that hand can be anything even Q5 or KQ or whatever (and yes can be 26o or QQ aswell) never ever fold. just my 2cents

I get what you're saying, I use to pot control a lot in these situations because I figured they'd bet the turn with the hands I was vbetting against anyway. The thing is though is that we also lose value against floated T9hh type hands and maybe even 99 and 88 that would most likely check back the turn (even though he's aggro, he'd still check back some hands that we'd be getting value against.)

Also yeah this is a pretty bad fold by me. I'm realizing now that I need to call more often in these type of spots especially when I'm getting sick odds. Pretty big leak.