kitty is kinda a wacko and i think looks to outplay a lot. I wonder if shoving is the best play here because it makes our hand look fairly bluffy by repping such a narrow range. The only thing is are there enough hands we beat that will consider calling.

Seat 1: BCM11 (1340 in chips)
Seat 2: kitty97 (1660 in chips)
BCM11: posts small blind 10
kitty97: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BCM11 [Tc Ts]
BCM11: raises 40 to 60
kitty97: calls 40
*** FLOP *** [4s 4c 3d]
kitty97: checks
BCM11: bets 80
kitty97: calls 80
*** TURN *** [4s 4c 3d] [6h]
kitty97: checks
BCM11: bets 220
kitty97: calls 220
*** RIVER *** [4s 4c 3d 6h] [6d]
kitty97: checks

I think he calls with lots of high cards if you pop that river.

I don't like it, but I don't know the villain. If villain is capable of playing a 4 this way we're in trouble, and I don't think there are any overpairs left in villain's range. On top of that, villain can have 56/57. I think a check behind is okay. I'd be more inclined to shove if the river was an ace or a king.

Huh??? how can shoving an ace or a king after she checks POSSIBLY be a good line, what are you folding out there that you don't when the 6 hits, or that you are beating, that just doesnt make any sense to me



BCM: I dunno, I personally assume people who are going to flat hero calls here aren't gonna ever call a shove with a hand your beating, or VERY VERY rarely, as 77-99 and stuff are basically out of her range after the turn. I still like a bet though and I tend to bet ~ 1/2(pot) - 440 , but that may still be a leak of mine, but I see her looking you up with Ax enough of the time here for like a 380 or 440 bet, compared to the times she ck/ck/cks a 4 or ran into the 6 there, but I dont think checking behind here is really horrible if she is capable of playing her trips that slowly, I like a bet though, but I really dont think Ax calls a full shove here a ton of the time but I could be off

it depends so much on what level she is thinking on imo. a standard average/bad villain im going with primo and vbetting 440ish bc you get a ton of hero calls just bc they are huge stations. an above average/good but not great villain who understands when and why your range is polarized etc i like the overbet shove.

i think you need a really good read though bc vbetting 440 will get a ton of hero calls in general. im rarely checking behind on the river.

Why do we think villain has so many high card hands? Flatted preflop. Flatted flop. Flatted turn with no draws except for straight draw. If villain really has A/x that much here, yes villain will hero-call it a bunch, and we should shove, but I don't see it.

A2, A3, and A5 are all part of his range, I would think. Total rainbow on the turn, which takes out most big suited cards that might float the flop.

22, 55, and maybe 77 *might* just flat preflop, flop and turn, but 55 and 77 are almost certainly going to raise at some point. And, of course, 22 isn't calling on the end.

Maybe something like a suited King-rag? I dunno, that's stretching it a little, depending on the villain.

Given that they don't necessarily call a push with an ace, I'd tend to agree with primo that a smaller bet is more likely to get paid by the hands you're beating. But then again, I don't play $550s, and the villains I play can show up here with crap like J3 or QT (yes, I've been called on the river numerous times by queen high or worse at the lower stakes, and last night actually got called on the end by nine high for about 2/3 pot).

So I value bet 100% here, and expect to get called a LOT by worse hands, but that doesn't necessarily translate to the typical $550 villain.

I am weak-tight so I check this river, unless I know my opponent isn't capable of a re-raise river bluff. If that's the case, I go for the value bet.

I agree. If he actually has FPS (which he hasn't in my limited experience with him), then I'd rather just bet an amount that could induce a bluff. I definitely am not 100 percent comfortable value bet/calling a shove on this river though, as while I don't think he has a 4 that often, 6x is in his range. It's a wierd spot..

maybe i do shove, meh

fwiw I don't think kitty has a 4 but it really depends on how hes been playing and the flow of the match

I agree Heir, I prefer the bet that could induce some sort of craziness out of her, and I think Ax pays off alot times here, but regardless I just don't see villian folding Ax to a smaller bet if they hung around with it this far, but I can def. see themselves rationalizing and folding to a 1.5x pot shove, they still have a ton of chips left and I just think shoving here is stretching it unless villain REALLY loves to hero call... I mean we are playing our hand face up, + the rare times we are going to make some sick huge bluff early in the match for 1.5x pot, which I think is a pretty small % of the time, so I think it's easy enough for villian to polarize our range here, and also to see that we are pretty heavily weighted towards medium-strong hands here, def. something beating A high a decent amount of the time imho, but I just dont see them ever getting away from their ace here if they called the first 2 bets when your vbetting like 380-440.

Imo don't shove just valuebet ~550

This might be a stupid question, but if we do bet 440 can we call a shove???

I know we have 800 of 1360 chips invested, but we have to be good I guess 20ish% of the time to call profitably???

yes, im vbetting with the intention of calling a shove, I mean obv calling a shove is super-thin, but I think your priced in and still think given the way he played the hand with the flat, ck/call, ck/call... CK I just don't see his check/shoving range on the river being more than like exactly one or two hands, with possibly some bluffs(??) which would make you have to call, but I mean some of this has to deal with BCM's image towards Kitty too, do you know if she expects you to take lines like this, do you often 3 barrel early on and on boards like this, there is obv some meta-work that has to be done here, but without knowing they know X tendency about you, I am vbetting and calling the shove

-Primo

if you value bet big I think I fold to a shove becasue it appears kitty has 0 FE and you really won't be good 20%. If you bet smaller it looks thinner, kitty thinks she has FE and calling is actually better despite having less invested

please define 'big' and 'small' with a quantitative value , kthx =]