This is more an exercise in range deconstruction than anything, because I don't think I'm ever folding here. Villain has been pretty aggressive so far, and there have been a number of pots where we played chicken with raises and reraises.

Also, about 2 hands previous, he slowplayed aces to death with small bets, and I rivered 2 pair on him.

Another thing to note about this opponent is that in a couple spots he made *really bad* raises on the river. For example, on the AA hand, he bet, I raised, and he min-raised. Another hand, I raised preflop with AK, he flat called, check down to the river, which was an ace, I bet and he raised with A8 which was just top pair mid kicker.


Full Tilt Poker $50 + $2.50 Heads Up Sit & Go No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 2 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

BTN/SB: t1165
Hero (BB): t1835

Pre Flop: Hero is BB with 7 4
BTN/SB calls t15, Hero checks

Flop: (t60) Q 3 6 (2 players)
Hero bets t60

I bet here to present a queen scared of the diamonds, any random diamond, and maybe another shot at playing chicken. If he's got a piece, I want to make the max, and want to charge a lone diamond for drawing.

BTN/SB raises to t120

I think he's doing this with air (he got the best of most of the chicken battles, although I obviously don't know what he had the times I folded), mid or better diamonds, all pairs + diamonds, some lone pairs without diamonds, some straight draws (especially those that contain a diamond), two pair, and flushes.

Hero raises to t420

At this point, my range should be fairly narrow. Combo draws including pairs + big diamonds (Kd3x, etc) and straight+flush draws, 2 pair, sometimes sets (infrequently, since I'm going to raise the limp most of the time with even 33), and flushes.

BTN/SB raises to t1135 all in

My best guess here is something like any 2 pair, 6 or a 3 with the Ad or Kd, and made flushes.

That sort of range is a pain to add into pokerstove, so longhand (I suck really bad at this, and I'm trying to do it without a calculator, so please feel free to correct mistakes or gross errors in approximations):

27 ways to make 2 pair, which I'm about 84% against
12 ways to make 3/6 with Ad/Kd, which I'm about 72% against
28 ways to make flushes, which I'm about 5% against

So I win around 25 combos (17 + 8), and lose about 26. Obviously more than enough equity to call.

Hero calls t715

Turn: (t2330) 4

River: (t2330) 7


Any serious flaws in my reasoning at any point here?

Haha, I suck. Dunno how I got 17 out of 84% of 27. It's actually 22.6.

So I win about 30 combos and lose 26. If a call wasn't obvious before...

Taking 63 out of the range reduces 27 2 pair combos to 18, leaving me 15 wins on 2 pairs, for a total of 23 wins vs 26 losses. Still a no-brainer.

*edit*

Actually, I do know how I got 17. I added in a .56 where I should have been adding 5.6.

I suck so bad at doing math in my head. Cwar thinks that with enough practice, you could do this sort of calculation on the fly and get relatively close. Maybe *he* could.

I'm a total nooB, but it seems to me that you are overweighting 2pair on this bd texture. 36, Q6 and Q3 are all folds for most sane players.

Also, every now and then someone will have tried to get tricky with KK, AA and is now getting stubborn.

Also, he is going to have more than big Ace King combos. QJ-Q8, 65,68,

I still think it's a call mainly because I think there's a level of erratic play that you're beating. If you're positive you are against a thinking opponent and your image is strong, and you don't think he's going to maniacally bluff at you, I think you can lay this down. I think you're crushed by a thinking player's range.

Well I'm certainly never folding here

I suck at math aswell so I'm curious how you figure this out.

- For 2 pair you say 9 remaining Q's, 3's and 6's and multiply with 3 for the number of cards flop cards right?
- For AdKd + a 3 or 6 you say 2(ad+kd) x 6 (three 3's and three 6'es) right?
- I can't figure out how you got the possible flushes to 28, what do you do there?

Interresting post and always fun to see a little mathematical aspect helping dertermine his range even though I suck badly at math.

This is something you are practising to do while playing? Sounds really tough but I guess for people who are really good at math it wouldn't be too hard to do with some practise.

I've tried to learn how to calculate fold equity required for shoving draws ect to be profitable but must admit I never use it on the tables, only when going through hands on PT ect. I'm just far from fast enough with the head math unfortunately. Perhaps I need to study the math harder ^^

Well, he did limp on the button, which many players will do with ATC, but this player specifically was very likely to be playing all three of those hands, and might have raised with any of them as well.

For 2 pair, there are 3 Qs out, and 3 6s, so there are 9 possible combinations that make Q6. (3*3) Same for Q3 and 63.

Similar math for the two big diamonds, you got that part fine.

For the flushes, there are 3 out, and 2 in my hand, leaving 8 diamonds. There are 8*7 (or 56) ways that he can have 2 diamonds in his hand, but half of those or duplicates, because choosing one card out of 8 then choosing one card out of the remaining 7 leaves you the possibility of choosing the 8d first, followed by the 9d, but that is the same starting combo as choosing the 9d first, followed by the 8d. So, there are 28. That 28 includes *all* the possible flushes, though, including the really unlikely ones like big suited aces (AK-A9 or so), and other broadway cards. You could probably realistically cut 10 or more combos out of the flushes on that alone.

u got coolered

Wow, I would have just thought "ZOMG I HAVE A FLUSH" and clicked call.

Ah ic, makes sense to me now!

/cheers!

Ya think?



So did I! I didn't actually do any of this range analysis while I was sitting there. I was pretty sure I was never ever ever folding. Especially not against somebody who overvalues hands so much that they're willing to raise on the end with top pair middle kicker.

It did seem worthwhile to try to breakdown the ranges later, and how they narrowed at every action, though, just in case I was wrong, and I somehow should have been able to conclude that yes, my flush was beat, and I should have dumped it.

And the answer appears to be ZOMG I HAVE A FLUSH and click call.