So you have been peacefully grinding up a nice stack and are nearing the scheduled end of your session. In a few more minutes, you will clock out and tally up a nice win for the evening. Life couldn't be much better. And then...

Ignition - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 205.72 BB
Hero (CO): 282.88 BB
BTN: 372.96 BB
SB: 144.38 BB
BB: 180.3 BB
UTG: 106.78 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K A

fold, MP raises to 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 8 BB, fold, SB calls 7.5 BB, fold, MP raises to 29.5 BB, Hero calls 21.5 BB, SB calls 21.5 BB

Flop: (89.5 BB, 3 players) A 8 6
SB checks, MP bets 31.52 BB, Hero calls 31.52 BB, fold

Turn: (152.54 BB, 2 players) 6
MP checks, Hero checks

River: (152.54 BB, 2 players) K
MP bets 144.7 BB and is all-in, Hero?

Pretty sure you have to call in theory but I have noticed a reluctance to bluff when deep at micros

There are only 2 (realistic) combos that beat you, so I don't think there's anyway you can avoid getting stacked by KK. Most players won't have enough bluffs here I don't think, but those who do will make up for it. Plus, villain's most likely hand chops with yours.

bet turn

Looks like KK or AK most if the time.
How many bluffs do we need from him to call?

I’m betting like 30 bb’s ott. Don’t think villain bets the flop that big with KK into 2 players so we really only lose to one combo of AA, so call and expect to chop a lot.

Fold pre, open jam AA...protect your profit.

Kendoo, I think it is close enough that any bluffs at all heavily swing it to a call. But can villain realistically be bluffing here? In real time, I did not give villain credit for bluffing here. But this is Bonition, the land of crazy sports bettors. So I should have more seriously considered bluffs. Also, wild LAGs love to build big stacks and play deep.

Otium, that is an excellent point about us being able to discount KK due to villain's flop bet size. I did not pick up on that at all in real time. Do you think a 30 BB turn bet has a real chance of being called by QQ or KK? That did not occur to me. Maybe I need to more seriously consider the possibility of some AQs and such in villain's range.

Vecissitude, I know you are joking. But it did not even occur to me until today that this might be a fold to the pre-flop 4bet. I see Tariq Haji making these pre-flop hero folds with QQ or AK quite frequently in his RIO Bonition videos. In real time, I felt like the suitedness of my AK made it a clear continue since it was likely to be 3way with the SB rec player. But in reality, I probably do need to fold since I don't even have immediate pot odds to continue against say QQ+ and AK from MP and whatever junk the SB has. If MP has AA or KK, I am obv in bad shape. If MP has AK as well, then we are actually pretty heavy equity dogs against SB even if SB's range is junky. That leaves QQ as the only hand we are happy to play against. I feel like MP's reg sizing on his 2bet and huge sizing on his 4bet are pretty scary.

lolwat at the idea of folding preflop over 200bb deep in position with AKs

The SB is an idiot, do not worry about him, he counts for nothing in this hand other than blowing up the pot. After calling twice he is set mining and nothing else.

At 100bb you got a clear JAM facing a 4-bet, at over 200 bb to me it becomes player dependent. If he has a 3bet % of 6 or less I am giving folding a lot of consideration. Flatting is just about the worst option since if the A does come it kills a lot of action.

If you do flat AK you simply cannot fold once you hit AK, and if you do fold why would you call pre against a range that you think is primarily made up of KK+? Quite frankly once the SB flats pre you simply should not have a calling range, if you do V is primarily going to put you at QQ and AK and can make your life difficult.

You are getting the odds to call if he only ever shows up with AA / KK / AK.

Looks like a call, but not sure why people are putting KK heavily in his range. Are people betting KK in a 4-bet pot on an A high board multi-way very often?

But, it's a fold if his range only includes AKs and not AKo (there's only 1 possible combo of AKs).

It looks like a fold to me.

I just noticed it's 50nl zone on ignition. This deep, someone can def have 6x also in his range here on this site. Probably a close fold.

When ran solver, this time prefers smaller bet (probably bigger to weed the field).

Both ranges include AKo. We are ignoring small blind for the moment.

Both players are checking their flopped AA sets.

Our EVs are close to equal here. If i lock that villain large bets range, than we a folding everything without an A, calling AA, and raising AKo and AKs (the other are much lighter mix). Also, it likes a jam on the flop for the Ak, v a smaller bet.

On turn, villain is checking 82% of hands, KK and QQ included.

On turn, we have high percentage of betting AKs and AKo, but not for a jam this time (if we didn't jam on the flop). These are with deep stacks, so you could modulate jams to 100BB effective.

With villain jam on river, we are meant to call with AK, and fold AQs, 50%+ call with A5s. If we flatted KK, we should be obviously calling with AA and KK.

So I decided to make a hero fold that I think was largely due to tilt. I had been out of tempo check-raised on the turn in a 150 BB pot a little before this and lost set over set. So I think I interpreted villain's turn check as a c/r attempt with AA. In reality, villain had AKo and would likely be quite surprised to learn that he bluffed me off of a chop lol. I am glad I lost. If villain had AA or KK, it would have probably encouraged me to make other bad hero folds in the future.

Futureinsights, thank you for the solve. Shoving the flop would not have occurred to me at all. It sounds like my turn check was quite questionable too as others have already mentioned. If the solver is calling AQs and A5s, I obv messed up pretty bad.

I feel like this was a pretty clear call. As Otium pointed out, the flop sizing doesn't look like KK. Also, I feel like there are enough sickos in these games who could have wild bluffs that folding here makes even less sense. I was half expecting to see something ridiculous in the replayer the next day.

Thanks for the help everyone!