50NL Value bet rvr? - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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50NL Value bet rvr?

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03-28-2010 , 01:27 PM

nyc18

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 108

Not a lot of hands on villain, but he was playing 24/3 over about 30 hands. Can I bet rvr for value here, or is checking behind better?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com

SB ($95.30)
BB ($37.15)
UTG ($24.80)
UTG+1 ($54.25)
MP1 ($54.05)
Hero (MP2) ($50)
MP3 ($59.90)
CO ($45.65)
Button ($23.65)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 5

, 5

3 folds, Hero bets $1.75, 4 folds, BB calls $1.25

Flop: ($3.75) 4

, 5

, J

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3, BB calls $3

Turn: ($9.75) 2

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $7, BB calls $7

River: ($23.75) 3

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero?

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03-28-2010 , 01:45 PM

venice10

Referee

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 26,036

Value bet. There's nothing to chase on this flop, so if he called with an ace all the way down, he'd call lots of other things you beat.

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03-28-2010 , 01:47 PM

OoLethaLoO

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 6,851

I can't see him ever having an A here...I guess its possible he can have 76 or like 86 if he likes chasing gutshots..mayyybe he can have an A if he likes floating AND chasing gutshots...more likely he has Jx tho...he has about 1 PSB left so if you bet you are committed. If you ship he can prob find a fold with Jx, if you bet 1/2 pot he prob never folds Jx, but if he ships you will have to call and its gonna suck.

Idk if you hate variance check behind I guess, if you want maximum value bet 1/2 pot and hope he just calls.

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03-28-2010 , 03:22 PM

poker_joker

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 531

I don't mind checking behind here unless he is really bad and you think he can call the river with Jx.

He's got AJ here enough and looks pretty passive (based on 3% PFR), so I like a check behind as I really don't see value in 1/2 PSB unless you have good enough read to know he is bad enough to think his Jx is good.

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03-28-2010 , 09:21 PM

Titanrulez

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 21,141

Quote:

Originally Posted by venice10

Value bet. There's nothing to chase on this flop, so if he called with an ace all the way down, he'd call lots of other things you beat.

This.

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03-28-2010 , 09:30 PM

SteelerPower

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 636

He obviously has something calling every street.

He could have had 56, 67, AJ, A5, A2, A3, A4, A6

If you bet and he repops or shoves, your going to be sick. Someone this passive will almost always check the river when he hits his chased hand.

I just check and either scoop the pot or watch him turn over the nuts and saved myself money.

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03-28-2010 , 09:35 PM

jessyj

banned

Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 1,860

check. we'll have him beat a bunch but he's not going to call with worse > 50% imo since our perceived range is a ton of Ax hands and we value cut ourselves when we're behind.

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03-28-2010 , 10:40 PM

Uppercut

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 4,110

Check behind. We cannot stand a c/r here.

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03-28-2010 , 11:31 PM

bapeboy

enthusiast

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 71

i would definitely check here. theres no way he's gonna call anything down for value unless he has a hand.

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03-28-2010 , 11:33 PM

#10

Tony Skaloni

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 2,492

i check

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03-29-2010 , 02:42 AM

#11

Abelian

adept

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,069

His hand feels a lot like a medium Jx (JT-KJ) here. And I think he calls most 1/2p river bets here with those hands.

Adding in other hand combinations which make sense (AJ, A6 and 56), put you at ~53%, which would make this a thin (but good) bet.

A case could be made for throwing A6 and 65 out, as he probably leads out with those. In which case you're 75% vs his range and a bet is still good.

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03-29-2010 , 02:34 PM

#12

nyc18

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 108

For those interested in results.

Hero bet half pot. Villain raises all-in. Hero sighs and calls. Villain shows 67.

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03-29-2010 , 03:14 PM

#13

venice10

Referee

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 26,036

Quote:

Originally Posted by nyc18

For those interested in results.

Hero bet half pot. Villain raises all-in. Hero sighs and calls. Villain shows 67.

Calling the raise on the river is really bad. You're never good.

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03-29-2010 , 03:23 PM

#14

kogniac

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 198

i check. whenever i bet in this spot, i see AJ or 66

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03-29-2010 , 04:06 PM

#15

holsamoht

adept

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 778

Quote:

Originally Posted by venice10

Calling the raise on the river is really bad. You're never good.

Quote

03-29-2010 , 05:21 PM

#16

Abelian

adept

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,069

Quote:

Originally Posted by venice10

Calling the raise on the river is really bad. You're never good.

Yeah, passive villain never raises here w/o a 6.

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03-29-2010 , 06:16 PM

#17

kogniac

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 198

Quote:

Originally Posted by nyc18

For those interested in results.

Hero bet half pot. Villain raises all-in. Hero sighs and calls. Villain shows 67.

oh, never call a re-raise here, especially from a guy with those stats!!

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03-29-2010 , 06:45 PM

#18

SammyG-SD

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 12,600

I want to value bet sooo bad, but stack size of villain makes it awkward. I am tempted between checking behind and shoving.

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03-29-2010 , 06:49 PM

#19

springsteen87

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 8,998

Quote:

Originally Posted by SammyG-SD

I want to value bet sooo bad, but stack size of villain makes it awkward. I am tempted between checking behind and shoving.

Yeah, i don't like betting anything less than a shove if we do so.

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03-29-2010 , 06:49 PM

#20

AlexB182

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 8,338

pretty mandatory to bet the river but you have to think about what hands you want to get called by and what you're doing when facing a shove. Something like 8.25 is good...

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03-29-2010 , 06:55 PM

#21

SammyG-SD

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 12,600

Quote:

Originally Posted by AlexB182

pretty mandatory to bet the river but you have to think about what hands you want to get called by and what you're doing when facing a shove. Something like 8.25 is good...

that is what I was thinking at first ($8.50 actually) to b/f with, but given the stack left after a shove, do you think we can still b/f or do we b/c? And if we have to b/c, would it be better to shove?

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03-29-2010 , 07:00 PM

#22

I vi ii V7

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 9,998

Quote:

Originally Posted by SammyG-SD

Given that you're ahead basically never when you get c/r on the river, I don't see how remaining stack sizes affect anything.

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03-29-2010 , 07:03 PM

#23

springsteen87

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 8,998

if his calling range is inelastic WR to bet size, then it matters a lot. Villain is probably a big fish, and if we b/c $8.5, when he would have called AI with KJ, then we're going to be losing value

If we bet $8.5, i think it would be to b/f...and i dunno how i feel about that

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03-29-2010 , 07:04 PM

#24

SammyG-SD

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 12,600

Quote:

Originally Posted by I vi ii V7

Given that you're ahead basically never when you get c/r on the river, I don't see how remaining stack sizes affect anything.

that is why its odd. So if I bet $8.25 can I fold to a $15 raise when its $15 to win $32? And if he will call $8 will he call $23?

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03-29-2010 , 07:06 PM

#25

I vi ii V7

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 9,998

Quote:

Originally Posted by SammyG-SD

that is why its odd. So if I bet $8.25 can I fold to a $15 raise when its $15 to win $32? And if he will call $8 will he call $23?

If you're good 0% of the time, what does it matter?

I think if he has Jx in his range, the only way he's calling is if we bet pretty small. If we get raised (or if we bet big and he calls) he will have AJ at a minimum.

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