OK butchered this had a bit, I prob shoudl of raised this up pf, but I don't mind seeing cheap multyway flop ip with suited a. I think as played on the flop I should have reraise to more like 6.50?
THis guy was a 23/6 over ~200hands. I can't really get away from this rereaise I dont' think becuase there are heaps of Ax hands with the nfd, 88 is pretty unlikley, he coudl limp 99 utg.
But question is shoudl I be getting away from this on the turn after he shows agression again, or should I just shove it in and hope that im up against Axs or 89?


Party Poker $50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 41872
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: $30.00
UTG: $49.25
UTG+1: $14.35
MP1: $53.39
MP2: $18.43
Hero (CO): $50.00
BTN: $98.64
SB: $45.56

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with A 8
UTG calls $0.50, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, 1 fold, SB calls $0.25, BB checks

Flop: ($2.50) 9 8 A (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets $1.78, MP2 folds, Hero raises to $5.36, SB folds, BB folds, UTG raises to $12.34, Hero calls $6.98

Turn: ($27.18) 2 (2 players)
UTG bets $16.41, [color=red]

i think you should get away from this on the flop. [when he 3 bets you]

1.) he is surely going to lead on the turn. / commit for the hand.
2.) even with all Ahxh in his range, you still are around 33% eq. [since even the hands youre ahead of will beat you a very good portion of the time]

I'm at work so I don't have Stove here.

Could someone stove a range of:
88-99,AA,JhTh,KhQh,98s,98o,A9o,A9s,A8o,A8s,A2s+ (just the 's).

Something makes me want to ship this on the flop but I'm not sure about the equity in this situation.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

32,670 games 0.005 secs 6,534,000 games/sec

Board: Ac 9h 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.650% 47.35% 07.30% 15468 2386.00 { AA, 99-88, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, A9s-A8s, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KhQh, JhTh, 98s, A9o-A8o, 98o }
Hand 1: 45.350% 38.05% 07.30% 12430 2386.00 { As8s }

Normally you'd think he would CR semibluff the NFD (all those AhXh hands) but with top pair he might think he's value betting, if that makes any sense. I spew hard with 2p so...

i most likely jam the flop as he could easily be limping 89 utg trying to seee a cheap flop also i think Ax of hearts could easily be in his range and he has decided he is never folding. dont see 99 here so i would just ship the flop

Meh, I can find a fold. A guy this passive is not shipping a draw that you have good equity against. And if experience has taught me anything, it's that in a limped pot, two pair that is not top two pair is not worth playing for stacks with. But I could just be running below expectation.

^ this is true. It's probably a matter of how often we can actually include the low Axs hands in his range. If we have to take them out then our equity drops and we should fold.

Assuming we have no fold equity here, we need 39% equity to make a shove breakeven:

+$56.61 when we win
-$36.41 when we lose

0 = 56.61x - (1-x)(36.41)
x = 0.39

So it's actually close enough that it's probably not going matter what you do in the long run. Personally I would usually shove readless due to the off chance that there is some fold equity once in a blue moon.

But again, if we have to tighten up this range too much, it's a fold.

I think including 98o and perhaps 98s is a stretch for an utg limper at 23. Even A9o and A8o are stretches.

EV without 98o is 38.9%.

What is his aggression factor? If he's passive, this is an easy fold.

I don't think I see Ax or 89 here often after he 3-bets. Also, I don't see a 23/6'er 3-bet semi-bluffing a draw OOP. This is a tough fold, but I make it.

his agression is 1 - and actually looking close at his stats its been rounded up from 0.6
yeh the more I look and think about this it should be a fold, as much as it sucks. I was ready to ship it in, but stopped myself and called butchering the hand a little more.
Say I am to flat his raise and see what he does on the turn, turn comes a blank, 2Clubs. What are my options.
Say he leads again for half pot, do you think I should get away from this here, or have a put to much of my stack in now.
Say he checks the turn, can I now narrow his hand down to an A ****ekicker with the nfd? or is it just as likley that he has checked the turn with a set and wants to craise me all in. If he checks would it be best to get another free card and possibly get to showdown, or try and get the rest of the money in hoping to get called by Ax with nfd?

his range is pretty easy, a set or Ah Xh which i doubt it. or a combo draw like Th Jh