So you turn the nuts and don't bet? Do you hate value? Pretty sure QQ/JJ are betting the flop. b/c the turn....

facepalm.jpg

preflop is a 3bet or fold situation normally but with the short stack it's a clear fold. A nit isoing a short stack means he has a hand he doesn't mind getting it in with.

you bet QQ or JJ on that flop in the nit's position? because i don't. i want to give my opponent a second chance to bet his weaker holdings. i am clearly going to c/f the flop because i think JJ-AA can all either bet the flop or check the flop. this is why i don't think the rest of the hand is nearly as straight forward as b/c the turn. the strength of checking QQ and JJ comes from it's disguise.

it's much like when you call a 3bet with AA oop and then c/s the flop, i get looked up so much lighter.

Wouldn't that be a reason for calling > folding > 3betting?

Hard pressed to find a street of play I agree with on this Hand.

reasons? explanations? or just hate?

for ****'s sake people, one liners are absolutely useless. (not targeting you specifically of course) this is bull****, i give a page of reason and all i get for the most part; pre is terrible, don't like turn, i don't like the hand. either say something with substance or say nothing at all.

Hate?

Why do you say that?

I do not know who you are - let alone have any reason to hate you.

Ill bite,

Pre: Yes you can 3bet any hand profitably against him, however why would you turn a hand with value into a bluff. Yes you will be OOP in the hand and it will be hard to play, but i think theres a greater profit in calling then 3betting. This does not mean just setmining it could also mean floating OOP with middle pairs and possibly donking turns or check raising flops. fwiw im ok 3betting if your uncomfortable playing 88 oop like this.

After you get called i put villain on a range of mostly AQ+/99-QQ with the odd suited connector thrown in between.

Flop: I think this flop smacks his range too much for you to be able to profitably cbet. There are some draws on the board but you have middle pair which hardly needs proctection. After he checks i assume he doesn't have the draws anymore or most top pair type hands since he would either semi bluff with them or try to protect them. This puts his range into his monsters that he (wrongly) chose to slowplay, his hands with showdown value and his hands that hes simply giving up on because he thinks the board is too wet.

Turn: I like a bet here because if villain had something he would be willing to bluff he would have bet it on the flop, so he's unlikely to bluff this turn with air. If he has something with some showdown value like aj/tt he might call a bet but will probably not bet himself. If you get raised here i think there's a chanche of qq/jj but im not folding this.

As played: I like a raise because i think he might still stack off with overpairs and if he still has them in his range aq or akdd.

River: would have shoved had i been called on the turn simply because i think any hand that will call a 20ish$ bet will call a shove.

As played i think you have to call but i think villain will show up here with qq/jj alot considering he shoves the river and most likely would check his showdownable hands behind. I also dont think he would shove river with most of his bluff altough he could have aq here.

thank you joop. that makes a lot of sense and i very much respect your opinion. the only question i have about your logic is why is it wrong to slow play monsters, by him checking his qq/jj doesnt it allow me to bluff the turn where otherwise this would have been a c/f? wouldnt it also encourage me to felt AA or it's ilk?

Because this board can get ugly really fast. Im not saying villain will never slowplay here but what will he do if he has jj and the turn is T

hate is meant idiomatically. basically as a substitute to trolling. you offered no reason or anything. like i said, i did not mean to offend you and i am sorry if i have, but i truly believe that one liners like your original response add nothing to the discussion or facilitate learning at all. i have seen some of your other response in other strategy threads and i have always found them enlightening and helpful, so i do not think this is the norm for you. there were simply a lot of responses crafted in the same manner.

edit: joop that makes sense.

Why would you check QQ/JJ? Bet for value. If the villain thinks you checked AK you are only 12% to hit on the turn. Plus, there are draws out there and we not sure how wide you're 3betting.

There are spots to slow play if you're the villain, but this isn't one of them. Regardless, YOU should be betting the turn.

The micros are about value betting, and slow playing is very rarely correct.

Your tone suggests you were not using hate as an 'idiom'.

I have never been accused of trolling before.

Having seen both of your responses I will refrain from adding the thoughts I was going to.

For future reference - I often put some of my first responses like that to see if people are still actively engaged in the thread. Because more often than not - respondents as well as OP are not open to discussion but either want an argument or a pat on the back.


Good Luck at the tables.

*grunch*

I would say villain's ATS is important here, but he's not stealing. He's iso'ing a short limper, which, to me, says that his range is pretty strong. Your perceived 3bet range here (with the assumed donk left to act) should really be strong...especially sine the villain is so tight. (wondering if it's k.i.n.g.d.o.n.a.t.....) Your perceived range should be like..JJ/QQ/AA+ and AK (I don't think AA checks this board). When he flats, and then checks behind on the flop, his range is basically KK+/AK. If you haven't posted a 4bet stat on him, it's crucial here (since if he 4bets KK+/AK, his range for calling just crushes you).

Flop check is standard, but I bet the turn for 9, expecting calls from KK+. If he raises, I think it can go either way. I don't think a good villain raises KK+ on the turn if you bet into them, but so many 50NL regs are bad.

Against an 11/8, why not just fold PF? Unless you have a read he's stealing or love iso-ing smallstacks.

Seriously- setmining OOP sucks, you're not going to float OOP profitably unless the 11/8 sucks, and 3-betting is basically a bluff here. This hand is interesting because hero hit 2-outer on turn but obv. this is rare...

fold to 3bet % is high. the point is to have a bluff with teeth.

i dont get why ppl are getting on the 3 bet pre its super standard, i talk to joopan about this he doesnt like the 3 bet cause hes good post and play 88 profitably oop not only for set mine value but also for mid pair value, most people are not as good as joopan pre so turning 88 into a bluff here is perfectly fine and imo standard.

villian has insane high fold to 3 bet so like he is folding everything except TT+ and AQ+ thats a **** load of broadways and pp's

sure it sucks dick when ur called but if ur options are 3 bet or fold then. this is also a rly good way to get some hands to 3 bet oop.

also obv when villian checks back like i said he does this with showdown type hands so v bet turn and shove river.


me(1:47:27 PM): pre flop?
me (1:47:29 PM): i like it
joopan(1:47:33 PM): uh
joopan(1:47:37 PM): depends
joopan (1:47:39 PM): on fold to 3bet
joopan(1:47:42 PM): this guy folds a ton
me(1:47:43 PM): he doesnt wanna set mine
joopan(1:47:43 PM): so i rather flat
me(1:47:47 PM): oop
joopan(1:47:47 PM): its not setmining
me(1:47:54 PM): would u 3 bet 44?
joopan(1:47:58 PM): yes
me (1:48:01 PM): 55?
joopan(1:48:03 PM): yes
me(1:48:05 PM): 66?
joopan(1:48:05 PM): 66 too
joopan(1:48:07 PM): but 77 no
joopan(1:48:40 PM): i dont like
joopan(1:48:42 PM): turning hands with value
joopan(1:48:43 PM): into bluffs

we all decide what hands we think has value post flop joopan thinks he can 77 profitably post flop vang believe he can do it with 99. I mean i think its fine to even 3 bet 99 here if u think he cant play it for mid pair value and will c/f alot of flops.


another sick thing about 3 betting pp is once ppl think ur crazy they will ship AQ AK QQ KK AA well the amount of combos of AK and AQ are greater then AA KK QQ. So thwere are 32 combos of AK and AQ and only 18 combos of QQ+ that means 2/3 times ppl 4 bet u for value it will be with hands ur flipping, if they sometimes do it with hands that will 4 bet fold you can 5 bet shove small pp's. But i dunno i dont think its very good to do that im just saying its an option.

Yeah there's something to be said for 3betting if you don't think you can play post flop. However, if the villain had a lower fold 3bet % I'd rather see the hero call or fold.

fwiw, I'd flat pre because I don't mind playing post flop against weak tight players. I we 3bet and the shortie shoves and CO folds I think I'd be calling even though I'm not thrilled about it.

OP. Thank you for your PM.

The HH's highlights a number of interesting and contentious Full- ring issues.

I would like to add my thoughts on a couple of parts of the hand.

There are obviously some habitual assumptions that are being acknowledged and used without particularly obvious reference to them.
So for my own clarity of thought on a couple of the issues. I would prefer to actually dig into the equity and ranges before I argue for a particular action.

PF - 3-betting 88 - I think is the starting point.

The starting point for any HH's - I believe has to be villian classification.

Villian 11/8 Fold to 3Bet 81% (5k+) hand sample.

We have a tight aggressive regular - Hero describes as 'nitty'.

As Rapid Evolution pointed out - ATS statistic is a very important statistic because it will indicate how positionally aware villian is.

e.g. 11| 8 with an ATS of 35 is a very different player to a 11|8 with an ATS of 18-20.

We also know that it is Reg vs Reg.
With the 3bet dynamic of 3.5% 3 bet for Hero and 81% Fold to 3-bet% for villian.

With a 5K hand sample we should also know some other things about villian.

(a) Whether he is a winning player or not - a $ won statistic of breakeven or better will suggest Villian is a winning player.
(b) What villians likely 4-bet range is.
(c) What villians stack off range is post-flop.

when i say nitty, i simply mean that i consider anyone with stats less than 12/10 as nitty. additionally, i did not include ATS even after many people asked after it due to it not being something i utilized to come to my conclusions. fwiw, it is 19. villain was a slight winner but i believe this is easily the most worthless stat fwiw because of variance, i can breakeven over 40k hands without problem.

the 4 bet question is where i believe things become truly interesting. i do have a 4bet % number but also very very relevant is to consider our position. if villain has a premium pair (JJ+) and is in EP rather than in LP i believe a 4bet will be entirely standard. however, due to villain being in LP i think that they will most certainly flat KK+ and are actually very likely to be flatting JJ+. furthermore, due to isoing of shorty i do suppose that villain's range is tighter than it otherwise would be (which is something i missed tbh).

like i said in OP, villain is not a particularly competent reg and is fairly unimaginative and i believe that he stacks with standard holdings, overpairs and sets. i included my own stats in my OP but i will also say that this villain and i have little history due to his nittiness and his lack of show down bluffs from what i have seen.

So if we assume that villian has a 20% ATS.

Then his range will be something like this.

66+,A5s+,K9s+,Q9s+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+

88 vs 66+,A5s+,K9s+,Q9s+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+

Our equity vs His equity = 53/47.

So we can 3-bet for value but it is pretty thin standing alone.

Villian has a fold to 3-bet% of 81%

Hand combinations = 16*10 +13*6 + 6*4 = 256 combinations

Remove 81%

Which leaves 48 combinations.


TT+,AQs+,AKo

Given what we know from OP's post above, I'd say 3betting 88 is def. a bluff against this guy.

to evaluate that calculation isn't it best to say we raise $6.75 into a $3.25 pot. if he folds 81% of the time and calls the other 19% of the time and then we ASSUME that we lose 100% of the time after he flats or 4bets then:

for him folding: $3.25*.81 = $2.63
for him calling: $6.75*.19 = -$1.28

so this means that if we 3bet every single time we make money. also, due to that range (which might be tighter due to iso) i think it is too tight in equity to flat and like the 3bet. of course we don't always lose when he flats so that is even worse than the hand is in truth. this is a much more mathematical way to evaluate a hand. i like

I add back in 6 extra combinations of hands to account for the fact that he is in position.

Lets assume that he flatcalls our 3-bet with AA,KK 25% of the time and only 4-bets AA,KK.

We remove 2 combinations of AA, and 1 combinations of KK.

So there are 256 Combinations

200 which fold.

9 4-bet.

45 flatcall our 3bet.

His flatcalling range will look something like this - AcAd,AdAh,AdAs,AhAs,KcKd,KcKh,KcKs,KdKh,KdKs,QQ-TT,AQs+,AKo
Our equity vs His Flatcalling = 33 | 66