Villain seems tight passive at 13/3 over small sample 35 hands.

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

CO: $55.30
Hero (BTN): $51.20
SB: $117.10
BB: $64.70
UTG: $51.40

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN with Q 8
2 folds, Hero raises to $1.75, 1 fold, BB calls $1.25

Flop: ($3.75) 4 8 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.60, BB calls $2.60

Turn: ($8.95) Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero requests TIME, Hero bets $6.80, BB requests TIME, BB raises to $25, Hero?

Are we folding here or getting it in?

I wouldn't be totally surprised if he had AA/KK here. His c/r seems pretty big on the turn if he has a set since it would be very easy to get it in on the river making a smaller raise; however I'm not sure I can give him credit for thinking about this.

There are 8 combos he could have of sets. There are 12 combos of AA+KK. I would imagine 67 isnt even in his range. But if it is, then so is 45 so w/e.

I ship it in...I think.

The AA/KK combos need to be severely discounted even with the tight/passive read. I wouldn't say more than 3 combos. However, that read is based on only 35 hands and there's no reason we shouldn't include AQ and KQ in the range (16 more combos). Given the C/R those need discounting too and it may be kinda close here but I get it in here too.

Against QQ+,88,55-44, we've got 52% equity. I don't think folding/shoving is ever a significant mistake in this situation. I'd also imagine 88/44/55 > QQ+.

Agree on range; whilst I think AA/KK are possible pf I by no means think they are likely. However, 88,55,44 take this line preflop 100% of the time without exception.

Also he can pretty much never have a worse twopair imo.

Furthermore, with only 35 hands but a pretty big gap between VPIP and PFR; I don't think I can take 67s out of his range. I know many tight players who just can't bring themselves to fold a pretty suited connector.

This is a sick spot. But, such a small sample size. Why can't QA be in his range? Players flat QA in the BB all the time here on the flop.

His sample size is way too small. I dunno - I get it in here.

67s (4) and 45s make up like (2) 6 hands of his range. That needs to be accounted for.

Nobody at microstakes treats TPTK like the nuts. A huge majority of players are either calling or leading here with AQ, most likely c/c'ing I think. We don't know about villains postflop play but given he's a nit PF I think it makes it even less likely he is raising a TP hand here, I really don't think we should consider it.

This is a really gay spot against a 13 VPIP guy, if he was a regular loose fish you gotta get it in but here you should probably fold even though it is kinda gross.

I dunno about AQ/KQ, I guess if he could have those it's a call. TBH I never even considered he might have those.

I think it's a pretty rare opponent who would c/r AQ or KQ here, and float them on the flop oop.

I have tried giving him a range of QQ+, 88,55,44,67s,54s; where I have discounted half the combos of AA and KK and 2 of the 3 QQ combos and I have 39.7% equity. Anyone like this range?

Also taking it from the point of view that he is very much an unknown; if I ever took his line here my range would be pretty much exclusively the three flopped sets (albeit i would c/r smaller).

This was pretty much my exact philosophy and i did indeed fold.

1. He has 30 hands on him. I've been a 9/7 guy after 50 hands with nonsense hands / spots, only to become 18/15 by 100 hands after winning a couple of pots and taking control of a couple of players at the table.

2. IN button / sb / bb, in microstakes, I mean, good god, there are plenty of players who will be happy as a pig in **** to put their money in when that Q hits on the turn with AQ. Not to mention you have those two timing tells there, I mean, you combine them, and he can very well be thinking about what the hell to do with his AQ. I think you can put AQ a little in his range here. He could also be playing back at you. Not fully, but to say you can't put in 6 combos of AQ in his range greatly overestimates the skill level of some NL50ers.

i usually talk myself into calling these, and then i get owned by the set/straight, i think it's a fold more often than not..

1. Yeah I know the stats aren't perfectly accurate right now but it is still enough to make me think he is more towards the tight and passive side. This doesn't really matter much because even if he was an unknown that would be the standard I am assuming.

2. I guess we disagree on how the majority of 50nl players play TP here and as there isn't an easy way to prove either way we can both stick with our opinions. You can put a few AQ-KQ combo's in his range but in relation to other hands I think 6 is too many.