50NL - Solid fold or too nitty? - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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50NL - Solid fold or too nitty?

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09-29-2008 , 10:33 AM

weeee7

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 423

Villan is 20/14, I have ~100 hands on him. He wasn't very active so far at the table, only a couple of pf raises, cbets, etc. I can't see him play anything like this except for a set on this dry board. Is this a good fold? (I think he's nowhere near capable of figuring out that I have an overpair and trying to get me off of it.)

$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero ($50.00)
UTG+1 ($50.80)
CO ($57.50)
BTN ($50.00)
SB ($53.35)
BB ($52.00)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 6 players) Hero is UTG K

Hero raises to $2, 2 folds, BTN calls $2, SB calls $1.75, 1 fold

Flop: 2

($6.50, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4, BTN folds, SB calls $4

Turn: 5

($14.50, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $8, SB raises to $22, Hero folds

Final Pot: $44.50

SB wins $43 ( won +$15 )
Hero lost -$14.00
BTN lost -$2.00

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09-29-2008 , 10:56 AM

sinopsychoV

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 626

With your villain description, his stats, and his line, I think it could be a set or an overpair.

So his range could be something like 22, 33, 88, 99, TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA

I would be tempted to push as there is more hands that we beat than hands that beat us (six AA + two 22 +two 33 + two 88, against six 99, TT, JJ, QQ). He might as well be doing a very weird bluff on this dry board.

But I am a noob and actually would be interested to see what other people think about it

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09-29-2008 , 10:57 AM

DerPapst

journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 375

I would go broke 100% of the time,
very interested in the comments

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09-29-2008 , 11:12 AM

vhuntd

adept

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 1,099

Good fold.
Guys like this don't bluff c/r the turn and they almost never play 99-JJ like this or any other made hand that you beat.

Checking the turn is a pretty good option since you prolly can't get 3 streets of value out of a 20/14 and he's going to dump a decent portion of his peeling range to a double barrel.

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09-29-2008 , 11:20 AM

sinopsychoV

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 626

Quote:

Originally Posted by vhuntd

they almost never play 99-JJ like this or any other made hand that you beat. .

What would make you think they could have 99-JJ then? if they 3 bet pre flop? if they raise flop?

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09-29-2008 , 12:11 PM

hochiminh

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 1,563

Quote:

Originally Posted by vhuntd

Good fold, I agree. I don't agree that it is a good option to check. We're missing value from 99-JJ.

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09-29-2008 , 12:29 PM

xraise

enthusiast

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 54

kind of a tough spot - functionally our hand = A8 / 99+ and given your read i think we have to fold reluctantly

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09-29-2008 , 12:43 PM

vhuntd

adept

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 1,099

Quote:

Originally Posted by sinopsychoV

What would make you think they could have 99-JJ then? if they 3 bet pre flop? if they raise flop?

JJ (and sometimes TT) is more likely to 3 b pf or c/r the flop than take this line.
99-TT is more likely to either c/c both flop and turn or c/r flop.

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09-29-2008 , 12:48 PM

klink10k

banned

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 11,721

i think its netural ev between shoving and folding, he does this with hands like JJ/TT/99/QQ a decent amount of the time, but a lot of the time you are drawing to a 2 outer.

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09-29-2008 , 01:18 PM

#10

mivara

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 1,436

I guess this looks like a good fold although I usually have a hard time making it I'm afraid.

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09-29-2008 , 01:19 PM

#11

AggsAA

newbie

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 29

I think its a good fold. I agree he'll check call 99-QQ and also a random 8. Based on stats it prob isn't a semi-bluff with something like 45. So he has to have a set or maybe 2 pair (but unlikely based on board&his stats). Whether checkin turn or betting it's very close but i would bet trying to get value for hand but would have to fold to the check-raise then its just too strong. One thing would be how often u barrell again on the turn with nothing here and whether he could see u just 3 barrelling or have a made hand?

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09-29-2008 , 04:50 PM

#12

craiggerz

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 5,487

The only reason I don't like the fold is because of your bet sizing... I use that bet sizing to induce pushes from weak hands.

Anyways bet more on the turn, like $12... and fold is good.

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09-29-2008 , 05:23 PM

#13

weeee7

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 423

Quote:

Originally Posted by craiggerz

The only reason I don't like the fold is because of your bet sizing... I use that bet sizing to induce pushes from weak hands.

Anyways bet more on the turn, like $12... and fold is good.

You're probably right, my bet size may be read as weakness. My thought process was that it doesn't make much of a difference if I bet less, because the board is so dry, and maybe he'll call a smaller bet with 99-TT.

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09-29-2008 , 05:42 PM

#14

orange

Guest

Posts: n/a

its a pretty close fold, i don't mind it. meh. i think you'll see better hands a very large % of the time if you do get it in.

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09-29-2008 , 05:52 PM

#15

taz17

centurion

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 105

The standard line for a small pp that hits a set is exactly what you see here from villain. Overcall from blinds with low pp. Check call the cbet on a dry board, and then check raise turn hoping to get it in against an overpair. Be happy villain is taking a standard line you've seen before and that the board is dry enough to allow you to happily fold. Standard fold.

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09-29-2008 , 05:56 PM

#16

Batman10

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 187

i'd say your behind a lot - this line is super strong from villian. Turn bet is a bit small

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09-29-2008 , 06:05 PM

#17

rothbull2000

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 225

Fold or shove but personaly i would shove, i think

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09-29-2008 , 06:19 PM

#18

JsTs

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 5,250

Quote:

Originally Posted by craiggerz

The only reason I don't like the fold is because of your bet sizing... I use that bet sizing to induce pushes from weak hands.

Anyways bet more on the turn, like $12... and fold is good.

+1.

Also I would never check turn IP.

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