Villain is 19/16


Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG+2: $53.85
MP1: $52.55
MP2: $51.85
CO: $50.00
BTN: $48.00
SB: $62.30
Hero (BB): $109.20
UTG: $50.00
UTG+1: $51.10

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with Q T
5 folds, CO raises to $2, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.25) 7 K 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $3.50, Hero calls $3.50

Turn: ($11.25) J (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $9, Hero raises to $103.70 all in,




This ever a good bluff? The board does look drawy though. And perhaps I should raise and not shove.

Perhaps I need more equity to make these types of plays.

thanks for any help

i like it

Why?

1. when someone bets so big on the turn they usually really like there hand.
2. when some hugely check overshoves it's rarely a monster and looks really bluff. Still though you've got good equity against he range when he does call.

True I guess.


So you would not do this?

raise/folding this great draw sucks.

calling is bad.

Shoving will get called only by sets.

Punch a baby?

is it really that big of an overshove though? I mean, just kinda looks that way since 8 has 200plus bb. Anyhow I like it, and if you can pull it with a set at some point too if this gets showed down I like it even better.

because i think he folds all his one pair hands and u have great equity when called and i think u have FE.

According to my quick and dodgy maths you need 38% equity if you shove and get called. You're 30% against a range of sets, A's, KJ's, and AKo. The only hand he will fold here is probaly some AK and even then I don't know how likely that is. What's you're image as well? That's actually really important here.

If you sandbag your sets on the flop and shove 'em on the turn, this is fine.

nh

My image is like a normal reg I guess.


18/14 ish or so I am not sure

You have about 30% equity against basically anything (sets, AK, KJ, etc).

If he calls your EV is 70% of -$50, which is -$35. If he folds you win $20 minus rake. So basically, he has to fold about 60% of the time for this move to be profitable.

Let's assign a range that he would be betting $9 with on the turn: {22, 77, KK, JJ, KJs, KJo, KQs, KQo, AKs, AKo, AA} and maybe some double barrel bluff hands. I'm not sure how wide he's stealing so it's possible he could have some weaker kings in that range.

Problem is I really don't see him folding much of that range to a very bluffy looking shove. He probably folds KQ, he obviously folds any bluffs, and he folds weak kings, but I don't think we can assume he folds AK or KJ, and I doubt he folds AA. It's hard to imagine KQ, weak kings, and bluffs making up more than half of his range here, so I think you're going to get called more often than not when you shove this.

Looks to me like shoving is -EV here.