So theres 6 combos of AA 9 combos of AK does this make it a value jam then?

and hold up..

is there not 2 combos of K8s? clubs and spades?

and same with 84s? Diamonds and clubs?

the K884 on board is a full rainbow, so K8s 84s each have just one suit left.

he might have K8o as well, but you know, if he is that aggro pre, he might also have AJcc and decide to call, cause you rep "nothing"

Again your right i dunno why im being ******ed lol. He seemed to 3b suited a lot pre so i dont think K8o was in his range. How many combos do we have to be ahead of to make it a profitable shuv tho like if theres 9 combos that beat us and like say there is (for example) 10 that we beat? what result can we derive from that? So we win 10 out of 19 times 52.6% EV ... Which is kinda thin like say we value bet and get called by a load more combos this would increase our EV and we can fold to a shuv? Surely this is way more +EV...

Like say we have 15 combos that we beat and lose to 9 (63%) whats a good % to have to make this a profitable shuv, I guess we have to compare it to value betting and work out our EV there etc?



the 10 and 15 combos where just examples nothing to do with the hand (even tho the 9 was )

yes if its 10 we beat vs 9 that beat us, jamming is just marginally better than checking behind. and betting smaller to get called by maybe 15 (probably way more) combos is likely higher EV (maybe 70% ahead on a 1/2 pot bet > 52% ahead on a 3/2 pot bet).

Then you have the problem of playing vs a raise.. you say bet/fold but he might check raise bluff sometimes ?! (of course he will not do that often. but if he check raises just 6 value combos, you need like 1 bluff combo to be able to call, which is possible, like a frustrated 65 or so).

So betting smaller is not too easy to evaluate. But if jamming is very thin, it's a good alternative, yes.

Here's how i see it;

normally I would flat call flop but with a) a maniacal image and b) flush draw on the flop I think this is an exception for me. I think you should be focusing in on the your image and your opponents likelyhood of calling you a bit light. The other thing is that two club dynamic. Its pretty big in this situation because a) it puts something in your range that he can beat with just about anything (the draw) which could get him to raise you right back and b) if you flat the flop and a club gets there it could dry up your action and let him get away from some hands and c) he could actually have the draw and you're letting him take one off. To me this all adds up to a pretty clear raise on the flop. Then there's the obvious point that you want to start building a pot incrementally so you can get it all in on the river.

If you would have raised him on the flop and say he just called then if he bets and you raise your stack/pot ratios should be such that you can get his whole stack in with a much weaker range.

As played i think you should have put in just a slightly bigger bet on the turn. The game plan at that time should have been to make a bet that would let him stack off on the river. Your turn bet left the stack sizes really akward on fifth street and i think that's where all the trouble is with the hand. I know your bet looked pretty good on the turn (size wise) but you have to be thinking a street ahead here and the small sacrafice of making a slight overbet on the turn probably more than makes up for itself by getting the pot/stack size right for a good shove OTRiver.

I think that is really the only place you went wrong in this hand, just not thinking ahead and building the pot perfectly. But hindsights 20/20. NOt that you played it poorly or anything..not sure i'd have done better in "the heat of battle" but the more i think in these terms heads up in big hands the easier the game gets for me.

So on the flop you should have (ideally) been thinking it thru to the end and building a pot. You really did have ideal circumstances for a raise i think. Then if he make a bet on the turn that's the same % of the pot you could just make a standard raise and things would have looked a lot better on fifth street.


As played I don't think you can ever really bet/fold but what you could have done differently is not jammed and just made a normal sized value bet, maybe 2/3 pot or something. That would let him call with a lot more hands. The downside is that he will have hands that could have called it all and lost but i think it is maybe made up for by the fact that it may have got a hero call as your opponent may just think you're not repping much and call with anything that has any chance of winning. The down side of being stuck to it if he reraises is nothing really as you put it all in anyway and you never know, he may even make some kind of spewy frustration raise with a small busted flush draw or turn a combo draw into a bluff if he's really bad and he thinks you are really bad.

ALl and all i think you played it fine and got unlucky.