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50NL - River decision w/ a top set 50NL - River decision w/ a top set

10-29-2009 , 11:31 PM
Villain is 17/2 in 314 hands. Somewhat regular nit. Aggression frequencies on streets: F: 30, T: 43, R: 9.

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (UTG+1): $101.25
UTG+2: $51.55
MP1: $50.00
MP2: $24.10
CO: $50.75
BTN: $64.00
SB: $51.65
BB: $51.65
UTG: $167.95

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG+1 with Q Q
1 fold, Hero raises to $1.75, 5 folds, SB calls $1.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($4.00) 6 J Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.50, SB calls $2.50

Turn: ($9.00) T (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $5, SB requests TIME, SB raises to $15, Hero calls $10

River: ($39.00) 4 (2 players)
SB requests TIME, SB bets $32.40 all in, Hero ?

My thought process:
I think my bet-sizing is too small on the Flop and Turn considering the board is sooo drawy.

Turn: At this point most likely hands villain could have is AK, 89, JJ, 66, QJ. It is not likely that he called a Preflop Raise fr SB w/ 89, 66 or QJ, because he only calls 7% of Preflop Raises fr blinds and is a huge nit. Also he would probably raise hands like JJ, 66 and QJ on the Flop, because the board is so drawy. We're getting 2.9:1 pot odds to call and we have 3.6:1 odds of improving. Also there is a chance we are good here or villain is bluffing.

River: Villain Bets or Raises only 9% of hands on the River so it's hard to think that he would Bet w/ worse hands when there is a straight and flush possible on the board. Essentially we have only a bluff catcher. For us to profitably call a bluff here we must think that he does it 45% of times which is probably not correct.

I'm not really sure my thought process on the River is good and because he is so passive I think my assumption that he would Raise sets or two pairs on the Flop may be off and that would mean that I have relative showdown value.

Feel free to comment.
50NL - River decision w/ a top set Quote
10-29-2009 , 11:46 PM
Closer to pot on the flop, closer to pot on the turn and shove over the c/r.

Basically, bet much bigger for value on the first two streets.
50NL - River decision w/ a top set Quote
10-30-2009 , 02:02 AM
I think this is a fold...assigning villain a generous range of JJ/TT/AK/AKs/66:

Board: Qs Jd 6d Ts 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.000% 64.00% 00.00% 16 0.00 { JJ-TT, 66, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 36.000% 36.00% 00.00% 9 0.00 { QcQh }

so it looks like the price your getting on the river here is good. However if you take 66 and TT out of his range your price sux so prob fold.
50NL - River decision w/ a top set Quote
10-30-2009 , 05:34 AM
I'm 3-betting a committing amount on the turn over the c/r, and I don't think it's particularly close.

I think villain can be semi-bluffing with TONS of pair + 1-card draw hands, or pair + fd's, etc

I think if we just flat the c/r and fill up on the river it kills our action a lot

Most of all I think you're vastly underestimating the frequency that villain is v-betting or semi-bluffing with way worse (like 70/30 behind) that I think you can feel fine about stacking off on the turn to the c/r with top set.
50NL - River decision w/ a top set Quote
10-30-2009 , 05:36 AM
Keep in mind that though we have three queens, we DON'T have the queen of diamonds... and think about how many combos of hands that one particular card is a part of to make a villain go crazy with a wide drawy/semi-bluffy range here.

AQ, KQ, QJ, QT, Q9, with one or two diamonds, etc

All currently crushed by top set with 1 card to come.

If he'll stack it off, get it in BEFORE the whichever draw he's drawing to gets there that you CAN'T put him on, if you lose pot control and initiative on turn...
50NL - River decision w/ a top set Quote

      
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