BTN is a 35/21 with 20% button coldcall over 100 hands

BB is 15/11/1.8 over 1k hands.

5% BB 3b
11% BB Cold call
7% 3b vs open from CO
2% Squeeze

8% Donk bet

Aggression: 24%/28%/24%


So pre is standard. I figure BTN's flatting range to be like any 2 broadways, suited aces, SCs, any PP. Probably 3bets AA/KK. BB's flatting range is gonna be a bit wider than normal cos of the fish (BB will at minimuim have the same stats as me on BTN). I'd guess ATs+/ATo+/KTs+/KJo+/QJ/22-JJ/some SCs.


So he donks flop. With the fish in the hand I guess he can do this for value with his Ax hands sometimes. He can probably do it with made flushes but I imagine he would c/r them more. He can definitely have 99/22. I flat to keep the fish in and cos nothing worse calls a raise, considering I have K.


Turn is a brick and I imagine his value range won't have changed much. However without the fish in the hand now would he still be betting Ax? Kinda lost on this turn and not sure of the best plan.

Doesn't look too good for us.

His 2 street donking range wth the fish gone has us well beaten. It's hard to resist peelng the turn, but given that we can't call a river bet without making a flush that we might not get value from, it could actually be a fold. Doubt anyone could ever actually fold in gameflow though.

do you think he can be value betting worse
do you think he's capable of folding a set on turn or river (on bricks)

If neither, fold now

Well he could easily value bet with any A here because he puts you on a FD or a bad A with the passive line you have chosen. Please raise the flop, if he doesn't give you a free card shove the turn. You do not want to play this hand passively because the 4th club is going to kill any action, so raise early in the hand use your equity and fold equity while they are the strongest.

What better hands is he ever going to fold?

maybe baby flushes. The point is to use your equity now as opposed to just calling to hit your club and getting zero action after. If you stove your hand vs. his range you would know how strong your hands is. 22,99,A9+ and flopped sc flushes are behind your equity. That's right behind. Folding here is just not smart and c/c will make you less money in the long run against villains that can fold. The only way I can see c/c'ing is if the villain is a spewtard because he will continue with a range that is crushed by yours.

We have position on villain, so we can't C/C.

Also:

Board: Ac 2c 9c 8d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 18.506% 18.51% 00.00% 114 0.00 { AhKc }
Hand 1: 81.494% 81.49% 00.00% 502 0.00 { 99, 22, A9s, QcJc, QcTc, JcTc, 8c7c, 7c6c, 6c5c }

Not sure what version of pokerstove you're using to have villain behind (that's right, behind) our equity?


Cliffs: please stop posting.

Thankyou for your wholehearted condescension, it is appreciated.

By your logic he is betting the turn with a range which includes AT/AJ/AQ, with or without a club. It's pushing it to assume he even does it with the combos with a club; what worse hands does he think I call again on the turn with? Yeah he can bet the flop with those hands to get value from the fish but does he expect me to call him down with a worse Ax? A single club?

Please post your stove with the hands that you think he has.

A9,AT,AJ,AQ,99,22 and all sc flopped flushes ie QcJc,JcTc, etc down to 4c3c.Being that you don't raise the flop it's not at all out of the normal to value bet the turn w/AT+. If you raised the flop and he ships it or still value bets the turn your behind, or if he value bets the turn and river your behind. But just because you called a flop bet does not mean your range is super strong, you would have called that flop bet with just the Kc or pretty much any A especially if you think the fish is gonna call.
p.s I even removed any Ax combos that did not have a club
66,22,Ad9d,Ah9h,As9s,QcJc,JcTc,Tc9c,9c8c,8c7c,7c6c ,6c5c,5c4c,4c3c,AdQc,AhQc,AsQc,AdJc,AhJc,AsJc,AdTc ,AhTc,AsTc,Ad9h,Ad9s,Ah9d,Ah9s,As9d,As9h
AK-52.2%/47.7 BTW by c/c'ing I mean that we let him continue to lead

So you think that I should raise/fold the flop?

Call flop, call turn.

or raise flop get in.

No, you just fold out his Ax hands if you raise! His stack off range will only be sets, 2pair and flushes. Stove against that range, but i guess you are not in good shape....

To be honest i'm not sure about the turn, if you call and hit your flush, you won't get value from anything. Also you are not getting the odds to call, also if you add the 3 left kings for 2 pair, you can't profitable call this bet. But if you think he would have flatted pre with AQ for example, and donk 2 streets, then call.

Yeah I was more meaning, you think I should raise/fold flop, wtfbbq?

Yeah that's my thinking. I'd only be calling turn because I think he can lead here with worse Ax hands.


Thing is OTF yeah his donking range might be wide-ish with the fish there but his stacking range is gonna be like:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.472% 31.58% 04.90% 4064 630.00 { AhKc }
Hand 1: 63.528% 58.63% 04.90% 7546 630.00 { 99, 22, QcJc, JcTc, 8c7c, 7c6c, 6c5c, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdKh, AdKs }

So even if I stick in some AK combos that he might (imo it's unlikely) stack, we aren't in great shape.

Vs what I think his stacking range is:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.707% 30.71% 00.00% 3344 0.00 { AhKc }
Hand 1: 69.293% 69.29% 00.00% 7546 0.00 { 99, 22, QcJc, JcTc, 8c7c, 7c6c, 6c5c }

Guess it isn't terrible.

I think AK would be more often then not in his 3-betting range.... And sometime AQ too, what's your fold to 3-bet%? And how does he overall see you?

FT3B overall is like 70, in the CO a little less.

Sees me as a TAG reg who steals a lot in LP, fairly aggro post but nothing too spazzy. We haven't tangled in any major hands or stacked off light vs each other.

Yeah I do agree those hands will almost certainly be in his 3b range, which was why I was reluctant to stove them.

hes likely barreling river and we dont know if he does it with worse fold turn

what a weird line looks like an A9s or sets.

not 100% whats right

river is an easy fold but i think turn is a fold.

edit: idk how river can even be a question. he can't be bluffing with the Kc and he can't have worse for value

I think the key is that letting him lead and calling will make you less money in the long run against villains that CAN fold. YOU want to lead, so take it away on the flop. If he's LAG or spewy let him lead because you have a great hand. Most of the regs hands that you crush like AT,AJ,AQ are only going to bet two streets at most vs you. So you can lose one street of value from that small portion of his range or you can gain tremendous value by building a pot before the 4th club, because after it falls you will get zero value from most regs. what I'm thinking about know is if your fold equity is enough because his stack off range is gonna be like a 70% favorite.

you see a shove here the majority of the time ime against anybody with a clue. Also if we raise AT-AQ are probably folding or calling once and folding which nets the same as two calls from us.

I don't understand what you are advocating now? You want to raise the flop to take the lead, but if I raise flop he will fold all worse hands and stack off with sets and flushes, against which I have like 30% equity. How is this possibly good?

Donk flop bet range (66,22,Ad9d,Ah9h,As9s,QcJc,JcTc,Tc9c,9c8c,8c7c,7c6 c ,6c5c,5c4c,4c3c,AdQc,AhQc,AsQc,AdJc,AhJc,AsJc,AdTc ,AhTc,AsTc,Ad9h,Ad9s,Ah9d,Ah9s,As9d,As9h) total of 29 hands
stack off range (99,22,QcJc,QcTc,Qc9c,JcTc,Jc9c,Tc9c,Tc8c,9c8c,9c7 c,8c7c,7c6c,6c5c,5c4c,4c3c) total of 16 hands...so around 45% FE. we have enough FE if he WILL fold A9 (2 pair)
Let me know if this looks correct. I assume pretty much everyone is folding 2pair on that board. If not we can add those hands to his stack off range but it will change his equity from 70%.

You've included 9 in some of those combos and it's on the board. Other than that it looks reasonable.

Do an equity calc showing it's +EV and you'll have me convinced.

took out the two lowest flushes from the range above and added in the two combos of A9s instead...

everytime we get in we lose $15.67 and going by the assumption of 45% fe this is what we get.

.45*7.75-.55*15.67=
3.49-8.62=-5.13

a loss of 10bbs

disclaimer: i added in rake

Ok TY,
Here are the ranges, you can copy paste straight onto stove. Feel free to mess around with them.
Flop donk bet range 52.1%(9d9h,9d9s,9h9s,2d2h,2d2s,2h2s,Ad9d,Ah9h,As9s ,QcJc,JcTc,8c7c,7c6c,6c5c,5c4c,4c3c,AdQc,AhQc,AsQc ,AdJc,AhJc,AsJc,AdTc,AhTc,AsTc,Ad9h,Ad9s,Ah9d,Ah9s ,As9d,As9h)31 hands
Stack off range 69.2%(9d9h,9d9s,9h9s,2d2h,2d2s,2h2s,QcJc,QcTc,JcTc ,Jc8c,Tc8c,8c7c,8c6c,7c6c,7c5c,6c5c)16 hands.
That's if we assume he folds 2pair and baby flushes (5c-4c,4c-3c)