I am always confused by these situations, I dont want to fold preflop obviously but when a low card flop comes I always seem to get in trouble. Check calling seems like the way to go but if the villain keeps firing do i really want to stack off or let him hit a hand? check raising flop also doesn't really appeal as it just seems to fold out all his bad hands and i get stacked when I am beaten.

villain is 15/12/4.5 with 2.6 3 bet percentage over 635 hands(all datamined no history)

Cheers

$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG Hero ($50.00)
UTG+1 Snooken83 ($88.51)
CO opzt ($53.35)
BTN lion12345 ($15.07)
SB HawHawHawHa ($99.40)
BB Toobby ($53.95)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 6 players) Hero is UTG Q Q
Hero raises to $1.75, 1 fold, opzt raises to $6, 3 folds, Hero calls $4.25

Flop: 4 2 8 ($12.75, 2 players)
Hero checks, opzt bets $9, Hero calls $9

Turn: 9 ($30.75, 2 players)
Hero checks, opzt checks

River: K ($30.75, 2 players)
Hero checks, opzt bets $18,

As played, fine if folded river. check/call river if A or K doesn't hit. He would be double barreling AA or KK at least if he held those hands.

I like it. I don't think check/raising sucks tho.

hes pretty scared doing an 18$ bet into a 30$ pot and he would have doublebarreld aa/kk/maybe jacks,sets, queens he has are unlikely but possible. i dont think his 18$ is a "call me" bet, so i call it and see ak,aq,aj. depends on villain. a weaker, passive guy shows AK here often so i wouldnt call a bet from him.

I actually think the $18 bet on the river was a great bet if villain indeed did have AK. The way hero played it by the river, it looked as if hero had 1010-JJ from villain's viewpoint.

played fine imo. After he checks turn a non A/K river is a snap call.
His 3 b percentage is low enough that you can put him on TT+, AK, AQ and a rare broadway suited, small pp, or other suited connector if he thinks you're being really aggressive (so I think KQ, KJ, QJ, JT are a small portion of his range.) I emphasize that the broadway suited, small pp, suited connector stuff is quite a small portion of his range compared to the TT+, AK portion.
i don't think that he'll ever play TT-AA like this, but he will play AK, AQ and that small portion of his range that is broadway suited and the other stuff.
If you're ahead on this river it's bc he has AQ, ATs, QJs, or JTs and decided to rep the K to get you to fold a pp. In almost all other cases (barring some very rare wild play) he's betting a decent K for value. Since the bluffs are a comparatively small portion of his range, I think that you can definitely fold that river. He doesn't have the random broadway suited or other sc often enough to make a call profitable here imo.

thanks guys. I actually folded so no result to add.

Anybody c/shove that flop?
I think that's a pretty decent play as we get looked up by JJ, TT enough and fold out AK.

i would definitely call the river with ak. especially if you check to me 3 times thats just a ridiculous bluff i think.

I would probably 4-bet PF in this spot. It does some what depend on ours and villains prior images though, but he has to give us credit for a big hand. We fold out AQ and down and most likely JJ and down, making our hand pretty easy to play post flop, should villain decide to continue.

I don't quite understand your flop and turn checks, and you've under repped your hand soooo much here that you've lost a lot of potential value on these streets. I'm probably check-raising the flop and leading the turn, looking to get it in somewhere on those 2 streets.

River is a bad card for you, ldo. By the way you've played the hand, villain must know you're weak, which would explain the $18 into $30 bet. He's most likely doing this with AK, AQ, QQ, JJ and TT. Poissibly he's done it with aces or kings, but I think he fires all three streets with those two hands.

As played, call river since your hand is under repped and see what he's 3-betting you with etc. There's a good chance you'll take it down too.

I see that as a huge problem, those are the hands that we do want to stay in. His 4bet range is very tight and hero raised UTG. And because we have no history, I don't think that he'd be shoving AK over our 4bet. Given that I think we only get 5bet all in vs KK/AA. Effective stacks are only 100BB so I don't think he is just flat calling a 4bet. So I would think that a 4bet is valuable only as a bluff or folding out weaker hands.

On the flop I think a good idea would to be bet/3bet all-in. If he has KK/AA, then it's just a cooler and we move on. But say he has 99/TT/JJ, we might stack some of those hands if he thinks we are playing the FD this way. And if he has AK, we at least get some value if he tries to bluff us out or floats us and he tries to catch his six outer.

I disagree with ZaneKinetic; AK and QQ are effectively the same hand in terms of hand strength, i.e. they are hands to be aggressive with but can't stand excessive heat. I like a 4-bet here as we are out of position; if we were in the CO/button I'd play it much smaller. I'd be folding a 5-bet shove though, as we can safely conclude he has AA/KK in that instance. We fold out everything else and can take down a nice pot with some well-times aggression.

On the flop he is doing exactly what he's supposed to do, and you're letting him take control by playing such a big hand so softly, but by the river this is a fold imo as $18 into a $30 is a nicely sized value bet. If it were in the region of $24 then I'd lean towards calling, but against such a nitty opponent I think the river line is fine.