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50NL: QQ on ugly flop 50NL: QQ on ugly flop

10-19-2008 , 11:28 AM
*Edit* The flop actually isn't that ugly... but submitted the thread before changing the title accidently

I just started taking my first shots at 50NL and well, it sure requires some getting used to hehe. This was one of my most problematic hands so far...

Villain is 14/3/1.2 over 180 hands (river aggression of 3)

Everest $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 10 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (MP3): $66.90
CO: $61.85
BTN: $49.25
SB: $23.75
BB: $9.75
UTG: $10.10
UTG+1: $52.70
UTG+2: $55.40
MP1: $9.80
MP2: $26.85

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP3 with Q Q
UTG calls $0.50, UTG+1 calls $0.50, 3 folds, Hero raises to $3, 5 folds, UTG+1 calls $2.50

Villain calls, can be pp 77+ or something and AJs+/AQo+?

Flop: ($7.25) 9 J J (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $4.50, UTG+1 calls $4.50

Could be worse, I bet out (should be higher?) and get called. Villain could have a J, some pp he's willing to stick around with...

Turn: ($16.25) T (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks

Second mistake? Didn't like the Th at all... 3 to a straight on board. Villain checks to me again and I check behind, I now feel I should've betted again and give up on further resistance.

River: ($16.25) 2 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $9.50, Hero ???

A blank on the river but the passive villain bets out. Ofcourse my check on the turn would allow villain to make a bluff but his aggression factor makes me think he will not bluff THAT often.... What do I do here? Really in doubt...

Last edited by dagrim1; 10-19-2008 at 11:39 AM.
50NL: QQ on ugly flop Quote
10-19-2008 , 11:32 AM
What's the sample size? His normal AF is 1.2 and his river AF is 3, which is strange.

I think you HAVE to call here since you showed so much weakness on the turn. You get floated like 100% by pocket pairs on paired flops. He's giving you good odds too.
50NL: QQ on ugly flop Quote
10-19-2008 , 11:35 AM
In retrospect, I think bet the turn so you don't put yourself in this spot. b/f turn (maybe?)

As played...when I took my first shot at 50, rarely were these 1/2 PSB river bets bluffs. What worse hands is he betting that he's bluffing with? All his UIPPs are going to try for a showdown, which by your turn check, is pretty likely. I don't think you beat anything here.
50NL: QQ on ugly flop Quote
10-19-2008 , 11:44 AM
Sorry, history was over 180 hands but those were mainly 25NL then since I now only played a 160 hands on 50NL hehe. Also added the nr hands to the opening post.

I think I should've betted the turn yeah, it made me really have no idea where I stood on the river after checking it behind. His betting size also looked more like a valuebet then a bluff (then again, that's even better if you make your bluffs scarier with lower bets ).

Afterwards I think he might try to protect a real hand on the turn? Unless he's unbeatable there already but again... such a low AF.
50NL: QQ on ugly flop Quote
10-19-2008 , 12:07 PM
Whats he limping in with, then calling a substantial raise? I would put him on a pocket pair. He correctly might not put someone on a flush draw just because its out there, but IMHO he (judging from stats) really doesn't enjoy variance and either waited to see if flush hit or waited to see if you looked weak. (high river AF) Im not sure if the river bet is pot control/blocking or a value bet. Whats his bet river freq? I would call, you could easily have the winning hand and if not you'll still gain valuable info on his play.
50NL: QQ on ugly flop Quote
10-19-2008 , 12:17 PM
I think you need to bet turn for Value if he's bluff catching with a low PP (-88) he might call with what ever T is in his range. Also the turn bet gives you a lot of information, he raises - easy fold, he calls we get a cheap SD when he checks the river or a rare time when you hit a Q you can get your stack in. The guy is passive but I think this C/C flop line is a lot of stuff you beat (basically PP).

I think A9 could be in his range, I'm still unsure about these guys limp calling range UTG.

I'm not sure about river as played. You beat air and AT A9, does he bet 88 here?
50NL: QQ on ugly flop Quote
10-19-2008 , 12:33 PM
I'd call because of good odds and to learn some more info, QQ is a good bluff catcher in this spot

I also don't think necessarily checking behind is so bad on the turn.
-you keep the pot manageable
-you avoid the turn c/r
-you set up a possible river bluff
-you get value out of lower PP's and Ax kind of hands
50NL: QQ on ugly flop Quote
10-19-2008 , 02:25 PM
I feel like I should've either checked the turn to call a riverbet on non-bad river card (like the one here) or bet turn and fold to a raise/bet on river. The way I played it now left me with a crappy feeling
50NL: QQ on ugly flop Quote
10-19-2008 , 03:09 PM
I think the flop bet is to small. I go $5.50-$6.

You almost have to bet turn, for value, and information. IMO.

He limped, called, check, call, check....just seems like a small pair. He figures you don't have a J and flop is a CB, and he is ahead in his mind.

Turn bet $12.

As played I call river, just seems like you CB and than gave up. If he has a small pair he is betting for value. Would be shocked if this was KQ, or
50NL: QQ on ugly flop Quote
10-19-2008 , 04:08 PM
I think Villain may be bluff catching with a PP because you looked weak on the flop because you didn't bet enough. Then, your turn check makes you looks weak again. So, you have to call the river bet because you've underplayed the strength of your hand from Villain's perspective so Villain may be taking a shot against you.

I don't mind a turn check because I don't want to have to fold a OESD to a big c/r from a tight villain.
50NL: QQ on ugly flop Quote
10-19-2008 , 04:32 PM
I think this hand was played well - as long as you call the river bet.
50NL: QQ on ugly flop Quote

      
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