no stats cuz i have no HEM (-EV i know)

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 622277
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $50.00
UTG: $86.75
Hero (MP): $98.40
CO: $50.00
BTN: $54.75
SB: $80.35

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP with Q Q
1 fold, Hero raises to $1.75, 2 folds, SB calls $1.50, BB calls $1.25

Flop: ($5.25) 4 4 9 (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $4, SB calls $4, BB folds

Turn: ($13.25) 5 (2 players)
SB bets $7.25, Hero calls $7.25

River: ($27.75) 8 (2 players)
SB bets $28.25, Hero ?

Call.

Its like villain changes gears between flop and turn, c/c flop and donking turn is not a consistent line. As far as worst hands are concerned, the turn donk is explainable as a blocking/protection bet for 66-88, TT-JJ but the river overbet looks like value he is trying to catch up on, which is inconsistent.

88/55 makes the most sense to me because it explains the change in his line. 99/44 are also very possible, if you see someone taking a strange line on a paired board like this when they have no reason to be bluffing, than its very often their ridiculous and unbalanced way of trying to extract value with a monster. He c/c the flop to get value from air but then donks the turn to take control of the bet-sizing to try and maximize value (although his turn bet-sizing is a little small to be consistent with this).

The river is the most telling to me that his range is nutted. I'd call turn and fold river.

thanks gateswi, very good analysis

Yeah, 55 makes the most sense to me

i called and he showed 99