BU is a 26/18 stationy/passive player. His 3bet% is 9.4 in 32 opportunities. In one hand with villain, he 3bet my HJ raise from the CO with KJdd then cbet/called a shove on 7c9dTc board. In another hand, he called a 2/3pot flop bet and a +1/2pot turn bet with 33 IP on 624Jr a board.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Replayer from Poker Hands Replayer



BB ($12.60)
UTG ($151.35)
MP ($57.20)
Hero (CO) ($50)
Button ($105.30)
SB ($16.55)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 8, 9
UTG bets $2, 1 fold, Hero calls $2, Button calls $2, 2 folds

Flop: ($6.75) 7, 3, 6 (3 players)
UTG bets $4, Hero raises to $14, Button calls $14, 1 fold

Turn: ($38.75) 9 (2 players)
Hero ($34) ?

Turn
With my nine pairing, is it better for me to check/call or is a shove here OK?

With villain calling so much and given the board texture, the shove would be more for value/protection. The only hands I'm getting value from are 88 and flush draws (if he calls with his flush draws).

However, with villain being passive, I cannot count on him shoving anything besides his sets. Against sets, I have 31.818% equity and need 31.85% equity to call. However, since villain may also shove JJ-TT, we will say a call is slightly +EV.

Theoretically, what is our move here?

Nice graph

If hes 3betting he may not be as passive as you think.

I would check here or bet like $5 to have a 3/4 PSB on the river in case we hit, you have 0 fe against made hands if hes a station and besides, he would check back a ton. and hardly raise your minbet.

You cant semibluff a guy who wont fold, but you will get paid if you hit, so potcontrol the turn, you can get stacks on the river

Fold preflop. As played i think villain has a pretty strong range when he calls the flop and I think our FE on this turn card is fairly minimal. I dont think he ever folds any of the overpairs he calls the flop with on this turn and there are no floats in his turn range given he is OOP. I would say villain has TT-AA here (although he may ship the flop with these), sets and fd's so shoving seems bad. I probably c/c the turn but I would exepect him to check behind quite a lot of the time. It depends tho do you think there are 7x hands in his range or maybe 88 and do you think he calls a turn shove with these. Personally I think this is too small a part of his range to be shoving the turn for value.

BTN should be shoving sets on the flop like always. I def like shoving turn.

Also if BTN 3bs 9% why would he ever have TT-AA here...

What does he call with that we are ahead of. 88? 7x?

edit: eurgh hang on I thought UTG called the raise on the flop. Given that it's BTN and hes a preflop calling station I'm probably shoving this turn all day cos we have waaay more FE vs his range amirite?

I don't think he has much of QQ-AA. Perhaps some TT-JJ, PERHAPS. Also, given prior reads, I think he may be capable of calling a shove with more than I originally stated, perhaps maybe even 55-44?

Ye I based that range on UTG didnt see that it was BTN who had cold called.

Doesn't villain act first on turn?

This would be a spot I might be willing to see a free card. If he the station you think he is, would you get a call on the river if you hit?

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

152,460 games 0.016 secs 9,528,750 games/sec

Board: 7s 3d 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.998% 38.94% 00.05% 57446 80.00 { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+ }
Hand 1: 61.002% 60.95% 00.05% 89904 80.00 { 9d8d }


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We're OOP.

I like shoving here, because we have pretty good equity, and our stack is less than the pot.
sets would have raised a flop, so he probably has PP, vs them we don't need FE at all, if villain has FD too we have turned pair. So we dont' have to worry about anything.

shove,shove!!!