MP2: 14/12/4.5 (agg 6.7 4.8 0.9) 1.7K hands
Fold to 3bet%: 69%
Fold to cbet 3betpot: 25%

Hero: 15/11/2

Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG: $50.00
UTG+1: $44.80
MP1: $50.00
MP2: $74.55
CO: $52.75
BTN: $50.00
Hero (SB): $54.30
BB: $60.95

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with K A
3 folds, MP2 raises to $1.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $5, 1 fold, MP2 calls $3.50

Flop: ($10.50) T 9 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $7.50, MP2 calls $7.50

Turn: ($25.50) Q (2 players)
Hero ????

Gutter plus NFD plus two overs. So you have 10 outs to the virtual nuts plus another 8 dirty outs. On the other hand the villan is reasonable, and has called a 3 bet and a continuation bet, so I expect them to have something. In game I would probably double barrel, but looking at in now a check shove sounds pretty sexy. It's probably FPS though.

shipaments

I don't expect a call with less than a set or KK....maybe JJ hero call because "well I have outs, **** it"

$16.50. you're extremely unlikely to get a fold but will some % and you're setting your own price provided you don't get shoved on in which case you have a decision.

the problem with ch/shove is he's likely to bet all his strong hands and check back JJ-. there aren't many floats to be had on this board.

If we bet $16.50 and get shoved on we are beat obviously but can we still fold? We invested $29 and have $25 left with $83 in the pot.

Grunch: Eff stacks are 41.80 pot is 25.50.

Lets assume we shove and are always called. What equity do we need to make this +EV obv: 67.3:41.8=38% equity.

1. Villain is loose: 99-KK, AK

Against the range of KK, QQ, TT and 99 we have around 25% equity (this is a reasonable calling range right?)

Let's assume his flop calling range is 99-KK and a few floats say 2 combos of AK. If we check, he will bet KK, QQ, TT, 99 (12 combos) and 2 combos of AK. When we raise he will fold AK (which means he folds 2/14=14% of the time).

If we shove, he will call with KK, QQ, TT and 99 (thus folding 8 combos in total 6 JJ and 2 AK meaning he folds 8/20=40% of the time).

EV of shove=25.50x0.4+(0.25x67.3-0.75x41.8)x0.6
EV=1.49

Let's assume he bets $17.50 when checked to. Against JJ we have 30% equity and will only bet otr when improved and we will never be called.

EV of check raise=6/20x25.5x0.3+2/20x43+(0.25x67.3-0.75x41.8)x12/20
EV=-2.12

(Note that if we are wrong about bluffing frequencies and villain doesn't bluff, c/ring EV=-7.13 and EV of shove=-1.18 also)

shove(slightly)>fold>c/r

2. Villain is tight JJ-KK, AK

His flop calling range is JJ-KK and 2 combos of AK again as floats.

If we shove, he will call with KK and QQ only (6 combos) fold AK and JJ (8 combos). Against KK and QQ we have 28% equity.

EV of shove=(0.28x67.3-0.72x41.8)x6/14+25.5x8/14
EV=9.75

EV of c/r=25.5x6/14x0.30+(0.28x67.3-0.72x41.8)x6/14+2/14x43
EV=4.60

(If villain doesn't bluff here EV shove=7.12, EV c/r=-1.80)

So overall the most +EV play is a shove and we expect to make somewhere between $1 and $9 or so on average.

Very nice post Lx. But what do you exactly mean bij the shove move. The question was if we should call a shove if we bet the turn.

bij the shove move? If we bet the river we should call if we are getting 3-1 or better which we should be getting so yes.

$17/call.

If you have a read he floats a lot in 3-bet pots and bets turn with his air/light then check/shove seems fine.

Lx12 we are talking about the turn not the river. What if we bet the turn and villain shoves! There is no river decision than. Can we fold to a shove?

Sorry previous post should say if we bet the turn we call with 3-1 or better (which we will have)