Villain was turning out to be a std TAG at 13/12 over 200 or so hands. His EP raise % is 10%. Good line? I figure I get a lot of value since he can't expect many 4s to be in my range, and the only hands I'm worried about are AA and 88.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Poker Stars
SB ($52.25)
BB ($14.20)
UTG ($51.25)
UTG+1 ($49.25)
UTG+2 ($52.65)
MP1 ($59.35)
MP2 ($56.70)
CO ($47.50)
Hero ($75.90)

Dealt to Hero K K

UTG raises to $1.50, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $1.50, fold, BB calls $1

FLOP ($4.75) 4 8 4

BB checks, UTG bets $3, Hero raises to $8, BB folds, UTG raises to $21, Hero raises to $74.40 (AI), UTG calls $28.75 (AI)

Nice hand

yeah cooler if he had AA or 88, I think I play it the same.

well you certainly cant raise/fold the flop. you could call. board is certainly dumb enough to look like bull****. what is your image?

TAG stats as well. 14/11 and I've been playing pretty tight and straightforward for the last hour or so.

Yeah and I'm never raise/folding this board, I like to raise smaller on boards like these because I find it makes people do dumb ****. I just wasn't sure if raise/shoving was too thin or if he'd really get it in with 99+ here. I could call, but I'd rather not lose value if another comes.

well i dont think this is -ev. but we could try and figure out if it is more +ev to flat. would need to make some basic assumptions i think. and think about a variety of turn cards. def need more info on villain. not sure if we have enough available.

I don't think I could get myself to flat KK on the button like that. :P

That having been said, nice hand, I like getting it in here. I don't know how letting a turn come off could be more +EV.

if he fires multiple barrels here. or if he folds a bunch of medium strength hands to our raise but will call a bet on the turn or the river. i mean it's not very hard to see. would have to know what range he is opening from ep. prob tight enough that this is very close but i dont really think you can just straight up dismiss the possibility.

that being said i play like this almost every time cause i bluff raise a lot of flops.

i did this exact same thing on low paired flop to an 11/9 just yesterday. he showed aces. im sure villain in OP's hand has AA too. I talked this spot over with a good 200nl+ FR reg. He said calling down was superior because it keeps in his TT JJ, which are going to barrel on most turns. He's calling your flop raise with 99-QQ, and folding on turn the majority of the time (meaning little river action). Whereas if you call flop and call turn, he will either bet or c/c river some fraction of the time (meaning more river action).

Also, villain is unlikely to have many flush draws in his range and he can't have AdKd b/c you have the blocker.

This is a ******ed flop to bluff raise given positions. That's basically why raising is worse than calling imo. Villain knows your doing it for value and can play you almost perfectly.

Preflop call is good.

fish do. regs will hardly ever 3bet bluff flop. The 200nl reg told me once villain 3bets you here he's got AA about 80% of the time.

this is why bluff raising can be good. but yeah i basically agree that doing this with KK is not optimal. but i really dont think it is -ev.

I thought our reasoning behind flatting pre is not to blow him off of 99 type hands? I think flatting the flop and trying to get more value out of those type hands is best. Is a stardard tag really shipping like 99-jj? once you raises flop?

Do you expect him to play for stacks with QQ vs you?

I dunno, they're probably just freezing up, even though 99 is nearly the same as QQ vs a flop raise.

That would really depend upon his raising range....surely.

my basic assumption is yes to this which is why i think both moves are +ev (+ the time he just whiffs of course). i do agree however that flatting is more +ev as i implied in my original response.

call flop raise flop more baddy

Not even sure what the second half of this means.

from the gregg dictionary:

"as played, raise to something like $9.45 to get the glue going in case he just flats the flop raise"

"baddy" implies that you are a bad player

That may be, but I'm slowly getting my groove back. I haven't played seriously in a while.

sorry im kinda drunk

raise flop more cause ppl they be calling alot cause bad ppl call

and when he 3 bets u should call to let him do that bluffers.

Meeeeeeh, I probably just flat this on the flop.

I like flatting the flop the best. As stated, i don't think he is getting this in even with QQ against you. So flatting and letting him barrel is probably the best way to get value out of this.

Do you guys that say flat really think villain randomly barrels off stuff like AK AQ etc once we flat on this flop?
I prefer gregs line w/ raise/calling flop and getting it in on thr turn...

I don't think he'll often barrel AK/AQ, but I belive we can get more value out of overpairs by flatting, since I doubt he's willing to get it in with like QQ and weaker if we raise this flop.

you would fold qq if you get raised here?