So I don't wanna be posting my BBV hands, and I'm not looking for sympathy. It just seems like everytime I go "lol I have top set, lets get it in!" with this type of action and this type of board, they always have a flush. I try to convince myself that they can have two pair or slowplayed worse set, and maybe it's just my mind remembers the coolers and not the times they DO have two pair. Is this a leak to get all in, when villain is basically unknown (although I am fairly confident he's not a TAG regular).

Again, not looking for sympathy or "lol bbv" I just want to know if this is long term +EV to get all in.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Poker Stars
SB ($26.15)
BB ($77.25)
Hero ($72)
CO ($85.95)
BTN ($116)

Dealt to Hero A A

Hero raises to $1.50, fold, fold, SB calls $1.25, fold

FLOP ($3.50) 5 A J

SB checks, Hero bets $3, SB calls $3

TURN ($9.50) 5 A J 9

SB checks, Hero bets $7.50, SB raises to $15, Hero raises to $26, SB calls $6.65 (AI)

RIVER ($52.80) 5 A J 9 4

Hero shows A A
(Pre 80%, Flop 74.4%, Turn 22.7%)

SB shows T 6
(Pre 20%, Flop 25.6%, Turn 77.3%)

SB wins $50.80

7.50 to call and the pot was $32.50. That's over 4:1 and you were 3:1 dog vs. his actual hand. You can figure that you are better that that against his whole range since it will include some bluffs and and some hands like 2pp or even KJ with K of spades.

Sux to not catch your redraw for the boat, but you had a lot of outs. I think it's a good play.

I think this hand is not a great demonstration of what you're talking about since the villian is seriously shallow. We're not getting the odds stated above since we're effectively calling $14 in a pot of $32 which means we're not getting correct direct odds. Shorty=spaz, so this can be a hand he thinks is a value hand that we're ahead of.

Against deeper stacks I think the question can be more difficult. Mostly we're probably calling when we're getting a correct combination of implied odds to boat up and value against weird hands - JsX sorts. And basically I'm never folding at 50NL against anything but a seriously known rock.

Here's to running into the top of their range. Cheers.

It might sound silly but you need to raise more preflop imo. It's not a big thing but it definately adds up.

And once you get to the turn with top set against a half stack you can basically never fold.

If he had a full stack I think flatting the turn is optimal and reevaluating river but with his stack you dont have much of a choice but just putting him in since chances are he's a noob and could have K9 with Ks, J9, J5 etc etc.

no... you dont

yeah, raise 4bb pre.

turn is standard, because folding top set vs. a 52bb player would be the leak, not vice versa.

whats wrong with 3X?

This, people who normally bet 3x and then bet big hands 4x have a major leak.

true, but not true if you adjust your raise size according to your position and not hand strength.

Guys that call with Ts6s are never going to adjust and fold. "Oh look they are suited where is the call button"

So 4x is better then 3x.

1. You want to raise 4bb preflop because you're UTG, not because you hold aces.
2. The villain has a 52BB stack (he's very bad).
3. I'm never ever folding a set of aces in this situation against this villain, regardless of any possible flushes or draw flushes on the board, so I might consider open shoving the turn. I'm commited anyway and shoving maximizes your fold equity.

the 3x vs. 4x question is one of competing objectives - there are arguments for doing both, but I don't think anything changes here. A player willing to call 3x out of position with T6s probably isn't going to be chased away by 4x.

Against this type of opponent you don't want to "maximise your fold equity". Vs his flush, our FE is exactly 0, vs other hands we want him to call our bets.

this!

You should really openraise bigger UTG, as from UTG ull only open "premium" Hands anway, so you dont mind having a bigger pot. Even more, if you had raise bigger preflop, speculative hands make a bigger mistake preflop and, here, on the flop as well, which is what you want to achieve, maximize the mistakes of our opponents. And I don't think for those sorts of fishes, 1 BB more or less really changes his decision, so, raise 1BB more. From Bu, 3bb openraise is probably fine, as you'll open a huge range (hopefully) and can call 3b cheaper.

Greetz

awesome logic. Lets fold out everything we beat, just because we are never folding. hu4rollz?

We already told him this isnt correct. Talk trash 4 rollz?

As my opening range get wider my raise size gets smaller.

BTN = 2.5x open
CO = 3x open
MP = 3.5x open
UTG = 4x open

This is what I do as a default and then later adjust to table conditions once I get an idea of how people are playing.

I would say he might fold the lower flushes, say anything below Q/J high, but I may be overestimating villain's play.

Villain would have to be a weaktight nit to fold a flush here on turn. Turning AAA into a bluff here makes no sense

How much of the villain's range are we beating in the turn? Given the villain is still in the hand, I pretty much put him on a flush. Again, I might be overestimating his ability...

So you think his entire range for check calling the flop is a flush draw? And do you think anyone would fold any flush to an open shove on the turn?

If you think you're beat, it's a bluff whether you bet 1/2 pot or you shove all-in.

If you think your beat why not call turn raise and c/f river unimproved (or if you know you are beat when spade comes down just check behind and c/f river unimproved). This makes much more sense than bluffing here to me. If villain called flop with fd why would he consider folding when he hits it?

As I see it, villain's c/c says he either holds TP (less likely because there's only one ace left in the deck) or a weak flush draw or backdoor flush draw. I guess he would c/r with a strong flush draw (ace or king high), a set or even two pair. The weak flush draw is obv not his entire range, but I'd say it's his most probable holding. I surely may be wrong...

I think there's a good chance anyone will fold a J high or lower flush to an open shove...