$0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 38.78 BB (VPIP: 35.48, PFR: 6.45, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 31)
Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 110.56 BB (VPIP: 26.32, PFR: 21.05, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 41)
BB: 78.5 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
UTG: 108.5 BB (VPIP: 11.54, PFR: 7.69, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 53)
MP: 128.78 BB (VPIP: 21.42, PFR: 16.53, 3Bet Preflop: 6.32, Hands: 1,000)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q K

UTG raises to 3 BB, MP calls 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (10.5 BB, 3 players) 7 J Q
UTG checks, MP bets 7.5 BB, Hero calls 7.5 BB, fold

Turn: (25.5 BB, 2 players) 4
MP checks, Hero bets 13 BB, MP raises to 39.5 BB, Hero calls 26.5 BB

River: (104.5 BB, 2 players) 8
MP bets 78.78 BB and is all-in

V's X/R is 3% overall and 0 on ott (0/12). Notes suggest river shoves will be weighted heavily towards value hands.
I feel it's a pretty obvious fold otr. My question is about play ott; I don't think shoving accomplishes much but a fold seems super nitty. Is anyone taking a different line here?

Fold turn, villain is ridic strong here with nearly always a set.

Why did you lead turn?

Just XC turn X decide river pretty unlikely we ever get 3 streets vs a nit without hitting 2p+

Hero is IP so he didn't lead turn, he bet when checked to.

Don't like bet/folding the turn really with the odds we are getting to draw to our flush. River a definite fold though when we miss.

Why not just check back the turn? There is a decent chance he has us beat, and I would like some pot control here. Given the fact he did bet the flop, it's pretty unlikely he has air.

So what might he have? He might have Qx, QJ, maybe KJ, 77, or just defending any pair 66-TT. Don't think AQ or JJ+ is in his range though because he would've raised pre. Our hand is not too bad but why bet? Because he is pretty tight, he might as well fold anything you beat and only call if he has you beat. I would def check back on the turn for a free river. He might turn hands like KJ or 99-TT (on low rivers) into a bluff and we could win some more money, and don't put ourselves in this bad spot by leading the turn.

Given the fact he c/r the turn, we suspect he has QJ or a set, in which case it would definitely be nice to have seen a free river and crack his hand with a flush. Reasons enough to check back I suppose.

I think xing back ott might be better. Useful comment, thanks.

Given how small his x/r% is I think you might be right.

I don't think you can fold the turn...

Even if you give MP a made set, Hero has 18% getting almost 3:1, and should be able to make up the difference on a river spade. Only one spade can pair the board.

I'd call the turn and go to the river in position.

Do you prefer bet calling to xing back then?

If it were me I would have probably bet a slightly larger amount on the turn. 16x? 18x? Something like that, and then calling a similarly-sized raise. I'm a converted LHE player though so that could be too aggressive.

I think you played it fine though a turn check might be better but I don't expect many checkraises here either.

But there is not too much value in a turnbet given that you do not beat his full range (he might even be checking AQ,KK,AA into you)

I would say bet bigger on the turn MP can still call with flush draws, Jx, weaker Qx. Call the x/r of course. River is a reasonable fold.

I doubt what looks like a slightly nittier type reg check calls with much we beat unimproved given the early position and multi way dynamic of the hand on this board texture.

Having said that he shouldn't have us beat a lot (should have some equity in the hand given his flop bet) and we do build a pot for the times we hit our flush.

I don't think the turn bet is bad, i personally prefer checking back just slightly as it manipulates the ranges slightly better in our favour and we are protected versus most of the draws.

As played this seems fine.

I would cbet and x back turn with ratio 8/2. While we really want to control the pot as well as building it up for river value, I think we need to bet bigger to protect our range.
As played, I def folding turn against this villian.

What are we targeting for value OTT? QT, AJ, OESD. We aren't going for 3 streets with this hand, so x/b is going to be good OTT.