Villain is 14/12/8 100%f23b (9/9) over ~220 hands

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com

SB ($59.35)
BB ($21.70)
UTG ($42.45)
UTG+1 ($107.20)
MP1 ($62.60)
MP2 ($54.10)
Hero (MP3) ($52.85)
CO ($20)
Button ($55.25)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K, K
3 folds, MP2 bets $1.75, Hero calls $1.75, 4 folds

Flop: ($4.25) 4, 7, 5 (2 players)
MP2 bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50

Turn: ($9.25) 9 (2 players)
MP2 bets $5, Hero calls $5

River: ($19.25) 8 (2 players)
MP2 bets $10, Hero folds

Total pot: $19.25 | Rake: $0.95



So i think i leveled myself looking at stats over this small sample. The fold to 3b + ag factor made me want to flat and let him valuetown himself. However, once I got what i wanted to decided to fold on the river (looking back i think this is baaaaad based on my plan).

On the river, all I beat is TT JJ and QQ, but I don't know if villain would be putting on the breaks with these hands at this point or not. Im still behind 44-99, AA, and AdKd or AdQd. So really all I have is a bluff catcher if he turns his smaller overpairs into bluffs.

One other thought I had during the hand was the $10 river bet sizing. I think if he bet $11 or $9 I would be more inclined to call, but i look at bets in $5 increments as tells for strength, so this swayed my thoughts as well. Anyone else confirm/agree with this 'tell'?

In before 3b pre

If your going to play a hand passively, then you should be calling the river.

Every time I don't 3bet pre...I wish I would have 3bet pre.

Yeah, as played, I'd call the river. I don't hate a small raise on the turn though, to get value from AdX.

I think this is a pretty clear call getting 3:1 with an underrepped hand.

Board: 4d 7d 5s 9d 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.977% 55.81% 01.16% 24 0.50 { TT+, 77, 55-44, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, KdQd, KdJd, 65s }
Hand 1: 43.023% 41.86% 01.16% 18 0.50 { KcKh }

We need to take out all combos of TT and JJ before this becomes a fold.

3bet PF, raise flop, call river.

easy call...I would say based on this guys line he either has a flush or nothing