I've been on a wicked bit of a downswing/break even stretch the last 20k hands and seem to always be stacking off light and am trying to refigure some things out.

Villian 1-10/10/1.6 through 100 hands. EP is 0/0 through 17 hands
Villian 2-10/10/2.5 through 40 hands.


Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: $51.75
BB: $44.15
UTG: $134.70
UTG+1: $74.75
UTG+2: $67.80
Hero (MP1): $98.60
MP2: $50.45
CO: $20.00
BTN: $60.95

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP1 with K K
UTG raises to $1.50, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls $1.50, Hero raises to $6.50, 1 fold, CO raises to $20 all in, 3 folds, UTG calls $18.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $13.50

Flop: ($62.25) Q J 2 (3 players - 1 is all in)

Based off Villian1's stats, I am fairly sure I am behind everything that takes the line he took. His UTG open range (even through a small sample) at a minimum is QQ+ with possibly AKs calling a 3 bet. I have just over a pot sized bet left at this point and don't see any hand that I calls that I am ahead of. We chop with KK, I'm behind any PP he calls a 3bet with and a 2.3:1 with AK.

With a PSB left and dead money in the pot from the SS in LP can I profitably ship the flop? Or do I need to c/f here?

This hand is awkward because the money from the SS isn't dead money since he is all in. I know we are deep here, but im not ditching my overpair with only a PSB left on the flop. With that being said, he is not calling with worse (AK) so I like checking to give him room to make a mistake.

It is a super awkward spot. I have an overpair on a flop where I really think I'm WB/slightly ahead. I hate giving free cards to AK, villian is passive (maybe), I'm not sure with his nitty UTG opening range he lays down AA. I can't make a bet that doesn't commit me, I think he folds out any PP <99 preflop.

I hate folding, I hate checking and I hate shipping. I have no idea how to even think about this hand.

shove pre!

just ship pre or fold.

~PSB left, it's not like UTG has a bluff range that he's going to lead into you on the flop so I don't see the point in flatting:

a) you don't want JJ/QQ folding when the flop comes A or K high and if he's going to cold call a 4bet with those hands and fold to a shove pre after putting in 20% effective stacks with a ton of overlay then that's pretty terrible even 200bb deep. And it's not all that terrible for us if he does fold AK's 30% equity and we add 40bb overlay against CO.

b) if he does happen to have AA and we're not folding preflop or with an overpair postflop, I want to see 5 cards.

this. as played its pretty damn disgusting and i would bang my head 28 times on my desk and time out probably.

fyp

How is shipping KK this deep ever good? I'm folding out JJ, QQ and AK. I'm getting fistpump snapped called by AA.

I think it is fine as played an about the worst flop that I can ever see with KK. Even a QJT flop is so much better. There are about zero worse flops that I can come up with.

qjt is worse. Lots of A high flops are bad too. When he flats pre why didnt you shove?

Your getting it in here on basically any flop with the current SPR, so why make it more difficult?

I'm not sure why I didn't ship it pre. Maybe I had some notion that I could get away from an ace high flop.
SPR says ship it OTF, shipping pre I do get to see all 5 cards.

He checked the flop, I shipped and got shown AA by both of them. FML and so standard.

It is not. It's marginally +EV at the very best.

Calling is certainly better.

I check back the flop and try to see a very cheap SD.

shove pre and love life.

Why would you want to shove 160bb just to get called by aces while you could just call, play a flop in position, and hope to make some money vs QQ-JJ, AK?

That was part of the plan. Unfortunately I am now behind the 4 combos of QQ and JJ and ahead of AK. Bad things and such an awkward spot.

because you lose so much value from those hands if you see a flop...

pretty sure I hate the 3bet all around, imo. Flop is an easy check behind, since there is nothing we beat that he is cold-calling your 3bet, and the shortstack's cold 4bet shove. 3betting KK vs nit's UTG open will see you run into AA a lot. Don't care if it is deep or not, to be honest.

edit - 2nd nit cold 4bet shoving over is going to be a monster a lot, but when the first nit 200bb cold calls OOP with you still to act, I think you are always in trouble.

Not sure I understand. Do you sugggest these hands would call if we shove?