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50NL KA utg facing strange river bet 50NL KA utg facing strange river bet

04-05-2012 , 02:54 PM
Hiya,

Villian is 15/10/3.0 agg, FTCB 67% (6)

Stats over 139 hands.

CO: $68.06 (136.1 bb)
SB: $57.63 (115.3 bb)
BB: $53.08 (106.2 bb)
Hero (UTG): $91.74 (183.5 bb)
UTG+1: $20.28 (40.6 bb)
UTG+2: $51.75 (103.5 bb)
MP1: $61.74 (123.5 bb)
MP2: $42 (84 bb)
MP3: $85.98 (172 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A K
Hero raises to $1.50, 6 folds, SB calls $1.25, BB folds

Flop: ($3.50) T K A (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.30, SB calls $2.30

Turn: ($8.10) 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $5.80, SB calls $5.80

River: ($19.70) J (2 players)
SB bets $8.50, Hero ??????


So can we actually fold here? why would he riverbet $8.50 only? For value or just to let me think he has like Qx?


~THX~
50NL KA utg facing strange river bet Quote
04-05-2012 , 03:04 PM
some players don't like money.

I'll pay this off, I guess, b/c lolpotodds. I can't see him hanging around with QQ, or KQ. AQ seems likely, but so does AJ and AT.
50NL KA utg facing strange river bet Quote
04-05-2012 , 04:19 PM
meh, i dont think he is bluffing. i also dont see what he could blockbet with otr given that a 15/10 is prolly not flatting with many worse Ax vs. your UTG raise. raising as a bluff is out of question so looks like a fold imho.
50NL KA utg facing strange river bet Quote
04-05-2012 , 04:51 PM
I missed that we were UTG, that does change his range quite a bit. Not sure we're beating anything.
50NL KA utg facing strange river bet Quote
04-06-2012 , 05:03 AM
Hmm, but we need to call $8.50 to win $36.70 so we only have to be right a bit less often than 1 in 4 times... Is it still a fold knowing this? In other words he needs to bluff only like 1 in 4 times to make it +EV
50NL KA utg facing strange river bet Quote
04-06-2012 , 06:14 AM
Meh, dont even think were good here 1/4 times.
50NL KA utg facing strange river bet Quote
04-06-2012 , 07:13 AM
Fold the river. He's not bluffing and it's a pretty poor board to be thin value betting on. Even if he's block betting a set he has you.
50NL KA utg facing strange river bet Quote

      
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