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50nl - Interesting river... 50nl - Interesting river...

07-07-2009 , 12:04 AM
I believe I was auto-piloting and somehow decided to raise QTs UTG without noticing:
a) I had two very loose players to my left, one of which was aggressive.
b) I had an ultra-short stack on the btn ready to pop.

Shame on me.

But everyone folds to the SB who is 55/25/2.1 after 68, and has shown ultra aggression (42 steal, 15 3bet) and shows down suspect hands. I've tentatively tagged him as an aggro monkey.

Fortunately for me I flop the nuts.

He snap calls my flop bet, snap calls the turn bet, and quickly checks the river to me.

I can't find a reason to bet the river... is that wrong?

Can you find one?


Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BTN: $8.00
SB: $51.30
BB: $52.30
Hero (UTG): $50.00
MP: $35.90
CO: $50.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG with T Q
Hero raises to $2, 3 folds, SB calls $1.75, 1 fold

Flop: ($4.50) 8 T T (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3, SB calls $3

Turn: ($10.50) A (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $7, SB calls $7

River: ($24.50) A (2 players)
SB checks, Hero can't find a reason to bet... can you?
50nl - Interesting river... Quote
07-07-2009 , 12:14 AM
River card is horrendous. Check behind.
50nl - Interesting river... Quote
07-07-2009 , 12:18 AM
i think this is one of those pretty thin situations where betting is fairly necessary, no?
50nl - Interesting river... Quote
07-07-2009 , 12:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sixlegs
i think this is one of those fairly thin situations where betting is fairly necessary, no?
What is your bet size, and what do you expect the villain to call with? And if he check-raises you (he is, after all, an aggro monkey), what are you doing? If he min-check raises? CRAI?
50nl - Interesting river... Quote
07-07-2009 , 12:25 AM
think you can at least bet real small and hope to get a call from like king/queen high. 55/21 might bite
50nl - Interesting river... Quote
07-07-2009 , 12:31 AM
villain has pretty crazy stats. i'm not ruling out that he isn't ****, but most people that play with those stats at these levels are ****. i'm betting about ~17 and probably calling a shove, personally. reads play into this, as well, obviously. if i think villain has the ability to shove this as a bluff any % of the time, then i'm definitely calling. i know the sample is relatively small but have you seen him float flops oop with junk like A high? wouldn't you expect him to raise this turn with an ace?
50nl - Interesting river... Quote
07-07-2009 , 12:38 AM
bet like 3$.. why not
50nl - Interesting river... Quote
07-07-2009 , 12:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AlanDyer
bet like 3$.. why not
And when he raises with Tx...?
50nl - Interesting river... Quote
07-07-2009 , 01:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sixlegs
villain has pretty crazy stats. i'm not ruling out that he isn't ****, but most people that play with those stats at these levels are ****. i'm betting about ~17 and probably calling a shove, personally. reads play into this, as well, obviously. if i think villain has the ability to shove this as a bluff any % of the time, then i'm definitely calling. i know the sample is relatively small but have you seen him float flops oop with junk like A high? wouldn't you expect him to raise this turn with an ace?
tbh, I expect these types of players to raise more often with bluffs (prior to the river) than with made hands. They are constantly trying to steal pots, so they have a tendency to make big bluffs. The bigger their bet (prior to the river), the more full of **** they typically are. When they have a hand they actually want value from, they tend to keep their bets more in line.

At least that's my thinking/experience.
50nl - Interesting river... Quote
07-07-2009 , 01:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cubase

I can't find a reason to bet the river... is that wrong?

Can you find one?
Nope. Sometimes you can make a small bet to induce a shove from a missed draw, but you need a better read for that.
50nl - Interesting river... Quote
07-07-2009 , 03:12 AM
Fold preflop. Check behind river, I can't find a reason to bet here either. I don't think villain is calling a river bet without at least a T.
50nl - Interesting river... Quote
07-07-2009 , 03:28 AM
I bet like 1/4 1/3 of pot just to milk

[EDIT] OK vs ultra aggro(someone capable of bluffraising) I would check. I dont want to get bluff raised in this spot when betting 1/3 pot
50nl - Interesting river... Quote
07-07-2009 , 11:34 AM
fold preflop btw, play less tables or whatever, don't AUTO PILOT
50nl - Interesting river... Quote

      
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