CO is 37/15/1 over 50 hands. Over this small sample he has shown a tendency to bet when checked to, and almost always a pot sized bet.


Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

CO: $87.25
BTN: $50.20
SB: $58.90
Hero (BB): $90.75
UTG: $50.35

Pre Flop: Hero is BB with A K
1 fold, CO calls $0.50, 1 fold, SB calls $0.25, Hero raises to $2.50, CO calls $2, 1 fold

Flop: ($5.50) 2 K 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $4, CO calls $4

Turn: ($13.50) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $13.50, Hero calls $13.50

River: ($40.50) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $40.50,

The turn bet was expected with his entire range. The river bet on the other hand surprised me. I don't know if he would continue the bluff/semi-bluff for multiple streets. Should I look him up?

snap call esp given your read. Your hand is sooo under repped. I typically just fire the turn if he raises then its probably a fold. You charge dras by bettin (tho not very nasty board) and Kx is always calling a turn bet. Given stats he doesnt seem too aggro so i dont think he is raising the turn w/ worse so a b/f makes the hand a lot easyer to play. But if you really think he bets worse hands on the turn then i guess the turn check is goot. And like i said your hand is really underrepped and given your read i think you have to call the river.

yes of course you should look him up, maybe even shove depending on how terrible he is.

I would have bet the the turn, or C/R. As played, just dont fold, shoving and calling are both fine.

shooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooove.

We have the nut TP hand and he is bettng mostlikely cos we have induced his bet checking turn and river - as we have noted he's a little bluff happy.

calling and snapping off here is fine as well. Provided that losing a deepish stack here won't tilt you if he lucked into a boat or has us ruined and we have the roll to keep on playing etc thenI shove this all day it's higher variance but it's the kind of hand people remember, so it's useful in that it will get us more action n the future against this guy - and if he's got KQ mayber even KJ you can usually expect a call here as "zomg I has two pairs" is pretty common thnking from bad players on these types of boards ime.

There's a pretty decent chance as well that you both got the AK and are chopping - there's also a slimish chance (very *very* slim) that a shove here will fold his AK if your image is preceived as being nitty enough that he'll talk hmself into thinking you gots a 7 somehow and given your action you ought to show up somtimes with A7s in this spot.

A7s and flopped sets are about the only hands we are beaten by here. Given preflop action we can somewhat discount AA/KK from his range - given the 7 turn we can almost totally rule out quad 7's which leaves us being beaten by 22 A7s - chopping with AK - and stacking KQ KJ maybe even KT.

Basically I view spots like this as a chance to quadruple through from our inital buyin point. If we lose the hand we are back to a 100BB stack whether we call or shove. I'd just snap call here if shoving means I lose some future leverage possibly - say we were 250bb deep and calling the river and losing leaves me a 150bb stack - vs a bad stationy looking villain with a deeep stack then I prefer to call here as I could cooler this guy ina few hands time and then only make 100bb if I shove - lose and then reload. Cos stacksizes are such that if I lose the pot I got a 100bb stack no matter what happens I am much more inclined to shove and try to break this guy here and now.

tbh I think we are most often chopping - but I still love shoving this river.

folding this would be bad.

I guess you have to call the river, though when I call with hands like this against villains with low AFs, it always seems to work out poorly...I think bet/fold turn is prob. best line.

Edit: I think we're a little deepish here to be shoving.

Why induce a bluff on this turn? It's one of the only cards that crushes you.

If you ARE checking to induce the bluff, then you got what you want, and you carved your own coffin if you are behind. Checkcall, Checkcall. Shoving riv is silly if you put him on a bluff.

this kind of misses the point

I think you are way off on his range here. A7s and 22 probably raise the CO if he raises 15% of the time. With 37% VPIP and position, he calls here with a lot more 7s. 57s, 67o is possible, q7s shows up here sometimes, and A7o is definitely possible.

Not really, I just didn't elaborate. I think his calling range to a river shove is pretty much only a weak king. I think he raises preflop with KJ and possibly K10 here, and any pocket pair.

With that in mind, the pot-sized turn and river bets to me are either super strength or super weakness. So I don't think he calls a shove with less then AK here enough times to merit the times he shows up with a 7 or rarely with 22.

I induced the bluff simply because this guy had been floating my c-bets pretty much every time, and whenever I checked he bet pot. So I thought that if I double barrel I probably knock out a ton of hands I beat, whereas if I check he will bet his entire range.

As I look over the hand again I'm not sure checking to induce was such a great play because there's a possible flush draw and a board pair that make things dicey. The board pair limits me somewhat from c/r the turn which would probably be ideal. At the same time if a diamond comes on the river it's going to be a guessing game whether he has it. I put myself in a tough spot.

I didn't even consider shoving at the time, but I like Matrix's explanation. I'll have to think about it some more.

I understand you want to check to induce a bluff in general, I just think the 7 is a bad card to do it on.

I call as I don't see any worse hands calling a shove, maybe, maybe KQ.

there is no way in hell I think that a loose station 3bets 22 or A7s preflop after we opened.

Likewise a 30/15 type who is passive passive passive postflop is hardly likely to be 3betting KJ or KT or any pp worse than jacks after we opened it as well.

I find it hard to see him calling often with A7o on the flop tho it's possible I spose. 57s q7s make zero sense cos he would need to have a fd to chase cos no straight draws are out there on a 2 7 K flop.

67o is possible but even less likely than A7o.


If he's particularly floaty (calls flop CB's almost all the time and has a tendency to pickup pots on scary turns when the villain checks turn to him) then yeah a n other 7 is more likely - so we might get to look foolish shoving te river into his goofy trips - it's about the last move he's going to expect from us tho.

all things being considered I'd guess that he shows up slightly more often here with Kx than he does with 7x - I think that the turn 7 is pretty much a blank.

in a vacuum yes - but consider this.

we want to win as much as we can when we are ahead and we want to confuse our opponents and give them as little information about our cards and the way we play them as we can.

If your roll isn't too hot or losing to 67o will tilt the hell out of you and make you either play badly afterwards or quit te session and lose out on potential earnings, or you just don't like high variance plays then by all means check call down and snap him off and "save" a buyin in the short term.

personally I am shoving here to try to maximise my earn vs his likely overplayed KQ type holdings and also for metagame type stuff where this hand is going to stick in his head and might help us get a future big payoff at some point. Also if he is bluffing and doesn't call he doesn't see our hand and may very well misinterperet what hand we have got and make further mistakes we can exploit if this hand tilts him a little.


to summarise.

folding = bad - calling = good - shoving = better imo.

Matrix-

I'm saying that he doesn't limp with kj, kq, k10, a7s, or 22+ from the cutoff. He raises those hands preflop. Not that he limp 3bets. Of course that doesn't make sense.

Think about his LIMP-call range. The kings in it are almost all suited trash kings. Is he betting pot turn and river with those? IMO he has a monster or he has a bluff. That's why shoving is -EV. Not because I'm scared of tilt or bankroll restrictions. The guy doesn't even have a full BI left after his river bet.

And yes, on such a non-connected flop, I expect a 37/15 to call the c-bet ALL day with a 7. Any 7. Look at people's call continuation bet percentages...if it is anywhere between 60 and 70 then they call in position with midpair on this flop, guaranteed.

This may work both ways, but since a bunch of players have been floated off a few pots by the villain I think this opens up his range to calling raises pre-flop (he might think he can play any junk against the OP).

Since it's more likely Kx than 22/7x I shove just to f*** with the villain. I think Matrix is correct in saying this has metagame effects, since villain likes to make 'plays' at people.

There's no three bet. Villain openlimps CO, Hero raises BB, villain calls.

To me that eliminates any king decent kicker...he openraises CO with those hands, especially 5 handed (that's before hero ever acts). I would love to see hand results if Hero called the river bet. I think villain rarely shows down a king here. Busted diamond draw, maybe. Seven, likely. Air, unlikely.

Fixed post, I thought villain had min-raised pre-flop.

Hand range for villain would be along the lines of KJ/KT/22 occasionally A7/76. I think the villain is mashing the bet pot button with Kx as well as everything that beats us. So I would guess we beat 8 combos of Kx v around 4 to 6 of 22/7x

I think it's tough to get a 15% PFR if you aren't raising kj and probably k10 in the cutoff. When I started playing I was a supernit, I was open raising kj in the cutoff, folding k10, and I was about an 8%-10% PFR.

Also, it's hard to play 37% VPIP and not call with more 7s than a7 and 67.



If those reads are right then the hand combos look really bad.
87 and 67 - 16 combos
a7 - 6 combos
75s and q7s - 4 combos

K8s through k4s - 8 combos
k10 and k9 - 16 combos

So assuming you throw out the 75s and q7s, and keep the k10 and k9 in his non PFR range, you are still looking at 24 good combos and 22 bad combos. I still don't think he mashes pot with a weak king and an aggression factor of 1, but w/e.

I think the river call, as played, is a marginal call when you include busted fd in villain's range (i still fold the river). I mostly dispute the checkcall line on the turn.

you are putting a 37/15 fish on far too rational a range.

They don't raise the top 15% of their hands, they raise whatever 15% they feel like based on their mood, their diet, and the direction of the wind.

So he might limp KJ and raise 84o, it's not about hand strength.

I ended up calling. Results below for those interested.

The big unknown for me was whether he could bet pot on multi-streets when checked to with a weaker hand/missed draw. I only knew for sure that he would for one street and I had been unable to look him up any time prior to this. This pushed me towards a call since I already viewed this as a marginal spot.

Fair enough. I still expect a raise from KJ 2/3 of the time if not more, so I would discount at least half of the hand combos in the KJ-K9 range. I'd also add some more trash hands that include a 7 if he really is behaving eratically.

Does it really change the ultimate analysis?