Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
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SB: $51.80
BB: $50.00
UTG: $53.15
Hero (MP): $50.00
CO: $108.90
BTN: $51.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP with J K
1 fold, Hero raises to $1.75, 1 fold, BTN calls $1.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($4.25) A 6 T (2 players)
Hero bets $3, BTN raises to $9, Hero raises to $25 ready to call ai?

Villain was 18/12/1.8 over 1k hands, no reads. c/r of 2%. WTSD 25%, W$SD 57%

I think we're looking at least a two pair, set, possibly tp with fd?

Would you prefer a flat here or get it in now?

This is kind of a marginal spot because at best we are a flip and at worst we could be dead to Axdd. Maybe someone can stove us against: [A2dd-AQdd, 89dd, 78dd, 97dd, AA, TT, 66, AQ, AT]. Not sure if any Qxdd FD's show up here, I think probably not except possibly Q9dd, and suited connectors that don't have the combo-draw aren't raising us here imo. Considering that 2pair/sets are a larger part of his range than Axdd and we are crushing his combo-draws I'd estimate we're mostly good here to 3b/call. I don't think there is a big difference between shoving vs. 3b/calling because our FE in either case is pretty similar, but maybe a shove is better even as an overbet.

Edit: could someone actually stove that range? I think we're actually probably only around 40% tbh.

i play it the same, obv call a shove.

This is either shove or fold. Flatting sucks as you're OOP and boned if you don't hit on the turn.

I'd skew villains range more toward sets/TP/two-pair-ish hands than bigger FDs, because I think he'd just flat you in position with the NFD.

I probably shove over his flop raise in this instance. You're never ahead if he calls, but we've maximized our fold equity and have a very strong draw.

NFD has a big combo-draw you better believe he is semi-bluffing it. The only time he's flatting it is to trap us with a hand like we have (worse FD) and I think thats a level above this villain.

I actually think we have close to zero FE except maybe against AQ or an AK that tarpped.

Snap call a shove after you make it $25 ldo.

You're flipping against his range, hope you run good.

Although sometimes we can own his soul when he shows up with a worse draw.

^He's not flipping against his range, I'd say villain range is pretty tight ...18/12/1.8 over 1k hands confirms he's weak tight.

Here's my take on his stacking off range:

Board: Ac 6d Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.833% 37.80% 00.03% 11602 9.00 { KdJd }
Hand 1: 62.167% 62.14% 00.03% 19070 9.00 { TT, 66, AQs, ATs, Ad9d, Ad8d, 9d8d, 8d7d, AQo, ATo } (sorry, I forgot the 97dd)

I left AJ out because I bet my balls that what he's gonna fold if hero shoves, and that's pretty much what he needs to fold for a shove to be slightly profitable.

Hero needs to win the hand little more than 40% of the times for a shove to be break even, and he already has 37% equity. I'd say AJ makes up for about 15% of villain's range so we have enough fold equity.

The thing is ... how often is villain raising AJ here instead of flatting?

Eh, I think I'd rather c/c or c/r than lead/3b

Thx this is what I wanted, I think we can add more Axdd, A5dd at the least and maybe A2dd-A4dd too. I don't think AJ shows up here very much. Def add 97dd.

this guy might fold AQ here, AJ as well. His range is pretty wide. I think you play it the way I recommend because you also play AA/66/TT this way as well and you want to get called with those hands as well.

The equity has to be close to 50/50 if he's folding AJ/AQ which I think he probably is.

I think this type of villain is flatting flop with AQ-AJ type hands and doesn't have unsuited lower aces in his range, but does have lower suited aces in his range for a raise, as well as lower draws (78dd, 89dd) + the obvious gin hands, 66 1010 A10

Raising range:
Board: Ac 6d Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.426% 31.39% 00.04% 7769 9.00 { KdJd }
Hand 1: 68.574% 68.54% 00.04% 16963 9.00 { TT, 66, AdQd, AdJd, ATs, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, 9d8d, 8d7d, ATo }

still a good hand to cbet considering your equity vs top pair is 45% on the flop, but its tough facing a raise from a nit. Hmmm...actually maybe this is better to c/rai considering his raising range is super tight and that he will fold most of his range vs a cbet, but might bet at alot of the time if checked to because it is a prime board to steal IP.If you shove you are getting it in pretty bad all the time he calls and I woulnd't over estimate my fold equity here with no real history

Yeah I agree with this range more as his calling range if we 3b. With little FE I think 3b the flop is actually kind of spewy... we are really just bluffing and then pricing ourselves in to call his shove with 35% equity

OOP i think a call is reall bad.
Ship it

Gatesewi: yeah that is what I wanted to say worded better

so, i dont play 50NL but a call here is only bad because you have no fold equity and if the turn is a blank your kinda screwed here right?