50NL: Got the Outs? - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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50NL: Got the Outs?

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02-21-2010 , 08:57 PM

ClimbingV13

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 583

Is this a standard shove spot on the turn? Raised pre b/c villain was limping a lot of pots and wanted a little diversity to my OOP raise range. Thanks

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 2 players - View hand 551539
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): $50.00
BTN/SB: $23.15

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with 8

BTN/SB calls $0.25, Hero raises to $2, BTN/SB calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.00) J

(2 players)
Hero bets $3, BTN/SB raises to $6, Hero calls $3

Turn: ($16.00) A

(2 players)
Hero bets $42 all in, BTN/SB calls $15.15 all in

River: ($46.30) K

(2 players - 2 are all in)

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02-21-2010 , 09:32 PM

skeetm0n

adept

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 1,051

id say you have very little FE here, i dont see this type of villain folding any hand that they would value-min-raise flop with.

sorta sucks but id just check/fold to a shove on the turn.

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02-21-2010 , 09:39 PM

Barewire

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 9,724

Quote:

Originally Posted by skeetm0n

sorta sucks but id just check/fold to a shove on the turn.

not checking stove atm but im pretty sure with this hand we can't c/f therefore shoving is a pretty good option assuming he never shoves worse than 9x when we check.

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02-21-2010 , 11:09 PM

jmil23

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 2,894

its fine rly

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02-21-2010 , 11:25 PM

rbracco

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 4,605

c/f here can't be better than shoving...nh

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02-22-2010 , 01:28 AM

skeetm0n

adept

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 1,051

on the surface i think this hand looks pretty simple, "pair and a draw, dont fold and get real aggro". however in this case i would argue our FE is near zero so we are essentially getting 2 to 1 on a draw that is 3 to 1 at best.

additionally i think there are a lot of hands in villains range that either nullify our draw, like J8, or take away some of our outs, like KJ or TsXs.

i dont hate shoving, but i dont think its as clear cut as it seems.

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02-22-2010 , 01:45 AM

rbracco

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 4,605

Quote:

Originally Posted by skeetm0n

so we are essentially getting 2 to 1 on a draw that is 3 to 1 at best.

Our draw is way better than 3:1 at best. We have up to 20 outs (give or take one in case I double counted and you nits call me out on it) which we only need 1.5:1 on and we have 14-17 outs a ton of the time.

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02-22-2010 , 04:01 AM

paddygo

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 531

nice shove.ace is a good scary card and we have 15 outs for the draw more or less in case we get called which is a 30%.you are shoving like a 30% of the total pot and you also have fold equity on your side which makes this a good shove imo

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02-22-2010 , 12:09 PM

skeetm0n

adept

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 1,051

Q's and 7's = 8 outs
9's = 2 outs
8's = 3 outs

8+2+3 = 13 outs, best case scenario, so 13/42 which makes it ~2.2 to 1 at best... am i missing something?

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02-22-2010 , 12:09 PM

#10

skeetm0n

adept

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 1,051

*face palm*

...we have a flush draw, doh, sorry guys... ya shove looks fine

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