SB is 19/13/2.5 over 1.5K hands he is loose pre-flop. He has an overall 3bet% of 5% and 7% in the SB. He donkbets 23% of the time.

Hero is 15/11/2 over a large sample.

Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

MP2: $29.30
Hero (CO): $51.65
BTN: $47.90
SB: $50.00
BB: $51.00
UTG: $50.75
UTG+1: $19.75
MP1: $86.40

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with 6 8
4 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, 1 fold, SB calls $1.25, 1 fold

Flop: ($3.50) K 2 Q (2 players)
SB bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50

I should probably raise this one up with my FD. What are your thoughts?

Turn: ($8.50) 7 (2 players)
SB bets $6, Hero ??

What about the turn when I hit playing it so passively on the flop. Which range will he double barrel donkbet with? Do i beat a lot of hands here?

River: ($20.50) 4 (2 players)
SB bets $15, Hero ??

Very awkward spot.

call. wp.

Imo raise flop and shove turn. I would hate to see a 4th spade hit here and would love to win a decent pot early with a fairly solid hand.

I don't really like raising flop since we can't handle a 3bet. The hand was played well in my opinion.

I think his leading range is something like weak Kings and flush draws, so I would bluff-raise this flop every time.

What does he usually do after donking? Any showdown hands in that sample?

Raise flop (donk bets are not impressive to me especially in bvb).

As played, raise turn (you really, really don't want to see a 4th spade here, and your hand is underrepped since you just called flop. plus it's a great card to bluff at, so he could put you on air or the As or something.)

As played, call river and feel very sheepish when he shows KQ. (I actually think raise/fold would be the best option but you're not deep enough to do that. I'm not sure if you get called with worse often enough to jam, but you might from hands like the aforementioned KQ, 22, even AK with As. Obviously never fold.)

We have to raise the river right? He's obviously trying to get value from KQ or rarely 22.

He could be donking with a low flush draw that has no showdown value OTF too I guess, but this is really risky from his point of view because he's getting called so often and he's OOP, so I would expect him to c/r these hands more often than leading out at least.

I think he's putting more money than he should into the pot with KQ and 22 because of how passively you played the hand. But he'd have to call light with those for a raise to be profitable and stack sizes are awkward so I'd probably call instead

Eh. I think a flat on the flop is fine. I'm not sure what his intentions are, but I don't think he's going to fold on this particular board when making this bet. And if you flat - and flat quick enough (not just time bank / flat), you should get a check /fold on the turn if he is FOS anyway.

Turn and river are both calls. The river call is a cry call, but you can't assume he just has a flush here. JTo is very much in his range thinking he can take you off a stubborn Q or K. And by flatting the turn, you did play the hand sort of non-conventiionally.

Barry

the only worse flush he can have is 45s and that's a huge stretch from a tag in the blinds.

Yeah I don't think he has that hand, I'm just considering if raising (read: shoving) is more profitable or not because he's gonna basically have either like a J high flush or KQ/22. I think he has KQ/22 more often than a flush but that's just my opinion

Given how the action in the hand proceeded, aside from KQ and 22 being sort of deducted (wouldn't that be a c/r or something on this board?), there is also the matter that those hands would probably slow down and: 1. bluff catch JTo; 2. pot control against made flushes. So just call here. There are a fair number flushes on this board that hit villain's range with non As, Ks, Js on the board.

I think he's gonna c/r 22 some, not too sure about KQ. It's a semi drawy flop with broadways so I think he's expecting us to call a lot when he donks.

b/f turn seems pretty standard with both of those hands too no?

I don't think there's a lot of disagreement on the river, but I really don't understand the logic of not raising turn. There's no reason to think he has a better flush on the turn and a 4th spade definitely either counterfeits our hand or ensures we don't make any more $. Steal vs. blind is always kind of an aggro dynamic, so I don't think playing the flush straight-forwardly defines our hand too much. Couldn't you raise here with something like AsJx that had floated the flop donk bet?

I think the logic is that given how villain played the hand (flat pf, donk lead flop / turn), his range of non-flush hands he can get value from do not reach the point whereas his flush hands that crush him and get it in makes the play profitable. It's not a bad line of thinking.

Barry

I think you're all seeing monsters on the bed. Flush v. flush hu on the turn just doesn't happen that often. KQ, AK, 22, AQ, etc. all are more likely. By just calling, we have to dodge 8 spades on the river, as well as 2 Ks, 3 Qs and 3 7s. That's 16/46 cards. And that's assuming an A or a J don't slow him down either (6 more cards, potentially). I don't like it.

by just calling we're underrepping our hand and inducing bets from worse on the river and not telling our opponent "hi i made a flush and would like value now".

indeed, plus that he might fold, or boatmine/fold

The call is still profitable even if you assume that all of those cards would lead to another bet and we would have to fold (which is a gross asumption).

I don't think this is just a "monsters under the bed" argument. Nobody is arguing to fold the river. It's just that the value of shoving (i.e., when he calls given his range) doesn't seem to supersede with the value of taking a more passive line here.

The other question is why is villain firing again on the turn. Don't you think that given hero's flat he is going to slow down with some of his range? alright, maybe not 22 or KQ. But QA? KJ? Something is off here a bit more than usual.

Barry

@Barry - I'm not saying we should shove the river, I'm saying we should raise the turn. And I'm not saying a call isn't profitable, I'm saying a raise is more profitable. And I would expect villain to slow down with some of his range but also to double barrel on what should be a scare card for us a lot as well.

@vanilla - if he boatmine/folds then we don't lose anything by raising turn vs. calling a bet on the river. We can gain if he still calls river though.

@jessy - we're overunderrepping our hand, if you see what I mean. Our hand's too strong in this situation to really need to underrep it. There's no greater value from inducing river bets than getting him to call turn with worse. And there are a lot of rivers that we can't call a bet on, so we don't necessarily want to induce.

there's great value in getting him to not fold when we raise and disguise our hand imo since he'll always bet a blank river and we can raise or call. if a heart comes, well thems the breaks but he's probably going to check because he won't have one often and we have one a ton.

Jesus christ. Call flop, call turn, call river. Well played. Anything else, especially raising flop, is not ideal here.

There's arguements for both raising and flatting I guess, I think the hand was played perfectly though, even though I definitely hear you.

He 3bets 7% of out SB and he Donkbets 23% ( I assume mostly OTF), I am interested in his c/r flop and his overall blind defence numbers.

Unless there is a very fishey player on the BTN and/or in the BB - it looks like from the CO that 68s is a marginally profitable open at best.

For this reason:
If we are unable to raise as a semi-bluff with the top of our range of flops, in this case FDs, I think someone who 3bets alot PF and Donkbets are large amounts of flops - then our capacity to realise our equity with 8 high is very proscribed.

44+,A2s+,K2s+,Q4s+,J6s+,T6s+,96s+,86s+,76s,A2o+,K6o+,Q8o+,J8o+,T8o+,98o - 45.2%

Using Pokerstoves hand rankings - 86s does not appear until 45 percentile. Now it might be that we would have 86s higher in our estimation because we would never open some of the other less connected or non suited holdings.
But if we have a higher than average expectation of seeing a flop and a less than average chance of utilising aggression without a very fishey player to increase our implied odds - then I would argue that it gets much much closer to a fold.

One of my reasons for using that Pokerstove number - is to illustrate that you can still have a CO blind steal range of 25% without having 86s
e.g.
22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,87s,76s,ATo+,KTo+ ,QTo+,JTo

Of course you do not have fixed steal range and should tighten your range if you have difficult players to your left. It might be that from CO 20% is as wide as you can open.

Specific reasons as to why 86s might not be profitable if you cannot win without showdown when flopping a FDs vs this type of villian.

7% of the time you will face a 3bet from the SB.
There is a non 0 chance of a 3bet from BTN or BB. Say 2-3% where they only 3bet AA,KK.

When you see a flop - you will flop no pair no draw more than 50% of the time.
When you do flop a pair most of the time it will be a pair that you will not be able to value bet.

Thus the only times you can realise good value is when you flop draws. Most of your draws you will have 25% to 35% equity. Having that draw will not get you to 50% equity vs most ranges - thus for it to be profitable you need to be able to win without showdown or have FE a good portion of time or have implied odds. Given one gappers flop 8 out draws alot less than connectors and not all of your str8 draws will be nut draws and almost all your FD are not nut draws - then you require pretty fishey players to get the implied odds required to offset all the other disadvantages.

So I would suggest a number of prerequisites need to be present.

- A reasonable expectation of getting folds PF.
- A very small chance of getting 3bet from BTN or Blinds.
- The presence of one fishey player.
- If not fishey - then we need really straightforward fit or fold villians.

The BTN might be fishey enough but even his presence is discounted because we are OOP vs him and thus even vs him our capacity to semi-bluff or value bet is lessened.

(cont'd)

SB Range Strength

You will find in general that the SB range strength for regulars is one position where is range is strongest.

In this example - we have not been provided with his exact SB range and its distribution but for the sake of the argument.

Lets assume that Fold SB to steal is 75%
7% he 3bets
18% he calls

If his 3bet range is 2/3rds value 1/3 bluff his 3bet range will be something like this

Value 4.7% of hands TT+,AQs+,AQo+
Bluff 2.3% of hands A9s-A6s,K9s-K6s ( it might be different just for illustration purposes)

Thus his flat calling range will be

99-22,AJs-ATs,A5s-A2s,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,97s+,87s,76s,AJo-ATo,KTo+,QTo+,JTo

(cont'd)

KQ2

99-22,AJs-ATs,A5s-A2s,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,97s+,87s,76s,AJo-ATo,KTo+,QTo+,JTo


On the assumption that this range is correct.

Hand strength distribution
Total Hand combinations = 216

Monster hand combinations = 22 combos
9 KQ
3 Sets
10 Monster draws

Top pair (no draw)
39 combos
2nd Pair
36 combos

Flush draws
5 combos - 4 nut non combo - 1 weak
OESD
15 combos
Gutshots
36 combo

Underpairs
36 combos
Ace high no draw
12 combos
No Showdown air
15 combos

If we were to take a % distribution by hand strength

Nut = Strong draws(10) + 2pr+(12) + Nut FD(4) = 26/216 = 12%
Strong = TP (39) = 39 = 39/216 = 18%

30% strong or better

Medium made = 2nd pair (36) = 16.5%
Medium draws = OESD (15) + Weak FD (1) = 16 = 7%

23% medium ( although arguable whether or not 99-77 should be included)

Weak made = Underpairs (36) = 16.5%
Weak draws = GS (36) = 16.5%
Air = 27 combos = 12.5%

45.5%


Depending upon what his c/r range is...........which might be distributed differently on a wet board of KQ2 Flushing than on other boards.
And might weight him towards are value only donkbetting strategy on this board.

With an unknown c/r stat and a 23% donkbet (assumed flop) - Which we should assume highly overlaps his blind defense range given he is TAG so is unlikely to be limp-calling PF.

Then we can see that with 30% being nut or strong range and 23% donkbet stat..........It is highly likely that when he donks - he is bet/calling or bet/3betting and not bet/folding.