Villain: 16/16 over 245, 45% ATS, 92% cbet.


Full Tilt Poker $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

MP2: $51.20
CO: $58.15
BTN: $65.60
SB: $50.00
Hero (BB): $113.90
UTG: $50.45
UTG+1: $18.75
UTG+2: $50.00
MP1: $50.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with J J
6 folds, BTN raises to $1.50, SB calls $1.25, Hero calls $1

Flop: ($4.50) 8 J A (3 players)
SB checks, Hero ???


I think I like betting this flop here. See, he has a 92% cbet, but i don't give a **** about the times when he cbets and shuts down with like 9s7s. I care about maximizing value when he caught some of this flop. If I c/r, it drives most of his range away. If I c/c here, he's seeing a very cheap turn card with great future implied odds, with a wide (easily drawing) range of hands. I don't like it. If I elect to bet, he calls a ton giving me initiative, and I can see villains saying "aw FFUU donkbet I raise" with a wide range say FD's, SD's, AK, AQ, AJ, 88, J8, A8, and then air. And when he raises witht these hands and I flat him (cause I'll never shove over imo), he bets the turn extremely frequently.

Thoughts.

At my level (the microest of micro stakes) donk betting here = win. Really interested to see where this goes for 50NL.

Donk bet it. If he folds he was cbetting and shutting down anyway. Might as well donk and hopefully keep the both of them interested while building a pot.

check, obviously. what good are stats if you don't use them?

1) Why did you just call pf? I'm not at NL50 level yet but it looks like 100% re-raise.
2) Just check flop it would be in most of the time EV+, re-raise, all-in would not be a mistake after his bet on flop.

Its not bad to raise this flop vs. this villain. I vary what I do. Both I think are fine.

i see what ur saying but if we chk and btn cbs then sb may well still do something or at least come along so we get that extra bet. If we donk then btn will fold his air so we lose that cb, also there are also a reasonable amount of hands btn will continue with to a cr on this board. He might also look down at AK, put you on a draw and ship, some bad tags stack off with tptk no matter what.