Oponent stats 34/22/1.3 3bet 5%, was it worth reraising him, with what worse hand he could call? And what now, tough fold?


Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (SB): $97.75
BB: $117.30
UTG: $47.65
CO: $49.25
BTN: $10.80

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with J 9
3 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, BB calls $1

Flop: ($3.00) 4 K 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, BB checks

Turn: ($3.00) T (2 players)
Hero bets $2, BB calls $2

River: ($7.00) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $4.50, BB requests TIME, BB raises to $15, Hero raises to $40.50, BB raises to $113.80 all in, Hero ?

You've basically got the nuts here. The only hand that beats you is AJ. What worse could he call you with? Sets or an aggressively played 2 pair hand. Less likely a busted flush or lower straight draw turned into a bluff?

I think I would call this pretty easily.

This looks like a disgusting cooler, but I'm def calling his river shove.

If you are not going to call this then don't make the re-raise.

+1

rly?

villains range for calling the river 3bet is not the same as villains range for 4bet shoving

yeah i have to agree with this 100%.

anyways this is a horrible horrible spot

it seems like villain is going to show a straight always here. it's some crappy little nothing pot and then all of a sudden on the river multiple buyins are getting shoved in out of nowhere.

if he had a set i think he'd just flat the 3bet on end, plus no sets make sense. i would assume this is a bluff never ever, unless i had a specific read on villain that made me think he can spaz out very badly.

tbh tho in the heat of battle i could never the 2nd nuts here getting 3:1

He will never shove here without AJ.

What do you postulate is villains range for 4bet shoving here? And how much narrower is it than his 3bet calling range?

I'm calling here with the second nuts. We've made a pot committing 3bet on the river, and folding here is a huge mathematical mistake. If you weren't prepared to go AI, you shouldn't have made the 3bet. I feel pretty sick when a AF 1.3 unl shoves on us like this, but I can see him doing this with worse hands than ours(something like a slowplayed 77 perhaps?).

I would say his range for 4bet shoving is: {AJs,AJo,J9o}

I left out J9s since sometimes he may decide to not ship it.

I would say his range for calling a 3bet can include 2pairs and sets. It's unlikely he slowplayed a set but it's possible. He may have rivered QT and get stubborn with it. I would also advocate a little smaller 3bet than OP made to induce looser calls from 2pair hands.

Obviously that doesn't amount to a lot of extra stuff, but we're working with super narrow ranges in this spot with this river action.

I would expect the river 3bet to result in him folding fairly often here incidentally.

why not cbet here? perfect spot imo

+1

OMG
Sorry for this cooler.
There are some villains that Spazzout but this doesn't seem like the spot where they would do it ...
I'm pretty not sure how thin the value 3-bet on the river is ...
Maybe minraise 3-bet? ;/

He is never bluffing, and almost never turning weaker hands into bluffs or "value" raising/shoving ..

sicko spoto

Not much you can to unfortunate he had AJ..

ARR IN MIRITE?

lolol o course

he's going to have the nuts like every single time

then we should fold when I did the math right.

Loose XBB 100% of the time
vs
Win 0BB 0% of the time.


(Well, isn't the 0 standing for infinity so we win infinity bb in an infinity % of the time ... bam!)
I'm an Idiot

This is not a cooler.
Your river 3bet is good, he will call that with bad played sets, 2 pairs, god knows TPTK but he will never push 200bbs without the nuts. Now fold.

This isn't necessarily true, it's pretty close but we could come up with a range of hands that villain calls/raises with when we 3bet and we'd be ahead, but when we shove we're way behind.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 67.391% 47.83% 19.57% 11 4.50 { Js9s }
Hand 1: 32.609% 13.04% 19.57% 3 4.50 { AJs, KQs, QTs, J9s, QTo, J9o }

We're way ahead of this range (removed KQ/AJ combo because he's not always checking flop (KQ) or calling turn (AJ)) but when he shoves we'll have to come up with a different range where folding might be best.

Tbh the 3bet/fold looks like its the most ev line, but I probably couldn't fold this tho..