Villain is a reg, running 22/20 over 40ish hands but no other reads/history. Hero just sat down, image should be reasonably clean.

Pretty sure this is fine given how the board ran out but wanted a line check, comments on all streets appreciated.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Poker Stars
SB ($19.50)
Hero ($52.70)
UTG ($127)
CO ($53.75)
BTN ($94)

Dealt to Hero Q K

fold, CO raises to $1.50, fold, fold, Hero calls $1

FLOP ($3.25) A 2 J

Hero checks, CO bets $2, Hero raises to $6.25, CO calls $4.25

TURN ($15.75) A 2 J 7

Hero bets $11.50, CO calls $11.50

RIVER ($38.75) A 2 J 7 8

Hero bets $33.45 (AI)

ott: sets, flushes, AJ still calling, you're folding any other A (and I don't think he's calling the flop c/r with too many of them or anything else worse)
otr: AJ folding sometimes, sets rarely folding, doesn't look worth it

c/f the turn, dunno if I would actually do it at the table, I'd probably fire the turn and give up on the river

id like it better with KcQx/KxQc.

if you fire turn i think firing river is pretty mandatory.

i think its a just a matter of fact if villain can think you can vbet AJ/22 here.

meh i think i like c/c flop better

Flop c/r is sexy, and then I think it's a pretty clear barrel off spot on turn/river.

yeah well played the only thing imo u would afraid here is if he has the flush if he doesnt his range is pretty weak cause he would shove it otf

What, really? i couldn't disagree more. imo at least, if Villain posted this hand here from his perspective with a bluffcatching, TPGK type of hand, you'd see a TON of people saying that "if you call the turn bet you have to call the river too, because it's such a brick." A lot of regs just aren't folding much at all after they call the turn, and against those people it's obviously best to just give up.

Now, we can't be sure if Villain thinks that way, but I'd personally need a better spot for attempting a huge bluff against an unknown villain.

i like the idea of c/c'ing the flop though.

ime, when i c/r wet flop and barrrel turn and get called then barrel river i get a lot of folds, and only get called my the nuts

flop play is terrible

extremely narrow value c/r range, nearly no backdoor equity

Really?

I mean, we obv rep very narrow, but most regs are auto-folding AT and everything worse to this c/r IMO (except for FD's). And we have a gutshot, which is worth 10%.

And if he's re-raising sets and KQcc OTF, his turn range is AJ A2s AK AQ and maybe 10 flushes, so if he's folding A2s/AK/AQ, that's more than 50% of his range, so turn barrel is +EV also.

River should be a c/f then.

Is this so overoptimistic?

the only hand you're realistically repping on the flop is AJ.

22 shouldn't really be always defending pre so discount a few combos. AA/AK/JJ 3bet pre. and even if you flat AA/AK/JJ/AJ pre, why on earth would you raise flop if AT snapfolds.

sets shouldn't 3bet flop unless OP is x/r/j flushdraws, but what villain should or shouldn't do is not necessarily what he does.

AK/AQ with a club aren't folding turn, nor should A2.

should at least have Kc/Qc to raise flop and even then it's not great for your range unless you are x/r merged value hands like AK/AQ AND villain knows this.

you more credibly rep a wider range by x/cing flop and you're not going to get barreled on an Ace high flop that often because you look like Ax.

Ugh yeah this is true and it makes quite a big difference.

Still I think people are folding too much to flop c/r on these boards, and KQ is a decent enough hand to do it with (arguably best non-FD hand in our PF range to bluff with).

Whatever, it just depends on what you think he'll do with the weaker part of his one pair range OTF. I expect him to go "crap, he's repping very little, but I don't want to play a big pot with one crappy pair when a lot of scary cards can come off" most of the time.

Good flop to c/r, bad cards.
What about calling flop and then check/raising turn?

Much prefer you had one club in your hand.

He could easily 3bet your raise with sets + 2 pair. He flats with AKc/AQc, include turn. You push all but a flush to fold on the river IMO. Set probably folds or 3bets your x/R

Good play

LISTEN TO SHARKBAIT FOR THE TRUTH COMES FROM HIM!

like really. you rep nothing. i wouldn't even play monsters like JJ or AJ like this. i might do it with AA because he's not very likely to have Ax, so i want him to think that i blahblahblah, the same reason you just got called down is the reason i would contemplate this line with AA.

I want a club in my hand to even contemplate barreling this off.

is establishing a polarised range in this spot not good? or is this a spot that we should attempt much more against [X] confirmed regs?

Thanks for the replies so far. Agreed I'm not repping much on flop, I wasn't keen on flatting OOP so decided to c/r, probably should be a c/c though for reasons stated.

What's our plan on later streets if we c/c flop? c/r T/club turn and c/f other turns, donk river if he checks back turn?