BB - KK+ AKs maybe
UTG 10s+ AKs - I doubt he has AAs - lean towards QQs-10s AKs.

That means UTG is basicly making a huge mistake by calling this 3b?

I'd say that UTG has put himself into a set-mining mode and can't be relied upon to contribute money unless he's crushing us

I was just thinking about whether or not UTG with 1010-qq is a mistake to call 3-bet...I think it's very close, and if I were him I would be inclined to enter set-mining mode.

Bear in mind how many spots will BB have to 3-bet an UTG range in 400 hand sample??
I just used my usual guidelines for 50NLers - they tend to have very nitty 3-betting standards outside of BTN and CO or BVB until shown otherwise.

And I think that's a very good assumption to make in this situation, I would maybe even take AKs out of his range and have it be just AA-KK

The ranges are confounding me a bit. What do y'all think of this weighted range for each of them:

AA -100%
KK - 100%
QQ - 50%
AKs - 50%
AK - 25%
JJ - 25%

That should actually be about right for BB, given his 2% 3b. UTG is more unwieldy for me. I want to say his range is mostly AA and KK, but he's making a large-multiway pot when he had to option to 4bet. He's putting himself in a pickle with AA. Maybe something more like this is better for UTG:

AA 25%
KK 100%
QQ 100%
JJ 100%
TT 50%
99 25%
AKs 50%


Thoughts?

He can't setmine there profitable with TT. Even if BB always stacks of with TP or better and assuming he has a range from KK+/AKs and always Cbets every flop...

I dont mind your UTG range.
My ~ a million hand experience at 50NL suggests otherwise for BB Kurt....but I am suprised every now and then on bad spots to 3-bet....by villians.

I don't follow why he can't set-mine profitably in this spot. His call is also inducing Diggers lower PP to enter the pot, giving him even greater equity (and the potential to stack Digger in really small set-over-set situations)

Would you fold 1010 in this spot then? and if so what differentiates 1010 from JJ in this spot?

If UTG is as strong as digger says he his, he has KK/QQ here 80% of the times and he's going to stack off passively with an overpair.

I used stoxEV to solve that. Still EV- for UTG if he flats with TT/JJ/QQ pure to setmine (ev = -1$/hand)

To be more precise
UTG - raise TT 2$
BTN - calls 88
BB - reraise KK+/AKs 6$
UTG - calls
BTN- calls

Flop (pot = 18,25)
BB - bet 14 every hand/flop
UTG - raises AI with at least set, fold everything else
BTN - idem
BB - always calls with at least TP or NFD.

This scenario gave a EV from -1.13$ for the UTG.
It also gave a negative EV for hero on BTN (-1.96), so if UTG is making a mistake by flatting TT-QQ pure to setmine, than hero doesn't have enough odds to setmine too.

I've done a lot of EV calculations with stoxEV in setmining spots. I found that the value in setmining is grossly overrated and many times not profitable as I always figured it to be.

However, in this situation I think UTG is gonna stackoff with an overpair most of the times and that's what makes it profitable here.

final edit: also note the scenario I calculated is in big favor for the UTG and it is still EV-. BB isn't gonna bet every flop and he in't always stacking off with TP or better or the NFD, so in reality UTG is losing way more if he's setmining here with TT-QQ.

Based on my weighted ranges, I made a matrix of how often we are facing each combo from each villain.



Obviously we're folding any flop without an 8. So, out of flops with an 8, we are set-under-set this % of the time if each of the following cards is also on the flop:

A 35.3%
K 43.3%
Q 37.9%
J 33.3%
T 14.3%
N 7.2%

I haven't gotten as far as calculating how often a flop has an 8 and one of these cards given the weighted ranges. Anyone want to figure out how often a flop has an 8 and no A,K,Q? An 8 and no A,K,Q,J?

TY so much, I've got to learn how to do STOXev, because this is a scenario that I was very hesitant to suggest Digger called with, but I didn't have strong enough mathematical reasoning to suggest folding.

I'm pretty sure I would rarely take this line. I would be much more inclined to represent a hand that was reluctantly calling him down.

assume 100 trials:

so 87.5% of the time we lose $4 = -$350

9.5% of the time we win a minimum of $14 = +$133

3% of the time we lose $48 = -$144

our net expectation is -$361. To get back to break even, we need to make $38 postflop on average each time we hit a set. If BB has $44 behind, ignoring the possibility that UTG puts more money in, we need to stack BB most of the time--like almost 85% of the time.

But UTG WILL put more money in a lot of the time; but, imo, those occasions will be the ones where it will be harder to stack BB.

The villains have a combined $88 or so between them, and we need to average $38 per hand. This makes it seem a bit easier. This is close. Any way you cut it, there is not a lot of profit in this situation if you are purely set mining.

__________________

Suppose, however, that we can count on our position to win us the hand one time in twenty we don't improve.

That means we lose $4 unimproved 83.1% of the time = -$332.5

and we win $12 unimproved .05% of the time = +$60

So our net loss unimproved is now -$272

Our total losses (unimproved losses + getting stacked set over set 3 times) = $272 and $144 or -$416.

We win a minimum of $133 when we flop a set and are not set over setted, so now our net loss before postflop winnings with sets is -$416 + $133 = -$283.

This means that we need to make $20 per hand with our sets. This is much more reasonable (so much so that somebody should double check my lawyer math and see if I double counted our unimproved winnings or something).

________________


So the question becomes: how reasonable is it to expect to win unimproved one in 20 times?

Basically, that means that BB has to have AK or AQ and EP raiser has to have a low PP or AK or AQ, and they need to both miss the flop. Can somebody figure this out? I think the low pockets are definitely in EP's raising/flatting the 3 bet range, as he seems solid enough to raise them preflop and call the 3 bet, realizing he is going to drag us along a lot of the time.

My bottom line on this hand is that it's a pretty good call IF we assume that we can win some post flop unimproved, and it is a very marginal call if we assume we are just purely set mining. But i think it's a call either way.

I love this thread!

ChrisW: We lose too much when we're all in.
Kurt: Can we fold a set sometime to reduce RIO?
mpethy: Can we take the pot unimproved sometimes to increase EV?

Awesome.

Only when UTG is calling to setmine himself (which would be a mistake from him).

I still think UTG is gonna stack off passively with an overpair and his range is KK/QQ most of the times and I would give lighter weight to AA/JJ/AKs.

That makes setmining with 88 profitable here, imo, because UTG is gonna put in more money postflop if he flops an overpair.

if UTG is basically playing fit or fold on the flop with T's and J's why wouldnt he call the raise with 2's-9's?

In answer to your self-described question--I would not be looking to save money when I was set over setted. In an infinite number of trials, i would expect that if i were in the mode that i was trying to fold when i was set over setted, i would make some mistakes and fold my set to a shove from AA/KK/QQ, and TPTK more often than i would be correctly folding to a bigger set. These mistakes would kill my profit on my set hands, which is where I need to be making all my money.

There would be rare exceptions. Say the flop comes down 8AQ and the BB bets and UTG shoves. I could conceivably think about folding here. or if they check to me, I bet, BB shoves and UTG calls, I would probably be able to fold.

But by and large I would not be expecting to save money on losses where I am set over setted.

amazing thread, thanks to everyone who's teaching me all this information.

I love how many ways we have to look at this situation

I'm not sure what you are saying here, but if I understand you correctly, I think I disagree.

UTG is a 15/12/whatever. His UTG raising range is roughly the top 7.5% hands, which works out to being KQs+ and 55+, more or less. When he flats the 3 bet, we put him on the bottom of his range. We exclude AA and KK almost entirely (because he knows calling will induce a call from us most of the time). So his flatting range is AK sometimes, 55-QQ, maybe he folds KQs, AQ, AQs.

I also do not think that his stats lead us to believe that he will passively stack off with QQ on a jack high board, or whatever.

It seems clear to me that UTG is more or less set mining, too, although I think he would flat with the top of his calling range expecting to win some hands that check to him--he has JJ, T high flop, BB check, I think UTG bets and expects to take it down most of the time. So he is not purey set mining--he is, in fact, doing about what we are doing if we call, with a bit more expectation of winning post flop unimproved.

Yeah sorry Mphethy and others for me being unclear. I'm not a good English speaker.

In post #36 I calculate a scenario with StoxEV to show that if UTG calls pure to setmine, he's making a (big) mistake (which Springsteen suggested he could be doing). I explain in detail why, which scenario/hands/ranges/conditions I used when putting the data in StoxEV and which results this gave.

This is why I think UTG can't be setmining, if he is good as Digger say he is. That leaves me to think that UTG is putting BB on a supertight range, but he can't fold KK/QQ here.

I didn't save the StoxEV file, but I can do it again and than upload it somewhere, so you or someone else can check it. I'm never 100% sure if I did everything right.

OK, i think i understand what you are saying here.

I don't think UTG calls purely to set mine,as I outlined above. I think his range here is pretty wide. I think the most he tightens up to is flatting with AK and TT+, but, truthfully, I think he calls with a lot of his setmining hands, too.

So UTG is assigning a wider range to BB than most people here and/or is overestimating his odds to setmine?

What would a good 2+2'er like you do with QQ here if you're UTG and if you flat what is your plan on the flop?

FWIW, I'm folding QQ here if I'm UTG.

Wow this thread got huge since this morning. Good stuff

GRUNCH

I think this is a good spot. UTG is probably raising many hands that will flop undersets if you both hit and BBs range here is ******edly narrow.

edit: also spr is going to be low and bb is never folding an OP