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50NL - AQo top 2 against decent player 50NL - AQo top 2 against decent player

04-01-2008 , 07:59 AM
Villain is 26/15/2.3 over 40 hands. I'm also running pretty tagish, haven't been at this table for long and have just taken pots down with stealing/cbets.

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

MP: $74.50
CO: $50.50
Hero (BTN): $54.45
SB: $51.75
BB: $50.75
UTG: $74.00

Pre Flop: Hero is BTN with A Q
3 folds, Hero raises to $1.75, SB calls $1.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($4.00) J A Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3.25, SB calls $3.25

Turn: ($10.50) 6 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $7.50, SB raises to $15, Hero ???

Since his stats are somewhat decent I highly doubt he doesn't 3bet AA, QQ, JJ or AK pre-flop. So the only reasonable hands I see here are 66, AJs/o or KT.
I'm obviously behind that range but I think I'm getting odds to fill up if I just call. Or am I being too nitty with his range here? If I throw in QJs/o I'm still behind here but only 45/55, so pretty much a coinflip.
50NL - AQo top 2 against decent player Quote
04-01-2008 , 08:11 AM
Preflop/flop: Std.
Turn: The min CR looks really strong here. However there are still many hands he can have where you have good equity against overall. I put him on a hand such that has 2spades here often. So I think call is best option.
River: any non-spade, K or T and Im calling a bet by him.
50NL - AQo top 2 against decent player Quote
04-01-2008 , 08:40 AM
..
50NL - AQo top 2 against decent player Quote
04-01-2008 , 08:42 AM
You're only behind to 66 and KT here, although i think 66 is unlikely. Maybe JJ.

Like you say you're ahead of AJs/o and Qs/o. Aswell as AK. I havent got pokerstrove atm, but i think you have more than enough equity in this pot to make the call.

Call this and call if a blank hits river.
50NL - AQo top 2 against decent player Quote
04-01-2008 , 09:06 AM
So definitely not a push here?

I'm guessing?
Call>>>>>>>>>>Push>Fold
50NL - AQo top 2 against decent player Quote
04-01-2008 , 09:22 AM
I think KT needs to be discounted as he is likely to fold it most of the time preflop. Looks like he's going to be a bit loose PF and probably can't tell anything yet about positional awareness but I expect this is QJ/AJ/AQ a lot more than KT.

Edit: If he has any of those hands I think all the money is going in so a push isn't bad (~$30 behind on river with a $40 pot). I might call turn and if villain doesn't get it in on river I do.
50NL - AQo top 2 against decent player Quote
04-01-2008 , 09:31 AM
I think any sets are out of his range here. he'd have to be pretty bad IMO to either A. float that flop oop with 66 even though it SMACKS your PFR range hard or B. call in the SB with JJ, QQ, or AA. I think since villain is an unknown KT is DEFINITELY in his range. so basically I expect to see weaker two pairs and straights here. So i think calling is the best option in an attempt to get to a showdown on a safe river.
50NL - AQo top 2 against decent player Quote
04-01-2008 , 09:36 AM
if hes as good as you think he is then hes got no sets, all sets 3bet preflop and he wouldnt call you c-bet with 66's OOP on that board.

more likely hes got aj , jq or a random SD hand with a k or 10 in it which then picked up a FD.

shove on the turn
50NL - AQo top 2 against decent player Quote
04-01-2008 , 01:08 PM
No chance of a 66 because of the flop play. Unlikely that he's playing AA,QQ, KK. I think it's a toss up between QJ, KT, AJ, AQ and an unlikely AK. or an even less likely T9spades. You're definately ahead of his range here. I'd call an reevaluate on turn. Calling if a ten or king doesn't drop.
50NL - AQo top 2 against decent player Quote
04-01-2008 , 01:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sinderg
if hes as good as you think he is then hes got no sets, all sets 3bet preflop and he wouldnt call you c-bet with 66's OOP on that board.

more likely hes got aj , jq or a random SD hand with a k or 10 in it which then picked up a FD.

shove on the turn
+1
50NL - AQo top 2 against decent player Quote
04-01-2008 , 01:53 PM
without any sort of killer reads, i'm calling the crappy bet here and check/calling a blank river. you're representing a good ace, possibly an ak-type hand, and there's enough draws on the board from which you can extract some value. i think a fold is weak on an epic level here, and i think a draw definitely could play like this. still, a shove is utter spew, since he's not calling with anything you beat and you've got a strong hand. so, call and c/c a decent river.
50NL - AQo top 2 against decent player Quote
04-01-2008 , 03:42 PM
Shove seems fine. Hard to put villain on a hand you beat, and every K or T scares the hell out off AJ/QJ. Sets are, as sindberg said, not a very reasonable part of his range.
50NL - AQo top 2 against decent player Quote
04-01-2008 , 03:51 PM
i do not want a tough decision on the river. just push - you are killing his range
50NL - AQo top 2 against decent player Quote

      
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