hey guys,

I'm playing 50nl regularly now and know i have to improve my math alot and start calculating ev much better; than apply it to every situation including bluffs which i'm inexperienced,

so is the math behind this bluff correct?

CO: $60.75 (121.5 bb)
BTN: $152.85 (305.7 bb)
SB: $50.60 (101.2 bb)
BB: $67.05 (134.1 bb)
Hero (UTG): $82.40 (164.8 bb)
MP: $41.55 (83.1 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K A
Hero raises to $1.50, MP folds, CO calls $1.50, 2 folds, BB calls $1

Flop: ($4.75) 3 T Q (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.50, CO calls $2.50, BB folds

Turn: ($9.75) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $6, CO raises to $14.50, Hero calls $8.50


so villain is laying me 3.5:1 OTT, with my read i feel like i have 11 outs i can bluff jam river with 11 and 2 outs for nutz J J, so a total of 13 outs.

(rule of 4 and 2)
13 x 2 + 2 = 28% and getting 3.5:1 so if i think my river bluff will be successful a high % of the time it will make my line +ev right?

I failed to factor in the times i hit the nuts and the times i get called even thought the flush hits ( i really dont know how to factor these in); i am hoping someone could explain that bit in some form of math please?

River: ($38.75) A

feels like im missing alot in my calc not sure help appreciated

you have no reason to bluff the river you just hit. Your hand also looks like a fd so check and hope he thinks you hit and take the showdown value you have. Its not like hes going to bluff shove now. Only reason to shove here is if you think your beat and can rep the flush and bet him off.

maybe i should of been more specific but my question is more directed at planning a bluff and using math to calculate the ev

this is why i am calling to shove rivers

villain checks back river on diamond and i think he has one pair beat given his turn raise

Blow $30 on deuces cracked or take the weeks free trial. Theres a series on there called the mathamatics of poker 5 episodes i think. Its going to explain things in far greater detail for you than anyone can in a post.

It made my head explode though gl and enjoy.

ill check it out but im sure there are some veterans on here who can give some insightful answers

If the people who understand what your on about look in the micros Also depends if the'll spend an hour typing out an indepth responce.

correct me if im wrong but river pot is $36 villian has $42 behind your bluff needs to work 77% of the time ?

You need to start by assigning villain range. Then figure out your ev when you hit a made hand vs that range, then figure out your ev when a bluff card falls vs that range, then figure out your ev when your hit neither, then figure out the chances of each happening to calculate your overall ev.Try searching for bluff ev or bluff calculations.

http://www.science20.com/geek_logik/...uff_calculator

Here's an interesting article. If you'good at math or willing to learn, you might find this useful

thanx for link

im kinda of feeling the jump from 50nl to 100nl will be harder for me unless i get on top of my math anybody with more advice or would like to add anything would be greatly appreciated