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50NL AJo trips in 3bet pot river play 50NL AJo trips in 3bet pot river play

06-23-2015 , 11:01 AM
Merge - $0.50 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $95.92 (VPIP: 21.52, PFR: 16.71, 3Bet Preflop: 4.96, Hands: 5,540)
UTG: $49.75 (VPIP: 9.29, PFR: 6.32, 3Bet Preflop: 3.52, Hands: 8,704)
UTG+1: $45.86 (VPIP: 28.28, PFR: 0.41, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 245)
MP: $50.00 (VPIP: 19.52, PFR: 14.67, 3Bet Preflop: 6.20, Hands: 11,240)
MP+1: $51.99 (VPIP: 22.97, PFR: 4.05, 3Bet Preflop: 2.94, Hands: 76)
CO: $50.00 (VPIP: 14.77, PFR: 11.55, 3Bet Preflop: 6.45, Hands: 8,859)
Hero (BTN): $76.44
SB: $55.89 (VPIP: 12.05, PFR: 8.83, 3Bet Preflop: 2.43, Hands: 45,045)

SB posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has J A

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.75, fold, BB raises to $5.50, Hero calls $3.75

Flop: ($11.25, 2 players) Q A A
BB bets $6.00, Hero calls $6.00

Turn: ($23.25, 2 players) 3
BB checks, Hero bets $17.43, BB calls $17.43

River: ($58.11, 2 players) T
BB checks, Hero ?

I have $47.51 behind. Is a shove too thin? (Does villain have worse Ax here in his range? Villain's shown up with AQo+, JJ-QQ, AA in 3betting vs steals. Given those stats, is preflop a fold vs his 3bet?) What's the best river play?
50NL AJo trips in 3bet pot river play Quote
06-23-2015 , 11:42 AM
shove, your raise isn't even a pot sized raise. If he was willing to call a large bet on the turn on this board, he should call the river when another brick lands. He likely has a made hand here as he would bet the river if he had a made straight. He likely has an underpair or AK based on his preflop raise, but his passive play throught the hand shows AK is unlikely. He likely has 99-KK. While it is possible he has QQ here, the river check from a TAG usually means he doesn't have the nuts. I put him just about exactly on JJ or KK with his 12/8 stats. If he can call the turn, he can call the river. Shove is good.

If you had more behind, then you possibly would not shove over the pot. Pot sized bet or 3/4 may be good here.
50NL AJo trips in 3bet pot river play Quote

      
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