I haven't noticed villain but I have been 8-tabling which i am new to (and doing it on a laptop), however over 50 hands he is 10/8 with an infinite aggression factor. FWIW I am like 21/15 on this table and haven't shown down any significant hands.

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

CO: $53.05
BTN: $28.00
SB: $51.10
BB: $61.30
Hero (UTG): $61.20
MP: $51.75

Pre Flop: Hero is UTG with A A
Hero raises to $1.75, MP calls $1.75, 4 folds

Flop: ($4.25) 7 6 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $3, MP raises to $9, Hero?

Best course of action? Folding seems prudent...

this is pretty similar to a hand i just posted apart from i had position and there were 3 people in the hand...

surely you have to re-raise or go all in? he may have hit a set but he would also be doing this with over pairs too with the flush draw being there?

I think I'd call/get it in on the turn. Not really worried about a nit showing up with a flush draw here. It's basically smaller overpairs/sets you're worried about.

Shove the turn and check out QQ-KK or AKd.

Call and CR that thing allin on the turn

this is a fold, i'm sorry to disagree with everyone else

imho

care to explain why your opinion is such, good sir?

a 10/8 who limp/calls a raise is set mining. that said, I prob stack off anyways.

I think you should stack off here because he could easily be doing this with overpairs and draws. I also think the sample size is too small for this guy to be a confirmed nit.

Did a little checking with StoxEV to find out what a 10/8 doesn't raise preflop.

The remaining 4 hands are: KJs, 77, 66, 55.

I probably go broke here though.

I have no idea what you just said.

Haha. StoxEV is a really complicated EV calculator that you can find in the Software forum. Makes analyzing certain sequences a lot easier if you're willing to do the legwork.

In any case, it has a way to find out what the bottom part of a person's range is.

For example, a 10/8 raises 8% of his hands. The remaining 2% is the bottom part of his range. Assuming that he plays like his stats represents, and his range isn't like, raising with 52, 34, 64, and flatting just AA and KK, the bottom part of a reasonable range would be KJs, 77, 66, and 55.

if your reads are correct, and assuming he 3 bets at least JJ+ i think the only thing you can put him on is a set, 77-TT or kjdd+. I would consider calling here and reevaluating turn and river. My plan would be to shove any diamond and to c/c most anything else. If he shuts down on turn then definitely lead river, if not c/c. Best case scenario is that hes raising to "see where he is at," so don't let him know just yet =). His turn action will tell you a lot more about his strength (or lack thereof)

Edit: Boolean thanks for explaining that, Im going to have to check that program out. Not sure that that particular stat is useful here though, since he is calling an UTG raise. I don't see a nit 3 betting pre with 77-99 ever, or AQ for that matter, so i think his flatting range would be a tad wider than the bottom 2%. Also only 50 hands so its prob not an entirely accurate summary of his preflop play

Edit 2: he cant have the Ad since you have it =/ that weights his hands even more towards pockets obviously.

I'm going to assume he'd limp any hand he would open raise after a raise from villain, so his range is going to spill over into his PFR range as well... 2% is way too narrow here.

Thx, I'll go check it out.

If by limp you mean flat, then I disagree. I think a 10/8 probably 3bets a good portion of his hands. JJ+, AQ maybe, AK definitely.

So the remaining hands of his range that could hit this flop are 66-TT, TJdd/QJdd/KJdd/KQdd

Since we have the Ad, it makes villain doing this with a flush draw all the less likely. And I think against this dude, he'd probably call more often. Assuming he does this with 88-TT, easy call/shove/whatever:


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 71.207% 70.87% 00.34% 19645 93.50 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 28.793% 28.46% 00.34% 7888 93.50 { TT-66, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, JdTd }

If not, it's a fold:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.455% 33.13% 00.32% 3280 32.00 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 66.545% 66.22% 00.32% 6556 32.00 { 77-66, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, JdTd }

Adding JJ in the mix in case he flatted it preflop makes it closer, but still good:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.136% 55.74% 00.39% 8830 62.00 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 43.864% 43.47% 00.39% 6886 62.00 { JJ, 77-66, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, JdTd }


I personally think the last scenario is definitely plausible so I'd just shove. (Also, adding 33 in the mix makes it a little closer, 52/48 on flop)

50hands is lol samplesizaments, I probably 3bet flop and go wit it

Guys you are making way too much out of his stats. 50 hands is not even close to enough hands to tell you all that much. I am getting this in on the flop without a strong read other than hud stats.

I have no problem with getting it in here because of the sample size. I wonder however how much of a sample size and PT stats you would need in order to make this a fold.

i definitely see a raise PF with either KK or QQ so i think we can discount that from his range. that being said, the sample size is very small, so with that in mind i don't mind getting it in. sort of a crying shove imo.


how does everyone feel if the sample size is significant?

stacking off on the flop is such a bad play

because he has you beat

We have the Ad in our hand, so this is not possible.

Against a super nit I think we are almost always up against a set here. I think his CC-ing range is almost 100% small pocket pairs for set mining.. I think he slow plays a smaller overpair very rarely. I would fold against a super nit here.

Since we only have 50 hands on this guy however, I would probably stack off here with no other reads.

Overpair to the board seems more likely than a set IMO

Not convincing in a strat forum.