Villain is 8/6/2 over 70 hands.

Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: $53.80
UTG: $40.55
Hero (MP): $90.60
CO: $32.30
BTN: $56.25
SB: $79.75

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP with 6 6
1 fold, Hero raises to $2, 2 folds, SB raises to $6.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $4.50

Flop: ($13.50) 4 5 7 (2 players)
SB bets $9.50, Hero ?

ur 60/40 dog.

Now run with it.

...run with what?

ur not going to get paid if you hit. I'm pretty sure you have enough equity to get it in, so put him to a decision for all of his chips imo.

I mean extend your reasoning beyond saying we probably shouldn't raise. I think flatting or folding or the only 2 options worth considering.

Doesn't he have to be doing this with 2 overs allot of the time here to consider a raise here, being fairly deep.

Am I silly for saying I'd fold pf against such a tight player? It seems to me like the pf call is strictly set mining. Maybe you're deep enough to justify it with the implied odds of an overpair stacking off to you, but you've missed your set. If he's doing this with overs in his range then you're clearly ahead and should raise, any 3 bet stats?

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45,540 games 0.005 secs 9,108,000 games/sec

Board: 4d 5c 7c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.782% 51.98% 00.80% 23672 365.00 { 6c6s }
Hand 1: 47.218% 46.42% 00.80% 21138 365.00 { TT+, AKs, AKo }

Well, its fairly obvious that the has TT-AA 80% of the time and AK 20%. Raising and getting called here sux because hes probably never paying you off here if you hit. If you think he shoves then go for it. Calling sux too because again i dont think hes going to pay you off if you hit and you need to have a read that he will fold an over pair on a blank turn. I guess a fold isn't bad on the turn, i think its FPS if you try to take him off an overpair on the turn or river. Im also not sure if i call preflop as the only worse hand he can have is AK and you can't assume that everytime you hit a set he will stack off. I think against an ubernit like thisi stacks need to be like 200bb to set mine.

u fold here cuz if u hit ur 6 / 3 / 8 u wont stack him since he's such a super nit

u also dont get ne FE if u raise here so...

btw a nit doesnt 3bet with AQo. i'd say he flat calls AK more often than not

A guy who only raises with 6% of his hands?

Granted, this might only be over 70 hands, but normally you're an 80/20 underdog here (overpair). Only rarely will you run into AK/AQ.

I think the implied odds demand PF action as happened. Make your set, easy shove, otherwise tough decision (as here).

If we take his range as: { 99+, AJs+, KJs+, AQo+ } (top 6%)

then yes, you are actually ahead here (60/40).

Simple equity calculation basically...

No you are right, definitely fold PF, he is a nit, therefore his 3bet % is likely tiny too. PF you are way behind and you probably wont get paid off if you hit your set. As played fold or shove, you have an OESD and he likely has AA, KK, AK. AK you are 77% to win and have alot of fold equity. AA, KK you have 38% of winning at showdown.

But that's his pfr%, not his 3bet amirite, so we would have to narrow the 3bet range imo.

Considering you're both deep, I would probably call. Should you have standard stacks I would fold.

lets face it we know that this guy like always AK and QQ-AA here so with 100bb I think this is a +EV ship but since we are deeper im not so sure. it would be a redic huge over push to just push the flop. I think flating with the intention of trying to hit and get paid /rep a flush if it gets there is ok agianst this type of player who prob folds often on bad turns.

Im thinking he turbo ships any overpair on flop though I could be wrong, not sure if there is enough money in there already to make it +ev to get it in on the flop meh (at work).

given stacks its prob better to flat/fold here

After doing some of the math, I don't like a raise anymore. You need him to fold ~30% of the time to profitably get the money in, and I don't think he folds that often.

I think this is a fold on the flop, because he's probably just going to barrel the turn if you miss your outs and shut down if you hit one of your outs.

Given the fact he 3-bet to a standard '100BBs' amount and didn't consider the fact we were sitting deeper means he maybe doesn't overbet the flop here to protect his hand/stack, since he probably thinks I only call with JJ+/AK.

It would be quite interesting to see if we could represent a flush sucessfully. If the 2c came on the turn do you think we could shove over any bet and make it +EV, I'll prolly do the maths tomorrow on this.

This is a pretty interesting spot. Personally, I don't think a guy running 8/6/2 would c-bet this flop with anything less than an overpair. I think a call is in order here as I'd expect him to valuetown himself to death if you do hit the draw. If you think he could fold JJ or QQ here then shove, but it's highly unlikely unless he's level 3.

The more I think about it the more I like shoving the flop. While it is an over bet (64 into 32) you maximize you FE and if he calls you don't really care because you are willing to get it in on the flop anyway. I think shoving or folding > raising > calling.

definately not calling flop bet. either raise or fold. you never get paid off if the 4 straight comes. also folding pf is ok here too against a tight player

FYI, effective stacks before the hand started were only 160BB -- not very deep.

I think shoving all-in is good here for fold equity, and I really don't think that we're going to have the best hand every time we induce a fold, either.

Lol at you guys. He's totally paying us off if we hit. DUDE PLAYS 6% OF HIS HANDS! HE WILL NEVER FOLD AA, NEVER EVER EVER. He logs on, every day, just to wait for AA. He will wait, patiently, with 24 tables open, for his precious AA. He has 3bet you, and you called. It's a DREAM COME TRUE, AND HE WILL NEVER FOLD. However, he will berate you for your play after you stack him.

How about hero calls, and bet/shoves any turn. We know this supernit's not going to have more than a pair here, we could get plenty of FE on the turn. His bet on the flop is not big enough to build the pot up to the extent that he would be pot committed.

So call-bet/shove

fold preflop I think.

Call the flop; he's not folding an overpair and that's the only reason why we'd semibluff here. He's probably gonna check AK/AQ to you on the turn anyway, in which case we get the free card.

This. Just call, he'll 4-bet you or shove if you raise.

And the implied odds for setmining are greatest against a tight player, so calling his 3-bet PF is ++++EV.

The obvious draw is the FD here. I think your SD is disguised because there is a FD and its a 6.