Villain runs LAG pre 29/21/10% 3bet over 1.5k. Postflop he's on the more passive/stationy side. In single raised pots I have him folding flop and turn lows 20s and river in the 80s. Hero looks pretty taggy/straightforward 21/17/6% 3bet. Aggressive post. Haven't tangled too much with vil in the past.

He hates folding to 3bets, especially IP. Overall fold to 3b 37%, call 3b ip 67%!! He opens the CO 23%. In 3 bet pots over the sample, he's folding to cbets almost never especially IP, turn 50%ish over small sample, and river sample is too small to tell. I think it's safe to extrapolate from how he plays single raised pots, that his river fold will probably be pretty high.

I'm thinking this might be the kind of player that when I do 3bet I obviously should never be 1 and done with air, 2 and done might be okay sometimes, but I should empty the clip with air quite a bit if I'm going to bluff. With my "thinner" value hands I think I should be check folding the river a lot... Seems like he's going to snap check-back stuff like 88-99, 7X after being really stubborn on flop/turn. I doubt he's ever jamming these hands as a bluff when checked to on the river.

Anyways, I think there's no merit to c/c'ing river since he's so passive. The 10 seems like a pretty bad card as it'll improve a bunch of hands he gets to the river with eg QT and TT. I think jamming might be a tad on the thin side with KQ whereas if I'm holding AQ it's a no brainer shove. What do you guys think?

Yeah def x/f river against this guy given your description.

Thanks. Does your advice change if the river is a total brickball say a 5? What about an ace?

Probably not because of villains huge leaks. Both flopped sets are obviously in his range and I assume (at least) 50% of AQ combos given positions. You block spades ott also.

But then 3bet pot stats over 1500 hands aren't very accurate either.

hmmmm if he's passive enough maybe 1/4-1/3 blocking bet otr? either that or x/f river

I constructed this calling range for villian on the river I think it's pretty fair. That is about half the combos of AQ assuming he gets to the river this way without 4betting or raising somewhere, Half the combos of QJo. Since he folds the river a lot I discounted half of the QJo , But threw in some outliers in there JJ and ATss and Q9s. As much as I play with stove it's difficult to get your EQ above 50% on the river. So it looks like a c/f to me.


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32 games 0.014 secs 2,285 games/sec

Board: 7s Qc 2d 3s Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.375% 50.00% 09.38% 16 3.00 { JcJh, JcJs, JdJs, TT, 77, 22, AcQc, AdQd, AsTs, KQs, QTs+, Qc9c, Qd9d, AdQc, AhQc, AhQd, AsQc, AsQd, AsQh, KQo, QdJc, QhJc, QhJd, QsJc, QsJd, QsJh, QdTc, QhTc, QhTd, QsTc, QsTd }
Hand 1: 40.625% 31.25% 09.38% 10 3.00 { KsQs }


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I came to a similar conclusion the T is a really really bad card. In game, while rushed, I decided given the turn card it was an easy b/b/b on any river

Thanks looks about right to me. I think if he's on tilt or we had more history then we could add a few more generous combos and a shove might be okay. But as played I like cf

c/f , there is no value in betting.

KQ seems pretty thin here with the T river. Seems pretty thin with and without the T if you say he folds a lot of rivers. Your value range should be ahead of his calling range by quite a bit.

Vs a competent opponent we should be jamming even with 40% equity. When you check, you allow him to jam a balanced range which will net you less EV.

Not sure I agree with that. If he's jamming a balanced range c/c seems better

When you jam you can add relevant bluffs into the range for villain to be indifferent to calling (0EV), which means your bluffs will be >0EV. When you check, your hand is 0EV vs villain's jamming range, while his bluffs become >0EV.

EDIT: You still win less than the pot when you jam, hence why it's not for value. You just take away his ability to bluff when you jam.

I think I agree with this. Jamming because you are scared to get bluffed seems sort of bad.

Ah, this discussion again...

I would check and fold to a jam with the king of spades since you block his potential river bluffs with that hand.

Haven't read replies:

But I did read the entire original post. I'd check/fold (too bad we're not IP).

And the T seems like a pretty bad card for you. T, 9, 8 all seem like about the same bad (maybe T a little more than 9 and 8).

I like you line in i would likely bet again if the river was a brick, but the TT is bas for you since it hits QT or TT if he is stuborn to call Twice with them.
With that river i'm likely checkcalling small bets and folding to bets bigger than 55% of pot.
If i where to bet, i would bet bigger to scare him of bluff raising with a hand like As5s