villain is somewhat decent and agressive but calls too much oop post flop. so far he has caught me bluffing once in 4 games on the river (4 flush board he backed into jhigh flush and i had air) i haven't ran any big bluffs since and he hasn't looked up any river value bets very light but definatly is capable of floating flops and calls flops and turns too light at times.

Poker Stars $50.00+$2.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 2 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (BTN/SB): t1540 M = 51.33
BB: t1460 M = 48.67

Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is BTN/SB with 6 A
Hero raises to t60, BB calls t40

Flop: (t120) K 6 9 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t80, BB calls t80

Turn: (t280) Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t160, BB calls t160

River: (t600) T (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t400

i am wondering what you guys think of this river bluff. i think there is a very small chance i am good anyway on this river so if it works half the time i am beaten is this enough? also i don't know if the villain will automatically think straight or nothing when in reality i would bet fold a set or 2 pairs and maybe thiner against some players but prob not this guy

This board is way too connected. Check turn imo. If you hit flush on the river its going to be disguised pretty nicely

What was your bet-sizing on last bluff?
I think the line is good as we hardly have any showdown value.
I´d like overbet shoving, but the stack/pot ratio is a bit too high. This sizing will probably work too, if he is somewhat decent, but it´ll get looked up way more often.

If your not value betting a king on the river then he'll probably be correct in snap calling you with any pair.

I'd be inclined to think the board has run out too bad to bluff the river. 78 got there. alot of gutshot straight draws that float the flop got there on the turn, or hit a Q on the turn and got a straight on the river. Plenty of two pair hands he could have that should never be folding.

K2 - Kx folds on the river, maybe. 9x doesn't call two streets I don't think. I would check the turn and take a free card, lest getting RRed here would be horrible. I think I hate life and just check river. It's not the worst bluff in the world by any means, but since he saw you bluffing before, it's too murky. He could be check / trapping a good % of the time given the dynamic too.

well true but if you bet the turn and hit the flush, the pot is much bigger

Indeed. Just don't see a lot of fold equity and we are only 20%ish to hit

id rather bet 54h & ck behind A6h on this turn.

Hate the turn bet. River sucks, as you have no SD equity but I dunno how much villain folds Kx in this spot and I'm pretty sure he won't fold 2p+

why u hate turn bet? i value bet a Q here and should fold out 9x and puts presure on draws and weak kings

I dont bet turn either. Q doesnt change anything. If you wanna bluff the river i'd overbet it since he's calling you otherwise (usually).

the queen does change things if he has 9x 6x 77 88 10 10 (10s probly get a 3bet) and i do plan to fire a lot of rivers.

i don't understand why you guys think its such an easy call without a J on this river. he has only caught me bluffing once in a much smaller pot. i have been vaule betting thin and there are so many combinations of JX i can have not to mention combinations of 2pair + hands.

also i hate the over bet here because it looks so much more polarising towards nuts or air

I agree with this.
Also you relise we can acutally have showdown value on the turn, until we bet? His c/c range is different to his range when we chk the turn behind.
Im wondering what options we have on the river if we do chk behind the turn here?
Like we could raise a scary river card if he leads small( thinking his range is 1 pair, we rep a J, T, heart).
Bet a blank river if chk to and villan floats flop light, or just chk behind if air is in his range.
Fold to med size lead or bigger because its ok to fold now and then.
Just my thoughts really.

I think it's more or less fine. It's obviously not the only way of playing A6hh profitably in this spot, but so what?

Firing turn makes sense with our equity and to put pressure on 9x/6x/floats. Only thing is that your sizing is a bit small for my taste. I'd make it 200 to make it harder for villain to call again with his weakish pairs.

And river card just happens to be good enough to fire a 3rd barrel on since we put pressure on much of his non-Jx range that makes it to the river. Sizing looks fine. Note also that flopped or turned monsters (2p+ and sometimes even TPGK+) will often deviate from c/c, c/c ("villain is decent and aggressive") on the flop or turn and stick in a c/raise or something at some point.

yeah i agree with the sizing could be bigger on the turn. i kind of think in these spots when i check back the turn i am praying for a heart nless otherwise im done with the hand because players seem to look you up so light if you check back the turn.

what about the sizing on the river? some people think jam is better but i think that would look too much like nuts or air to this guy.

river, you can't rep a J.

check turn, he's not folding many better hands. and turn improves his range more than yours.

so i cant have 10J KJ QJ or any JX of hearts. never folding 9X or PPs on turn?

of course you can have those hands..., and a fd, and many many other hands wich try to get value from draws on turn or try to take advantage of the Q to barrel and push off a weak pair... basically to have a Jx you have to complete some sort of backdoor draw, and he's not going to believe you that often (i wouldn't at least).

also many 9x hands of an oop calling range include a high card wich is connecting to the board, i don't expect to get many fold from them on turn

I like turn bet if you follow up on most rivers.Unfortunately that river sucks so much i think i would give up here.I wouldn't bet unless i know he will fold all Kx,also assuming he is defending any KX.I would bet pot tho if i would bet.

Also our turn showdown value means close to nothing.