Hi,

villain is: VP: 16, PF: 12, AF: 2 after 500 hands; 3-bet is 6%, call open at MP is 6% and c-bet is 80%. He is positional aware, but a loosing player after that 500 hands.

I was playing a little looser in this session, something like 19/15/5.

We had no history so far...

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Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
SB ($94)
BB ($156)
UTG ($50)
Hero ($189)
UTG+2 ($20.15)
MP1 ($135)
CO ($100)
BTN ($52.45)

BB antes $0.10
UTG antes $0.10
Hero antes $0.10
UTG+2 antes $0.10
MP1 antes $0.10
CO antes $0.10
BTN antes $0.10
SB antes $0.10

Dealt to Hero 2 2

fold, Hero raises to $1.50, fold, MP1 raises to $4.50, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $3

FLOP ($10.55) 6 Q K

Hero checks, MP1 checks

TURN ($10.55) 6 Q K 6

Hero bets $7.50, MP1 calls $7.50

RIVER ($25.55) 6 Q K 6 9

Hero bets $20
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Preflop: I get the odds to set-mine and so i did.

Flop: This flop could hit both of our ranges hard. I don't expect him checking back this flop w/ KK or QQ, because he looses value from worse sets and AK. His c-bet is 80% so i think he would also c-bet AK. He probably checks back lower pairs, draws and complete air.

Turn: The 6 doesn't chang much, so i decided to bet, because he hasn't shown much strenght, besides 3-betting pre, and i hoped to take the pot down. Also i can represent QQ and AK. But he called.

River: On river i bet big, to make it look like a value bet with QQ or AK.


Is this an ok play or spew??

I really like it. I think you can also be repping JT here.

I think your ranging is good and that he is never super strong here. I think he can take this line with AQ/JJ (but can probably sometimes take it with AA too). I agree that he bets flop with KK/QQ/AK a LOT. If he does check back flop with these, he's gonna raise turn with KK/QQ definitely, AK sometimes.

I think the river bet is good because as I said he can't be strong here and you are repping really strong. The question is whether you think he can really hand read that well; if you are 19/15 and he can't hand read, he might just call down JJ/AQ or even like TT because he just thinks you are FOS. Your image in his eyes is really important here.

I think this is spew personally.
Even with a high c-bet I think he checks back here to allow you to make a mistake OTT when villain has QQ, KA, KK and AA. Another reason for villain to check back here is he realizes when you PFR UTG your range is a little more narrow and you flatting the 3-bet looks to him like QQ, so he realizes he's behind some of the time.

Trying to rep 10J is really thin and I don't think it's very likely he would ever even consider this hand or folding.

You're only getting Jacks and AQ to fold OTR, and I think he folds Jacks on the turn.

Would you honestly bet a flat 20 with a nut hand? Probably not, the size looks bluffy.

@robin: I'm playing a little looser in the last time, but i don't know how exatly he sees me, something between 15/13 and 19/15 with and AF of 4-5. But i'm pretty tight from EP 8-10%.

I tried to rep QQ or AK not JT. The bolted part is on what my bluff is build on.

Isn't that a reason to take this size with a nut hand?

Alex - What kind of hands in his 3bet range do you think are checking this flop this deep?

AA, AK, and maybe JJ?

Looks good, but when he checks this flop, I'd think he's trying to control the size of the pot with a medium/high strenght hand like AA/AK or lower pairs (less likely). I don't think he ever checks back draws or air on this board. I don't think either he's slowplaying a monster, you are deep and he would want to extract value on a board that hits your perceived range.

Without really solid reads, I don't think we can get him off his hand, unless we overbet the river for like $35 or something.

I agree with pot control. I disagree that he wouldn't slow play monsters. I think he checks these back a ton of the time. You're right on him never checking back draws or air on this flop though.

I'm not sure if he would play KK like this OTT as he would put you on something like QQ at this point and I think would raise, but tbh could just as easily flat here.

@alexx1 Is this your normal size with nut hands? If it is the size is fine.

I do agree with those saying that he can check back flop with nuts hands to allow hero to make a mistake, but I think once he just flats the turn he never has KK/QQ here.

Also I think bet-sizing is fine though maybe $19 would look less bluffy

so Just to clear up, your bluff line only folds QA. Everything else calls/raises.

folds Qx JJ/TT so if you decide to play 22 oop I think we have to make some moves to win pots from stuff other than flopping a set.

Probably still a fold pre though, we're oop and I don't particularly think if we flop a set and get crazy action that we're good alot.

imo if hes calling turn it was more of a pot controlling check(although no clue why anybody would pot control oop on that board but yea u said hes bad)

yea he could call with 10's/jj ott to fold river as well so i guess your river bluff is marginal but yea i guess its somewhat okay if hes the type to pot control otf but if he cbets alot and this time he decided to check i like your play otherwise its abit iffy..

totally with you on this. I think hero is relying a lot on the 80% cbet stat which isn't that reliable after 500 hands.

Also agree that villain can flat turn with TT/JJ after pot controlling flop, and then fold river. So the river bet folds out TT/JJ/Qx.

I don't think you can expect villain to check back flop and then just fold the turn with TT/JJ. If you assume he plays it like that, then you are basically saying he thinks TT/JJ have no value here and if that's the case surely he just cbets them as if he is cbetting air? Pretty sure that's a standard bad reg's thought process.

I still like it.

This is AK/AA a lot.

Got some nice posts here, thank you!

So we all agree that his range for taking this line contains medium strenth hands like JJ and AQ and probably AK or AA to pot control. KK and QQ shouldn't be in his range after he just calls on turn, it would be just really bad because he looses so much value.

I think when we bet on river we fold out AQ and JJ and some other stuff like TT. But what i also think is, if he has AK, it's not more like a bluff catcher, what worse could i be value betting? Wouldn't it be really bad to call river with AK, without any history vs a reggy villain who represents at least QQ? Some decent players may even fold AA i think... If we were not so deep, the best line to contiune the bluff on river would have been overshoving, but i can't do this 300BB deep.

bump.

I disagree with KK and QQ not being in his range, if he has this hand himself he would feel he doesn't want to raise and scare his action with hit nut hand. Also this lets you fire another barrel OTR where he can just raise then.

Jacks might be in his range but I definitely don't think 10s are in his range.

Also I think you're assuming he's 'good' enough to lay AA/AK down, unless you had more history I don't assume players are good enough to do this.

When villain takes the check back flop, call turn bet line here. I don't think they are folding much on the river that we don't beat already. Just fold pre, there range is too wide to set mine against and its just going to be tough to play 22 OOP on most boards

Unless your the biggest nit in the world villain isn't folding Kx, or AA ever. I doubt they fold AQ, QJ type hands very often at all either after taking this line

I assume they view your range pre to be mainly 22-JJ, some QQs with maybe some suited connecters. Qx is crushing that range so if they think your the type to stab at it when you sense weakness (ie the flop check) then i just never see them folding