No stats. Villain OR the Button, I 3-bet TT from the SB, he calls.
Stacks: 100bb

Flop: J87cc

I check/call a 2/3 pot bet.

Turn: 5x

I check/call a 2/3 pot bet.

River: 6x

Villain shoves all-in for about pot or a little less.




He likely does that with T9s, sets and 5x. All together a fairly small range.
He likely puts us on 99,TT, some Jx, maybe some 8x or 7x, overall not a
very strong range. I think he has far more unmade hands in his range than
nut-hands but I'm not sure if people are bluffing 3 streets for stack with these often enough.

Whats your default line here? Check/Call Flop will regularly leed to this missery and force us into tough calls. Or do you guys prefer betting the Flop?
Do you call the river?

are you checking flop with tp and overpairs?
do you have a club?
ap you can prob fold turn

I think I would mostly bet the flop with TP and Overpairs, unless its JT or J9. I didnt have a club!

Wow surprises me that you would fold the turn already. Is that because you think the pool rarely bluff 2nd-barrels these spots? I mean BU vs SB people call 3-bets rather wide... hmm

well it depends what you x/c flop with
if you only play JTs/J9s, TT/99 this way, I guess you can squeeze most TT in there as a call ott, more likely call with a club
but if your flop x range is stronger, I think you can afford to fold all TT combos
99 is a better hand to call because of the extra gutshot equity

it's just that this guy is betting big 2 streets , flop is good for him, turn is better for him, you can expect a lot of shoves otr

I agree with ionu I think folding turn is fine here. If we are checking most of our range OTF then TT is around the middle of our range so it’s fine to fold once he bets twice.

thanks guys

I guess you're playing GTOish? Or what do you mean by "if your flop x range is stronger, I think you can afford to fold all TT combos". Does that mean that even though the call on the turn could be profitable, you'd rather fold because calling could get exploited?

I did some simulations for calling the turn assuming that villain has a 15% calling range of:

55,76s,KsQs,AsJs,KsJs,QsJs,AsTs,KsTs,QsTs,JsTs,As9 s,Ks9s,Qs9s,Js9s,Ts9s,As8s,Ks8s,Qs8s,Js8s,Ts8s,9s8 s,As7s,9s7s,8s7s,As6s,8s6s,As5s,As2s

assuming he would always bet his best hands and using different bluffing frequencies for his unmade/semi-bluffing hands and always came out ahead with a call on the turn.

I mean I know that a complete EV calculation requires the hand to end, thereby, if he's shoving the river a lot and we can't call, the total EV might be negative, even though we may have the odds to call the turn. This is where I'm uncertain.

Do you guys tend to bet midpairs here on the flop? I guess it would be a much easier play, or?

I don't think you should fold the turn with the gutshot, you can fold stuff like KJ QJ instead

For me default line is x/c x/c x/f based on the assumption that people will double barrel but underbluff the river.

Misery is an integral part of poker.

Poker is pain, calling and losing most of the time isn't fun

well since when you x with initiative you have to play defense to the best of your abilities, you need to understand what your range looks like ott so you know roughly what hands can continue theoretically

you then consider how good the turn card is for your and his range and how under or overbluffed you expect that spot to be based on pop reads. since the 5 is better for him and I also suspect he's unlikely to barrel enough air (even when he knows you won't have sets and straights), I start folding the bottom of my range as a way to exploit him for betting too big with what I expect is a value oriented range (just my guess)

Missed the fact that TT has a gutshot (thought only 99 did) and Ojune is right that KJ/QJ are lower in your range because of this. There are a lot more KJ/QJ combos than TT and 99, so if you fold all those, TT should call

thanks for explaining! Would you say that the pool generally rarely bluffs in 3bet pots?