.50/1, Pokerbros, $100 effective, six max. Villain is VPIP 20%-32%, PFR<15%. Hero hasn't been at the table long, so his stats are unknown to villain.

OTTH

Villain opens UTG/LJ $2.50, rock calls CO, hero 3 bets BB $13 J J and only villain calls.

Flop ($29): Q 6 5. Hero bets $10, villain raises to $30. I assume this is a super easy fold, but I was curious, even before betting the flop - what do we do on a completely brick turn? Do we x? Or do we go for three streets using small sizing, given OOP?

Lastly - I've noticed I've been getting raised very frequently when I downbet flops - both in 3 bet pots and not. Do you think that I've been running in to the top of people's ranges more frequently lately, or do you think I'm being exploited? If the latter is the case, we should actually be calling the flop raise, right?

effect of lame ass "range cbet" most probably
that is the expected counter

Not a range cbet spot - I'd check JJ here. Especially with no .

So do we only range bet the driest of flops in 3bet pots then? If you x, how many streets are you x calling, assuming no more overs come and the board doesn't run 4 to a straight and no more hearts?

Deciding whether to range bet or not has nothing to do with dry or wet boards.

It has to do with us having an advantage throughout the ranges. So if we have more overpairs/more top pairs/more second pairs then we can start range cbetting.

It's our overall range advantage.

As a heuristic - you are going to want an Ace or King on the board to start range cbetting in this spot.

We have too much AK here to range cbet on Q high boards when the 2nd/3rd cards are not broadway cards.

You are supposed to raise a lot against small cbets, it's just that most people don't do it, but that's a mistake. Not on 3bet pots though, I think most good players don't raise a lot OTF IP in a 3bet pot so he's probably spazzing out.

On this flop he has picked up a certain nut advantage because he connects really good with the 3 cards OTF with all sets, many draws, some top pairs... and JJ is the hand you want to check the most in the whole deck on this spot.

Sadly if you range bet here there's no later adjustement you can do to overcome villain spazzing out otf because the flop+your leak allows him to do so.

EDIT: I solved it and it isn't SUPER terrible to range bet, but yeah if you do range bet here JJ is the hand that is going to perform the worst EV wise and you just bet/fold, so it would still be better to have a more complete strategy that allows these hands to be played how they want to be played IMO

From upswing:

"Here are some general patterns that I’ve observed on the flop (regardless of playing in position or out of position):

The dryer and more disconnected the board is, the smaller and more frequently solvers elect to bet overall.
The wetter and more connected the board is, the larger and less frequently solvers elect to bet overall."

Edit: We have range and nut advantage because of the board composition.

Which board sees more range bets? KT9ssx or Q72r? I think we can make a fairly confident assumption that it's the Q high board.

That's kind of a too generalistic view of it, if you look at solves you will find a lot that defy that rule of thumb. For example how much protection your range needs is a big factor from what I've looked at, how much the high card impacts your range vs villains range... if the wet board allows for actual straights or not... everything counts

And that was my point. Also, they were "general patterns", not set in stone rules.

Saying that the range bet decision is purely based on range and nut advantage, and that it ignores the reasons for the range and nut advantage.

My point was that a flush draw doesn't make much of a difference in bet frequency.

The operative word in your general rules is connected/disconnected, not dry or wet.

fair enough

That I absolutely agree with. Two toned boards can be "scary," but they can often be bet if the cards are not connected.

Hi,

do we cbet KK on Axxr, QQ on Kxxr, JJ on Qxxr or not?

Generally not, unless board is so good we bet everything
It would be a bigger mistake though to only check those hands and bet the rest like many people do, since it would be super face up